Weekly Market Highlights

Cash prices for calves and feeder cattle ran counter to futures expectations, which gained less support than some expected from the previous week’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Steers and heifers sold steady to $3/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). That was with 264,500 more receipts (auction, direct, video/net) than the previous holiday-shortened week.

“Buyers have become more meticulous when purchasing calves having a health program and ample time weaned,” AMS analysts say. “In times past, a 30-to-45 day weaning period was sufficient, however buyers are now almost demanding a calf that is 60 days weaned with at least two rounds of recent vaccinations.”

Winter weather impacted sales and buyer attitudes in some areas.

“Blizzard conditions on Sunday and Monday, from basically I-70 to I-80 hardened up some of the fleshy calves as cold temperatures moved in directly after snow dumped across the Plains,” AMS analysts say. “Another winter storm is forecasted to move through the Northern Plains this weekend and some feeders are content to have cattle sold before the brunt of the storm rolls through.” 

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.57 lower week to week on Friday ($1.77 lower at the back to $4.15 lower in spot Jan).

“Though there was softening, the futures market continued to trade above prices from two weeks ago,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The Thanksgiving holiday shut down several auction markets, while the futures market kept chugging along which impacted trends on the cash market.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained largely undeveloped through USDA’s late-afternoon report Friday. There were some live sales in the western Corn Belt at $115/cwt., unevenly steady with Wednesday’s $114-$116, which was $1-$2 higher than the previous week. There was some early dressed trade in Nebraska at $183, but too few transactions to trend (prices the previous week were at $180-$185, mostly $185.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.07 lower week to week on Friday (17¢ lower in spot Dec to $1.77 lower). 

“Cattle feeders and packers were slow to agree on a price with cattle feeders asking for prices $4 to $5 higher than the previous week, while packers were bidding $3 lower than the prior week,” Griffith explains. “It is highly unlikely the market will move much in either’s favor compared to week-ago prices, given the somewhat stagnant nature of live cattle futures following the Thanksgiving holiday. Cattle feeders should still hold some leverage over packers at this point in the game as holiday-season buying and restocking of beef counters post-holiday will keep the beef market supported. Cattle feeder leverage may be further sustained during the winter months if poor winter feeding conditions result in lighter weights.”

Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.24 lower Friday afternoon at $212.61/cwt. Select was 10¢ lower at $198.41.

In the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) note that since early August, Choice wholesale beef cutout prices stayed well above year-earlier levels. 

“In fact, the weekly beef cutout price for the week ending Nov. 9 climbed to within June price levels despite higher year-over-year beef production for third-quarter 2018 and higher expected production in fourth-quarter 2018,” ERS analysts say.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

There was no national price trend for calves and feeders, given the limited receipts during the Thanksgiving Day break. Where auctions did occur, trends appeared mostly to the upside, buoyed by recent futures strength.

“This is the first week where the market showed positive trends in most weights of feeders,” explained the AMS reporter on hand for Saturday’s auction in Kist, ND.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.95 higher week to week on Friday.

Heading into the new week, logic suggests calves and feeders should receive support from last week’s friendly Cattle on Feed report, as well as stronger cash fed cattle prices.

There were 2.25 million head placed in October, which was 6.06% less than last year, according to the report. Analyst estimates ahead of the report were for an increase of 1% more.

Cattle marketings in October were slightly more than expected at 1.89 million head, which was 4.78% more than last year.

Cattle on feed Nov. 1 of 11.69 million head were 3.18% more than last year, about 1% less than many expected.

Fed Cattle and Beef Prices Gain

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week ended up mostly $2-$3 higher on a live basis at $116-$117/cwt. ($113-$114 in the western Corn Belt), and $2-$7 higher in the beef at $180-$185.

Except for an average of 56¢ higher in the back three contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.52 higher week to week on Friday. 

Wholesale beef values managed week-to-week gains, too.

Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 94¢ higher Friday afternoon at $213.85/cwt. Select was 94¢ higher at $198.51.

Commercial red meat production was record high in October at 4.90 billion lbs., which was 6% more than the previous year, according to USDA’s most recent Livestock Slaughter report. For January through October, commercial red meat production of 44.4 billion lbs. was 3% more than the previous year.

Beef production for the month of 2.43 billion lbs. was 5% more than the previous October. Cattle slaughter of  2.96 million head was 6% more.

Pork production of 2.45 billion lbs. (up 6%), was record large, too. Hog slaughter of 11.6 million head was 6% more than the previous October.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Prices for calves and feeder cattle softened last week, pressured by seasonals, delayed wheat pasture and the lack of bounce in fed cattle prices.

Nationwide, steers and heifers sold $2-$6/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Over the course of this fall, feeder cattle buyers have been more stringent on health protocols. Buyers now have orders that require calves have at least one, preferably two rounds of shots, and be weaned 60 days or more,” explained AMS analysts. “In the Northern Plains, cold weather with poor yard conditions and many crops still waiting to be harvested have put a damper on procuring bawling calves at this time.”  

Not counting expiring or new away-Nov, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.28 higher week to week on Friday (57¢ to $2.72 higher).

Looking a little further ahead, analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) note in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO). “Winter forage seems to be in better condition than last year, which could provide a home for calves to stock over the winter. While this may be a positive sign for feeder calf prices in the coming months, limiting factors are the record numbers of cattle already on feed at the beginning of October and expectations of higher feed prices.”

ERS left the projected fourth-quarter feeder steer price unchanged from the previous month at $151-$155/cwt. The 2019 annual price forecast was lowered to $140-$151 on slightly higher anticipated feed costs and continued large feedlot numbers.

Fed Cattle Trade Unevenly Steady

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade remained undeveloped through late Friday afternoon. Although too few to trend, early prices in Nebraska and the western Corn Belt were unevenly steady to a touch softer than the previous week. Early dressed sales were at $178/cwt. in both regions. Early live sales in the western Corn Belt were at $111.50-$112.00. Late Friday, the Texas Cattle Feeders Association reported its members trading at $114, just a touch lower than the previous week’s weighted average.

Although the estimated number of cattle outside feedlots Oct. 1 (30.1 million head) was similar to last year, ERS analysts pointed out cattle are staying on feed longer. The estimated percentage of cattle on feed for more than 150 days in October was around 17%, which was approximately 3% more than last year; slightly above the average for 2013-2017, but less than in 2016.

Except for 5¢ and 2¢ lower in Aug and Oct, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 89¢ higher week to week on Friday (42¢ to $1.92 higher). 

In the meantime, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University points out in his weekly market comments that total cattle so far this year is 2.7% more year over year.

“Increased cattle slaughter, combined with an average of 2.3 lbs. increase in cattle carcass weights, both contribute to a year-to-date increase in beef production of 2.7% year over year,” Peel explains. “Total 2018 beef production is projected to be 27.0 billion lbs., a new record beef production total for the U.S. Beef production is forecast to grow to another record level of 27.5 billion lbs. in 2019.”

Wholesale beef prices continued softer after apparently reaching their seasonal peak earlier than normal. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.29 lower Friday afternoon at $212.91/cwt. Select was $1.15 lower at $197.57.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Steers and heifers sold steady to $5/cwt. lower, weighed down by volume, seasonal pressure and the weather in some cases. 

“An established pre-weaning and vaccination program has become a must for producers to receive top dollar this time of year (in between Halloween and Thanksgiving),” explain analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Many feedyards in the Upper Midwest and the Northern Plains have seen

their fair share of snow already this year…Muddy pens are sure to be a concern moving forward as the days get shorter, however temperatures in the teens in the midsection of the country may bring a welcomed freeze to ground conditions,” AMS analysts say. “Wind chills will be a concern this week, especially on incoming feedlot cattle, but it could be a blessing in disguise if copious amounts of precipitation can hold off for a little while longer.” 

Cash prices for calves and feeder cattle also were pressured by crumbling Cattle futures and a growing sense by some that the supportive fundamentals of snugger fed cattle supplies may have been priced in long ago, with trader attention now focused on increasing supplies next year.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.43 lower week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices lost ground. Live sales were mainly $1-$2 lower at mostly $114-$115/cwt. ($111-$113 in the western Corn Belt). Dressed trade was steady to $3 lower at $177-$180.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.62 lower week to week on Friday ($1.40¢ to $4.40 lower). 

“Many cattle feeders were asking as high as $118 through most of the week but settled for lower money as packer bids were lower due to the failure of wholesale beef prices escalating,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The price decline also coincides with live cattle futures losing value. The December live cattle contract traded near $117 most of last week, but it lost big on Monday and spent much of the week between $115 and $116 before surging higher on Thursday. Friday futures trade was not kind to cattle feeders as live cattle prices took another nosedive. It is perceived this weakness will be short lived.”

Following several weeks of seasonally higher prices, wholesale beef value faltered.

Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 lower Friday afternoon at $215.20/cwt. Select was $2.75 lower at $198.72.

Griffith suspects the Choice cutout reached its fourth-quarter price peak since holiday purchasing will begin to slow.

“The Choice beef market has been driven by the rib and loin primals with a little bit of help from the brisket. The next round of support for the beef market will be from the restocking of meat counters following consumer holiday purchasing. However, the restocking of the counter will come in the form of end meats including chucks and rounds,” Griffith explains. “As this shift begins, the Choice-Select spread will narrow, and most of the narrowing is likely to come from lower Choice prices rather than a strengthening Select beef market. Change is soon to occur but the beef market is strong.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Feeder cattle weighing more than 800 lbs. sold steady to $2 higher last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Feeders weighing less than 800 lbs. sold steady to $2 lower. Steer and heifer calves sold unevenly steady. 

“Demand for feeder weight cattle was very uneven and mainly depended on age,” say AMS analysts. “Especially 6-weight cattle that were either too young for the feedyard or too big for new wheat. Typically, this time of year, buyers are looking for cattle 60+ days weaned. However, this year, due to the wet and muddy conditions in many areas, 120 days seemed to be the earmark for numbers of days weaned. Demand for heavier weight cattle and those that would finish in April was very good.”

Not counting $2.30 lower in spot Nov, Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed week to week on Friday, from 12¢ lower to 42¢ higher.

“With ample wheat pasture virtually assured at this point, producers may stock wheat pastures a bit heavier than usual, leading to additional stocker demand in the coming weeks,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in is weekly market comments.

Although ultimately more than promising, early wet weather continued to delay wheat planting and development through Oct. 29, according to USDA’s Crop Progress report. At the time, 78% of winter wheat was planted, which was 5% less than last year and 7% less than the average. Emergence at 63% was the same as the previous year, but 4% less than the average.

There was no direction from negotiated cash fed cattle trade through late Friday afternoon, although general speculation was for prices to be at least steady, if not higher than the previous week’s mostly $114-$115/cwt. on a live basis and $180 in the beef.

Not counting recently minted away-Apr, week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 77¢ lower across the front half of the board (7¢ to $1.32 lower) and then an average of $1.01 higher.

Although Live Cattle futures continue to languish in a well-worn narrow channel, they and the cash market should continue to receive support from seasonally higher wholesale beef values.

Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.03 higher Friday afternoon at $218.50/cwt. Select was $2.64 higher at $201.47.

Although domestic and international demand for U.S. beef remains strong, same-store restaurant sales and traffic declined in September, according to the National Restaurant Association’s (NRA) most recent Restaurant Performance Index (RPI). It was 0.9% less than the previous month at 101.1.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Calves and feeder cattle sold $2 lower to $2 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), amid increased auction volume as the fall run picked up steam.

“Auction receipts were the largest since January,” said AMS analysts. “Several auctions in South Dakota had two sales this week to accommodate producers willing to sell cattle and the state accounted for over 18% of the auction receipts.” 

The lack of trucks stalled demand in some areas. As the AMS reporter on hand for Thursday’s sale at Billings Livestock Commission in Montana explained, “Transportation continues to be an issue as trucks are tight with many contract calves moving in the country. Buyers are reluctant to purchase calves they do not have immediate transportation for as heath concerns snowball the longer calves are under stress.”

As for demand, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University pointed out in his early-week market comments, “Stocker budgets for winter grazing still look quite favorable, unless grazing delays stretch out too long and cut days available for winter grazing down excessively.”

Not counting expiring October or newly minted away October, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 88¢ higher week to week on Friday.

Fed Cattle Mostly $3-$4 Higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices finally busted from the steady trench of recent weeks, gaining $3-$4 on a live basis in most regions at $114-$115/cwt—$2-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $112-$113. Dressed sales were $6 higher at $180.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.49 higher.

“Cattle slaughter continues along at a pretty good clip that packers have found to be advantageous to their bottom line,” according to AMS analysts. “Packer margins have been on the positive side for many months now, and they have done an excellent job of managing their inventory since Labor Day. Steer dressed weights for the week ending Oct. 13 were 899 lbs., 4 lbs. below the previous week.  Muddy pen conditions and lower temperatures nationwide the first week in October were contributing factors in the drop in weights.”

Fed cattle prices gained support from the seasonal boost to wholesale beef values.

Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.54 higher Friday afternoon at $213.47/cwt. Select was $4.59 higher at $198.83.

In his weekly market comments, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee explains middle meats are driving the increase in wholesale beef values.

“Middle meat purchases in October are generally due to entities preparing for the holiday season and trying to purchase inventory before rib and loin prices reach their apex,” Griffith says. “Thus, restaurants and retailers are trying to avoid being short bought and forced in to high-priced spot market purchases. At the same time, this purchasing habit generally leads to increases of beef in cold storage which generally peaks in the fourth quarter.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Steer and heifer calves sold steady to $5/cwt. lower, while yearlings traded steady to $3 lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). That was with about 75,000 head more selling at auction than the previous week as the fall calf run ratchets up.

“Receipts were much larger than last week as road conditions improved dramatically in certain areas, with dryer and warmer weather across the Plains,” explained AMS analysts. “In the Northern Plains, calf runs are just getting started and high quality weaned calves are in demand. The demand for un-weaned calves this week was moderate while demand for preconditioned and weaned calves was moderate to good.”

Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee notes that promising wheat pasture conditions in the Southern Plains and positive fall forage conditions in the Southeast continue to provide support to calf prices.

“Despite calf demand support, freshly weaned steer and heifer values have the potential to fall below $750 and $650 per head respectively, which would equate to prices declining $5/cwt.,” Griffith says, in his weekly market comments. “The risk of prices declining more than $5/cwt. on freshly weaned calves moving through the rest of fall is relatively small and will likely be short lived if it actually occurs.”

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 85¢ lower (5¢ to $1.92 lower)—an average of $4.79 lower in the last two weeks.

Fed Cattle Steady Again

Negotiated cash fed cattle traded about steady for the sixth week in row. Live prices were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $109-$111 per cwt, and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $109-$110. Dressed trade was steady in Nebraska at $174; steady to $1 lower in the western Corn Belt at $173-$174.

“Prices for live cattle will be expected to move in a positive direction during the fourth quarter,” Griffith says. “The results of the last month and a half may be indicating a moderate fourth quarter increase or it could be setting the stage for a violent surge in prices.”

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, but mostly lower from an average of 42¢ lower to an average of 52¢ higher.

“The October CME Live Cattle contract continues to run at a premium to cash cattle and nearly 150 certificates were tendered for physical delivery of cattle so far this month,” note AMS analysts.

Wholesale beef value showed signs of seasonal life. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.22 higher Friday afternoon at $207.93 per cwt. Select was $1.96 higher at $194.24.

“Demand has been a strong supporter of beef prices in 2018, and the expectation is for continued support. However, the market is also aware of increasing production, which will temper the price impact of demand,” Griffith explains. “Similarly, the red meat market is heading into the seasonal production peak for pork. Pork production is seasonally lowest in the summer months before peaking in November and December. The lower prices on hams and other pork products result in serious interest from red meat consumers. Thus, red meat production will keep beef prices from exploding to the upside.”

Feedlot Placements Decline

Feedlot placements in September ran against expectations and recent-month trends with 2.05 million head placed in feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity. That was 4.60% less (-99,000 head) than a year earlier. Keep in mind there was one less weekday in September this year, according to the most recent Cattle on Feed report.

September marketings of 1.72 million head were 3.59% less (-64,000 head) than the previous year. Expectations ahead of the report were for marketings to be about even.

Cattle on feed Oct. 1 were 11.40 million head, which was 5.43% (+587,000 head) more than last year. Most analysts expected to see about 6% more. Still, it’s the largest Oct. 1 inventory since the data series began in 1996.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Except for $2 higher in the North Central Plains, steers and heifers sold $1-$5/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Along with seasonal pressure, wet, muddy and wintry weather curtailed receipts and demand—from Hub City Livestock Auction at Aberdeen, SD to Winter Livestock in Dodge City, to Tulia Livestock Auction in Texas, and beyond.

“Health concerns are the biggest factor, with the big temperature swings this time of year,” said AMS analysts. “Last week, temperatures were in the 80s, while lows in the 30s and 40s followed just a few days later.”

Although calf prices turned softer, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, points out in his weekly market comments that the decline is so far less than expected seasonally.

“If prices were declining to a great extent, then that would provide more reason to wean and precondition calves this fall and winter, but the decision is made more difficult with relatively strong calf prices,” Griffith says. “The expectation of relatively inexpensive forage makes the decision more difficult. Understanding that cost of gain is highly variable across producers and production systems, it is difficult to discuss it thoroughly. However, most producers using grass will have a cost of gain between 40¢ to 60¢/lb. of gain. Value of gain is not an exact science, but it is a little easier. The current value of gain for adding 100 lbs. of weight to steers starting from 475 lbs. to 625 lbs. ranges from $1.02 to $1.24/lb. of gain if prices are locked in today and no value added premium is added.”

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.94 lower ($3.07 to $4.62 lower).

Fed Cattle Prices Continue Steady

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was mainly steady to weak with live sales at $111/cwt. in the Northern and Southern Plains; mostly $2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $108. Dressed sales were $1 lower at $174.

“Fed Cattle prices normally have upside potential this time of year, however muddy pen conditions in all major feeding regions have left many fed cattle owners willing sellers at steady money,” explained AMS analysts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.66 lower ($1.25 to $2.12 lower).

Likewise, the seasonals suggest wholesale beef value should start climbing sooner rather than later. As it is, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 54¢ lower week to week Friday afternoon at $202.71/cwt. Select was 54¢ higher at $192.28.

International demand continues to underpin domestic prices.

As reported in Cattle Current earlier in the week, U.S. beef exports topped $750 million in August for the first time, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Specifically, August beef export value was $751.7 million, which was 11% more than the previous year, easily exceeding the previous record of $722.1 million reached in May 2018. In terms of volume, August beef exports were 7% more than the previous year at 119,850 metric tons (mt).

For January through August, beef exports totaled 899,300 mt, up 9% from a year ago, while value climbed 18% to $5.51 billion.

“U.S. beef exports continue to achieve tremendous growth, not only in our mainstay Asian markets but in the Western Hemisphere as well,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “USMEF is excited about the recent market access developments achieved by the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) and USDA, with favorable terms being preserved in Mexico, Canada and South Korea and trade talks getting underway with Japan. A trade agreement with Japan would bring opportunities for even greater expansion as U.S. beef becomes more affordable for Japanese consumers and is back on a level playing field with Australian beef.”

Beef export value averaged $320.92 per head of fed slaughter in August, up 11% from a year ago. The January-August average was $318.66 per head, up 16%. Through August, beef exports accounted for 13.5% of total U.S. beef production, which was 0.7% more than the previous year.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Feeder cattle traded firm to $2/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Calves sold unevenly steady with buyers in some areas discounting un-weaned and short-weaned calves.

“Feeder demand improved this week as slaughter cattle pricing managed to hold mostly steady,” say AMS analysts. “Packers continue to work in the black as slaughter rates remained aggressive and finished the week at 643,000 head,  which was 7,000 behind last week, but 7,000 above of this time last year.”

“I really don’t expect much more increase in stocker prices, but additional increases are possible in the next couple of weeks. As we move through October into November, feeder prices are likely to stabilize or perhaps move lower, but the seasonal low may be quite muted,” said Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. The reason, he explained, is increased stocker demand given promising wheat pasture prospects.

Week to week on Friday, other than narrowly mixed across the front half of the board, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ higher (40¢  to $1.50 higher).

Although trade remained undeveloped in the Southern Plains, through late Friday afternoon, negotiated cash fed cattle prices in other regions was mostly steady with the previous week at $110-$112/cwt. on a live basis and at $174-$175 in the beef.

Live Cattle futures closed mostly narrowly mixed week to week on Friday, from an average of 32¢ lower toward the front of the board to an average of 24¢ higher).

“In the western Corn Belt feeding area, pen space is limited, and cattle weights continue to rise as farmer-feeders have experienced good performance over the last month,” say AMS analysts. “In addition, with the current corn values, farmer- feeders have plenty of feed supply going into the winter months, keeping demand strong for feeder cattle.”

Wholesale beef values continued seasonally lower. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower Friday afternoon at $203.25/cwt. Select was $1.70 lower at $191.74.

On the one hand, consumer beef demand remains stronger than many anticipated. On the other, competing meat supplies are increasing along with beef.

“Based on USDA numbers and calculations, per capita U.S. red meat and poultry consumption totaled 215 lbs. per person in 2017, which was 15 lbs. higher than 2014 and the highest level since 2007,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Projections are for per capita red meat and poultry consumption to be close to 220 lbs. in 2019 and 2020, which is a very similar total compared to 2002 through 2007. What is not similar is the breakdown between beef, pork, and chicken. In 2007, per capital beef, pork, and chicken consumption totaled 65 lbs., 51 lbs. and 86 lbs., respectively. Expectations moving into 2019 are beef at 58 lbs., pork at 52 lbs. and chicken at 95 lbs. These values account for production plus imports minus exports.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Cash and futures prices for cattle mostly faded the pressure of the previous week’s bearish monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Nationwide, steers and heifers sold uneven, from $2/cwt. lower to $2 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Herd health programs are becoming more of an issue earlier this year as temperature swings in the Midwest are ranging from the lows in the 40s to the highs in the mid 80s in a matter of a couple of days,” explained AMS analysts.

Week to week on Friday Feeder Cattle futures closed 20¢ lower to 25¢ higher across the front half of the board and then an average of 74¢ higher. That’s not counting expiring spot Sep or newly minted away Sep.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mainly steady with the previous week at $110-$111/cwt. on a live basis and mostly $174 in the beef.

“Last week’s large harvest of 657,000 head, if realized, will be the second largest harvest since July 1 and has the packers well supplied,” AMS analysts explain. “Coupled with this week’s harvest of 650,000 head, it would be the largest two-week total since mid-June.”

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher (2¢ to 75¢ higher).

Moreover, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, says in his weekly market comments,  “Lightweight placements since May will result in lighter and later fed cattle marketings and may contribute to relatively tighter fed cattle supplies for the remainder of the year.

“Despite more cattle on feed, the market price of finished cattle remains strong and continues to outperform year-ago prices,” said Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his market comments two weeks ago. “Cattle feeders continue to fill pens and the strong feeder cattle prices demonstrate how much cattle feeders want to purchase cattle. It would appear cattle feeders are expecting finished cattle prices to remain strong in the near term and escalate moving into 2019. This thought process may not be as wild as many think it is as beef demand remains strong, which supports prices. Does this mean finished cattle prices will only escalate through the end of the year? One should probably not be so bold at this juncture, but the market does appear to be holding its own plus some at this time.”

For demand perspective, Griffith notes the retail value for Choice beef retail value in August was the highest since July of last year at 608.2¢/lb.

Wholesale beef values continued seasonally lower. Week to week, Choice boxed beef cutout value was 92¢ lower Friday afternoon at $203.88 per cwt. Select was $1.27 lower at $193.44.

Cold Storage Increases

Total pounds of beef in freezers Aug. 31 were 4% more than the previous month and 6% more than the same time a year earlier, according to USDA’s monthly Cold Storage report.

Frozen pork supplies were 6% more than the previous month and 1% more than last year.

Total red meat supplies in cold storage were 4% more than the previous month and year.

Total frozen pork supplies were 5% more than the previous month and 11% more than the same time last year.

“There is no doubt there is a lot of meat in cold storage, but when put in relative terms, the numbers do not seem so large,” says Griffith, in  his market comments this week. “For instance, weekly beef production in 2018 has averaged 506 million lbs., which means there is one week’s worth of beef production in cold storage. Similarly, weekly pork production has averaged 490 million lbs. meaning there is just over a week’s worth of pork production in cold storage. One should note, the products (cuts, grind) in cold storage do not align with the products fabricated each week.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities