Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive through Friday afternoon, with too few to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $155/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $157-$159 and $1-$2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $157-$158. Dressed prices were $4 higher at $249.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $3.64 lower Friday afternoon at $249.93/cwt. Select was 44¢ lower at $224.56/cwt.

Cattle futures gained more ground Friday, led by Feeder Cattle and supported by lower Corn futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ higher (65¢ to $1.37 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 30¢ higher.

Corn futures closed 9¢ to 15¢ lower through the front four contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 8¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Friday after pressure early in the session from a stronger jobs report than expected, elevating concerns it would encourage the Fed to maintain its aggressive interest rate hikes.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 18¢ cents in November to $32.82.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 34 points higher. The S&P 500 was unchanged. The NASDAQ was down 20 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures closed 59¢ to $1.24 lower through the front six contracts.

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The U.S. government averted a railroad strike on Friday with President Biden’s signature to legislation passed by the U.S. House and Senate that implemented most of the contract brokered in September.

“A rail shutdown would have had significant and long-lasting effects on American food and agriculture and would have been devastating to the nation’s economy,” said U.S. Agriculture Secretary, Tom Vilsack,.

Likewise, Colin Woodall, CEO of the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association said in a statement, “A rail shutdown would have been disastrous to our supply chain, and would have interrupted the essential feed, fuel, and fertilizer shipments cattle producers need. We are pleased that this joint resolution was swiftly passed by Congress and signed into law.”

Feeder Cattle futures bounced an average of $2.01 higher Wednesday, helped along by lower Corn futures and bullish outside markets. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher, supported by stronger Crude Oil prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early live sales in the Texas Panhandle steady at $155/cwt. Prices in Kansas last week were $154-$155.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill. Live prices last week were $157-$158 in Nebraska and $155-$157 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $245.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 14¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $254.88/cwt. Select was 81¢ lower at $225.01/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices surged higher Wednesday, apparently mainly fueled by dovish comments from Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, suggesting the central bank may become less aggressive with interest rate hikes.

“Monetary policy affects the economy and inflation with uncertain lags, and the full effects of our rapid tightening so far are yet to be felt. Thus, it makes sense to moderate the pace of our rate increases as we approach the level of restraint that will be sufficient to bring inflation down,” Chairman Powell explained in a speech at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. “The time for moderating the pace of rate increases may come as soon as the December meeting.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 737 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 122 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 484 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.35 to $2.50 higher through the front six contracts.

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Although achievable, it’s likely going to be tougher than earlier imagined for cash feeder cattle prices to intersect with current late spring and early summer Feeder Cattle futures prices, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

“The dichotomy of feeder cattle prices lies in the optimism displayed in Feeder Cattle futures prices and the less optimistic CME Feeder Cattle Index,” Griffith explains. “The Feeder Cattle Index price has been stuck in the mid to low $170s for two months while Feeder Cattle futures have the May contract near $190 and the August contract near $200.”

Moreover, Griffith says the general economy and consumers’ ability to purchase beef will play a much larger role in beef and cattle prices than in recent history.

“As interest rates and inflation continue to rage, the quantity of disposable income available for beef purchases is likely to diminish given that income growth has not kept pace with inflation rates,” Griffith explains “The past 15 years have been filled with homeowners refinancing mortgages to reduce their monthly payments and thus result in more disposable income for other goods. However, the current interest rate environment will not provide many opportunities to refinance to reduce the monthly payment. This again begs the question if cattle prices can actually achieve the levels predicted by the futures market. Prices will certainly increase, but they may not reach current expectations.”

Cattle futures firmed and closed mostly higher Tuesday, supported by recently lower Corn futures and cash fed cattle demand strength.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ higher (7¢ to $1.12 higher), except for an average of 37¢ lower in the back three contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 18¢ higher.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower in the front four contracts, and then mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed fractionally higher to 5¢ higher through Sep ‘24 and then fractionally lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $154-$155/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $155 in Kansas, $157-$158 in Nebraska and $155-$157 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $245.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 21¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $254.74/cwt. Select was $2.71 lower at $225.82/cwt.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday with investors apparently awaiting key economic data this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 3 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 65 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 95¢ to $1.01 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agricultural exports next year are projected at $190.0 billion, according to the latest quarterly Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) and the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The projection is $3.5 billion less than the August forecast, mostly driven by lower export expectations for soybeans, cotton and corn.

Beef exports were forecast $500 million higher to $10.3 billion on increased higher unit values with expectations domestic beef production will decline.

“The global economic outlook for calendar year 2023 remains uncertain due to inflation, changing monetary policy conditions, and trade disruptions caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine,” explains ERS-FAS analysts. “Previous growth projections are moderated due to tempered economic growth in Europe and North America.”

Lackluster interest in Cattle futures carried over from last week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 92¢ lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were $154-$155/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $155 in Kansas, $157-$158 in Nebraska and $155-$157 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $245.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.70 higher Monday afternoon at $254.53/cwt. Select was $5.84 lower at $228.53/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 19¢ to 21¢ higher through Aug ‘23 and then 12¢ to 16¢ higher, supported by chatter about OPEC cutting production.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Monday with pressure from weekend COVID-policy demonstrations in China raising supply chain concerns.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 497 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 62 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 176 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 61¢ to 96¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Year-to-date beef cow and beef heifer slaughter represent the steepest decline of female beef cattle inventories in more than three decades, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

Specifically, beef cow slaughter is up 12.3% year over year, Peel says. “If beef cow slaughter were to decline to equal year-ago levels for the remaining weeks of the year, total beef cow slaughter for the year would be up 10.5% year over year,” Peel explains. “This would be a net beef cow herd culling rate of 13.1% for the year, a new record level. The actual culling rate is likely to be a little higher.”

Weekly beef cow slaughter has been higher year over year for 70 consecutive weeks, according to Peel. During that time, he says there were only four weeks when the year-over-year increase was less than 3%. Beef cow slaughter was 2.7%, according to the latest weekly data.

Peel points out beef heifer slaughter remains higher year over year, as well.

“The Oct. 1 quarterly Cattle on Feed report showed that the number of heifers in feedlots was still up 1.7% year over year,” Peel says. “Since that report, weekly heifer slaughter has continued to be up over 4% year over year with the most recent week up 5.8% over the same week one year ago.”  He adds that lower feedlot placements in October presumably mean fewer heifers entering feedlots and reduced heifer slaughter in the future.

“With drought continuing, it is not clear what to expect for cow and heifer slaughter going forward,” Peel says. “It seems likely that many producers have adjusted herd inventories, given hay and feed supplies, to be able get through the winter. This might mean that cow culling will slow down through the winter. If La Niña persists next spring, more liquidation can be expected going into the next growing season.” 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, with too few transactions to trend.

For the week, live prices were $4-$5 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $154-$155/cwt., $3-$5 higher in Kansas at $155, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $157-$158 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $157. Dressed prices were $3 higher at $245.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 73¢ lower Friday afternoon at $251.83/cwt. Select was $1.04 higher at $234.37/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter for the holiday-shortened week was 93,000 head fewer than the previous week at 581,000 head. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30.6 million head was 472,000 head more (+1.6%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 25.3 billion lbs. was 356.3 million lbs. more (+1.4%).

Cattle slaughter in October of 2.9 million head was 2% more than a year earlier, according to USDA’s Livestock Slaughter report. Commercial beef production was also 2% more year over year at 2.4 billion lbs.

Cattle futures drifted lower on holiday-lightened trade again Friday, despite fundamental strength for the week. Higher Corn futures prices added pressure.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ lower (17¢ to 95¢ lower), except for 27¢ higher and unchanged in the back two contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 19¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in away Dec.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher through Jly ’23 and the mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed fractionally higher to 3¢ higher.

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Major financial indices closed narrowly mixed after a short trading session Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 152 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was down 58 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.35 to $1.66 lower through the front six contracts.

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Annual rural population growth was near zero over the last decade, the percentage of the working age population decreased and rural employment growth increased in service areas such as health care and professional services.

Those are among conclusions in the 2022 edition of Rural America at a Glance from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“The overall decline in population growth and increase in average age in rural areas affect the makeup and availability of the rural labor force. In 2021, people 65 years and older made up more than 20% of the nonmetro population for the first time in U.S. census history, up from 16% in 2010,” according to ERS analysts. “In metro areas, just 16% of the population was 65 and older in 2021. During the 2010–20 decade, the nonmetro working-age population declined by 4.9% and the population under age 18 declined by 5.7%, while the population 65 years and older grew by 22%.”

There were 23.6 million rural (nonmetropolitan) jobs in 2019, versus 178 million metro Jobs, according to the report.

“Rural America has become more economically diverse over time, with increasing employment in health care, hospitality, and other service industries,” ERS analysts say. “Since 2001, the number of jobs in agriculture, retail, and manufacturing all declined, but a slight recovery occurred in manufacturing after 2010. Government jobs, which include Federal, State, and local government, remained steady over the last two decades.”

Packers were aggressive buyers Wednesday, pushing negotiated cash fed cattle prices $3-$5/cwt. higher on a live basis with moderate trade and good demand in all regions, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Live prices were mostly $4-$5 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $154-$155, $3-$5 higher in Kansas at $154 to mostly $155, $3 higher in Nebraska at $156-$158 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $155-$157. Dressed prices were $3 higher at $245.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $4.07 lower Wednesday afternoon at $252.56/cwt. Select was 85¢ lower at $233.33/cwt.

Higher Corn futures and light holiday trade pressured Cattle futures Wednesday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.66 lower ($1.10 to $2.43 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 51¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher in the back contract.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 7¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ higher through Nov ‘23 and then 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major financial indices closed higher Wednesday, buoyed by a more dovish tone in the latest Federal Reserve minutes, suggesting less aggressive interest rate hike may be coming soon.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 95 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 23 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 110 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.66 to $3.01 lower through the front six contracts.

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“The price of beef at all levels is expected to be supported the next few years as the domestic beef supply is expected to decline due to fewer breeding females,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “However, if inflation slows or consumers transition discretionary spending away from beef, then those factors will pressure prices lower.”

Although 30¢/lb. less than a year earlier, Griffith points out the average all fresh retail beef price in October remained at $7.25/lb. For perspective, he says the price in 2019 was $5.80/lb

“Seasonal tendencies have the ability to push retail prices higher or lower from month to month but strong demand and inflation are what have pushed prices to the levels experienced in 2022,” Griffith says.

Cattle futures traded mostly narrowly lower Tuesday after early support, pressured by holiday-lightened trade.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ lower, except for 15¢ higher in May.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 15¢ lower, except for unchanged to 25¢ higher in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, with too few transactions to trend.

Last week, live prices were $150/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $150-$152 in Kansas, $153-$155 in Nebraska and $152-$155 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed prices were $242.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $1.06 higher Tuesday afternoon at $256.63/cwt. Select was 95¢ higher at $234.18/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

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Major financial indices closed higher Tuesday, supported by positive quarterly earnings reports, lower bond yields and, according to some, investors betting on easing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 397 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 53 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 149 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 54¢ to 91¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Economic growth in rural areas continues to decline, according to the latest monthly Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI). It fell below growth neutral for the sixth consecutive month in November, although it did increase from 44.2 in October to 45.7. The RMI is based on a survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy. It ranges between 0 and 100 with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.

“The Rural Mainstreet economy is now experiencing a downturn in economic activity. Last month, almost one in four bankers, or 23.1%, reported that the economy was already in a recession,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

The November loan volume index dropped to a still-strong 65.8 from 76.8 in October. “Higher farm input costs, greater farm equipment sales, and drought conditions in portions of the region supported strong borrowing from farmers,” Goss explains.

The farm equipment-sales index jumped to a strong 59.5 from October’s weak 47.8. The index has risen above growth neutral for 22 of the last 24 months.

Bankers were asked if their banks were asking for increased upfront financial commitments for farm loans. Only 13.6% indicated an increase; the remaining 86.4% reported no change in upfront commitments for farm loans.

Slowing economic activity, strong energy prices, higher borrowing costs and elevated agriculture input costs pushed the business confidence index down to 27.3 from 30.8 in October. That was the lowest reading for the confidence index since May 2020, according to Goss.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, buoyed by the bullish Cattle on Feed report, stronger cash prices last week and weaker Corn futures on the day.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.65 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 85¢ higher (47¢ to $1.17 higher).

Corn futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower through Jly ‘23, and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower, pressured in part by worries about economic growth in China, due to rising COVID cases.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, live prices were mainly steady in the Texas Panhandle at mostly $150, steady to $2 higher in Kansas at $150-$152, steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $153-$155 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $152-$155. Dressed prices were steady to $2 higher at $242.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 70¢ higher Monday afternoon at $255.57/cwt. Select was 40¢ higher at $233.23/cwt.

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Major financial indices closed lower on fears of more COVID-hampered economic growth in China.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 45 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 121 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed mixed, from 35¢ lower to 51¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Feedlot inventories appear to have peaked, and cattle slaughter should begin to decline in the next several months, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments.

“On October 1, 2022, the inventory of heifers in feedlots was higher than the previous year, with the heifer percentage of total feedlot inventories the highest in 21 years,” Peel says. “The number of heifers in feedlots should begin to decline and will drop sharply when herd rebuilding begins. Feedlot inventories are beginning to reflect the fact that feeder cattle supplies have been declining since 2019.”

Peel explains both the drought and lingering effects of the pandemic pushed peak feedlot numbers into this year, well beyond the 2018 cyclical peak in calf production.

“The pandemic in 2020 caused a backlog of cattle in feedlots and in the country. As a result, the estimated feeder supply on Jan. 1, 2021 was higher than 2020,” Peel explains. “The drought in 2021 and 2020 caused cattle to be marketed earlier than usual and resulted in reduced heifer retention and increased heifer and cow slaughter in 2021 and 2022. Early marketing of cattle, reduced heifer retention and herd liquidation have kept feedlot inventories higher in 2022 and temporarily increased beef production. Beef production is projected at a record large 28.4 billion lbs. in 2022 as a result of the highest total cattle slaughter in 15 to 20 years.”

Cattle futures edged higher Friday, helped along by firm to stronger cash fed cattle prices and likely anticipation of a bullish Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 54¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to mostly inactive on very light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some live sales in the western Corn Belt at $155/cwt.

The last established live prices for the week were steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $150-$151, $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $151-$152, steady to $2 higher in Nebraska at $153-$155 and $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $154-$155. Dressed prices were steady to $2 higher at $242.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week was 674,000 head, which was 3,000 head more than the previous week, but 6,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30.1 million head was 459,000 head more (+1.5%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.8 billion lbs. was 346.8 million lbs. more (+1.4%).

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was $2.23 lower Friday afternoon at $254.87/cwt. Select was $1.09 higher at $232.83/cwt.

Corn futures closed mixed, from 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 11¢ higher through Aug’23, and then mostly fractionally higher to 4¢ higher.

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Major financial indices mostly paddled in place Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 199 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 1 point.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 96¢ to $1.56 lower through the front six contracts.

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As many expected, the latest monthly Cattle on Feed report (feedlots with capacity of 1,000 head or more) was decidedly bullish, reflecting the turn toward tighter supplies.

October placements of 2.1 million head were 138,000 head fewer than a year earlier (-6.1%) and the least for the month since the data series began in 1996.

In terms of placement weights, 48% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 39% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 13% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

October marketings of 1.8 million head were 11,000 head more (0.6%) than the prior year.

Cattle on feed Nov. 1 of 11.7 million head were 242,000 head less (-2.0%) year over year.

Cattle futures closed higher Thursday, helped along by lower Corn futures through much of the session, firm to stronger cash fed cattle prices and likely anticipation of a bullish Cattle on Feed report. The trend continued through mid-day on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.79 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 78¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mixed, from fractionally higher to 2¢ higher through Jul ’23 then 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 22¢ lower through Aug’24, then down 2¢ to 5¢.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow to moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Thursday afternoon with prices mostly $1 higher at $151/cwt., but a few up to $152, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Elsewhere, trade was slow on light demand. So far this week, established live prices are steady to $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $150-$151, steady in Nebraska at $153 and steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $153. Dressed prices are steady at $240-$242.

Choice Boxed beef cutout value was 1¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $257.10/cwt. Select was 39¢ higher at $231.74/cwt.

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Rising bond yields pressured major financial indices on Thursday. They were treading water through mid-day Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 8 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 39 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.46 to $3.94 lower through the front six contracts.

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Based on actual and estimated slaughter for October, weekday fed cattle slaughter was almost 1% more than last year and cow slaughter was up about 5%.

“With the poor pasture and higher operating costs than last year, beef cow slaughter is expected to remain higher than previously assumed through the end of the year,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “In addition, anticipated fed cattle marketings were raised on a relatively strong pace of fed cattle slaughter through early November, as well as relatively high numbers of 150-plus-day cattle in feedlots. As a result, the beef production forecast for fourth-quarter 2022 was raised by 215 million lbs. on higher expected total cattle slaughter, along with slightly heavier carcass weights.”

The 2023 beef production forecast was lowered by 90 million lbs to 26.3 billion lbs., more than 7% below the 2022 projection.