Weekly Market Highlights

Steers and heifers traded mixed, from $4 lower to $5 higher with lots of steady money, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Through the Plains, north to south, the strongest demand was for steers weighing 800-900 lbs., according to averages in the National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.

“Demand was good to very good at auctions as there were many more weaned calves with an overwhelming number having a total preconditioning program,” AMS analysts said. “Most calves were sold in moderate flesh, however there were some light-fleshed and some a little heavier at times. The mild weather has allowed calves to easily maintain and gain body condition.”

Except for 65¢ higher in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.30 higher week to week on Friday ($1.87 to $2.77 higher).

Despite languishing wholesale beef values and indications earlier in the week that cash fed cattle prices would be steady to slightly lower, prices surged higher on Friday. Through the afternoon, AMS was reporting live trade $1-$2 higher than the previous week in the Southern Plains and Nebraska at $118-$119/cwt. Late in the day, various sources were reporting live prices as high as $120 and dressed up to $190.

“It is difficult to determine which way live cattle prices are preparing to head,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “A breakout to the upside or the downside would be a little surprising, so the expectation is that finished cattle will trade sideways during the holiday-shortened weeks. January will provide a little more direction.”

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.72 higher week to week on Friday (82¢ to $3.32 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.72 lower week to week on Friday at $201.87; Select was $2.72 lower at $183.25.

Griffith notes wholesale values are slipping into the winter trend earlier than normal.

Even so, packer demand for the week suggests feedlots are current and that packers intend to keep running hard after the holidays.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Steers and heifers sold mostly steady to $4 lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Nice runs of longtime-weaned calves, along with fewer calves right off the

cow, were reported at most sales in the country this week,” AMS analysts explained. “Most offerings have now been fully preconditioned. However, weaned calves, in addition to the bawling calves, displayed a little extra flesh this week.”

Except for 50¢ lower in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.77 lower week to week on Friday ($2.05 to $5.10 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was $2-$4 lower at $117.00 to $118.50/cwt. Dressed sales were $3-$4 lower at $186-$187.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.04 lower week to week on Friday ($1.20 to $3.67 lower).

“Live cattle futures have certainly put a damper on cash prices the past couple of weeks, but cash and futures have not been in full parity during the decline as cash prices have only declined $6/cwt.,” says Andrew P. Griffith, Agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Cattle feeders do not have to be happy about declining prices, but they can take some comfort in prices not completely following technical trade in the futures market, which means cash trade is still taking into account the fundamentals of the market.”

“Packers have been aggressive in purchasing cattle, even though margins are not as desirable that they once were,” AMS analysts say.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 40¢ lower week to week on Friday at $205.59; Select was $2.36 higher at $185.97.

“It is unlikely there are so many short bought in the market place that Choice beef will surge in the next two weeks,” Griffith says. “Alternatively, it appears some beef buyers are beginning to secure inventory for Select beef needs for the winter months.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Despite building pressure on Cattle futures toward the end of the week, cash prices were mainly steady to higher across the cattle complex.

At auction and via direct trade, analysts with the Agricultural marketing Service (AMS) said steers and heifers traded steady to $5/cwt. higher.

“Demand was good to very good for all classes of cattle, even with many calves coming through the ring right off the cow,” AMS analysts said. They added that farmer-feeders made their presence felt at auctions from the Northern Plains to the Southern Plains, with harvest nearly complete and their focus turning toward adding value to corn and wheat.

Except for 50¢ lower in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.91 lower week to week on Friday ($1.25 to $3.50 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was generally steady to $1-$3 higher at $120-$121/cwt. on a live basis. Dressed prices were mostly steady to $2 higher at $190.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.07 lower week to week on Friday ($1.35 to $2.60 lower).

“Feedyards continue to market cattle in a timely fashion to keep the front-end supply in check,” AMS analysts explained. “Fed cattle harvests have been aggressive this summer and fall as both international and domestic demand for beef fueled packer profitability for over six months now.”

Wholesale beef values lost some steam, though. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5 lower week to week on Friday at $205.99. Select was $4.24 lower at $183.61.

“The expectation would be for the Choice cutout to be well supported through holiday purchasing and with some of the restocking of meat counters,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “However, no surge in Choice prices was evident this past week as prices faltered significantly. It is doubtful packers are concerned at this point as there are still a couple of weeks in which retailers and food service entities can make spot market purchases. Once holiday purchasing is complete, the focus will shift from middle meats to end meats, which will result in a narrowing of the Choice-Select spread. The concern here is if Choice beef or Select beef will do the majority of the moving.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

There was no national price trend for calves and feeder cattle, given the number of auctions closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Prices at early-week sales, like Oklahoma National Stockyards and Joplin, came under pressure in response to the previous Friday’s Cattle on Feed report that indicated more placements than expected. Late-week, as futures recovered some, demand was strong at auctions in Nebraska—Burwell and Ericson—as well as the Friday special at Green City, MO.

Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 higher across the front half of the board and then an average of 68¢ higher.

Similarly, negotiated cash fed cattle trade started out $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $118/cwt. By the end of the week, though, prices were generally steady to a touch higher in other regions at $120.00 to $120.50/cwt. Dressed trade was steady to $2 higher than the previous week at $190.

After an average of 19¢ lower in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 59¢ higher week to week on Friday.

Chatter indicates feedyards remain current and that packers remain aggressive, suggesting cash trade this week should be steady to higher.

“It will be difficult for cattle feeders to gain enough leverage the next few weeks to push prices higher than they have already been in the fourth quarter,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It may be risky to say the fourth quarter high for live cattle has already occurred, but it would seem the only way to push prices past the $124 mark again before the end of the year is if traders on the futures market begin a buying frenzy. Cattle feeders may have to wait until spring before they are able utilize some leverage on packers.”

After sputtering the previous week, wholesale beef values recovered some of the lost ground. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.75 higher week to week on Friday at $210.99/cwt. Select was even at $187.85.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Cattle markets started the week softer and ended that way, too, as wholesale beef values turned lower, cattle feeders took lower prices early in the week and packers are apparently stocked up heading into Thanksgiving week

Steers and heifers sold mostly steady to $5/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

Not counting newly minted away-Nov, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.55 lower week to week on Friday ($3.62 to $5.45 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mainly $2-$4 lower at mostly $119-$120/cwt. Dressed trade was steady to $4 lower at $188-$190.

“Packers still had an appetite to keep the chain speed ramped up for market-ready steers and heifers,” explained AMS analysts. “Actual cattle slaughter for the week ending Nov. 4 was reported near 646,000, around 13,000 more than the previous five-week average. The dressed steer slaughter weight has now been reported over 900 lbs. for the second week in a row, however still 11 lbs. under the year-ago published weight.”

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.46 lower week to week on Friday ($2.02 to $3.12 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.61 lower week to week on Friday at $207.24 per cwt. Select was $6.66 lower at $187.85.

“Retailers have been increasing beef specials, even with Turkey Day upon us,” AMS analysts say. “Standing rib roasts were the most advertised items on the National Retail Beef Report with nearly a third of all stores sampled having that item on their circular. Middle meat volumes on that report were nearly 75% higher than a week earlier.”

Heading into the holiday-shortened week, Friday’s Cattle on Feed report will likely add to the gloomy outlook. October placements were 10.2% more than a year earlier, and about 3% more than most pre-report estimates.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Judging by calf and feeder cattle auction reports during the week, prices trended generally steady to mixed, receiving more pressure from the futures market as the week progressed. When all was said and done, though, steers and heifers sold $1-5/cwt. higher, with some markets quoted up to $8 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) on Monday this week.

Although the price gap narrowed at some of the sales this past week, steers continue to command a heavy premium relative to heifers.

“Demand was moderate to good for calves that were preconditioned and weaned for an appropriate amount of time. Demand was light for calves with no shots or only one round of shots,” AMS analysts say. “With the current price structure of the CME Live Cattle contracts, the best demand is for yearlings and for those big calves that will finish before the summer months.”  

“It appears heifer prices are at a larger discount than is typical this time of year,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “With the expectations that the discount will narrow over the next several months—and certain the discount will narrow as weight increases—cow-calf producers may consider holding heifers longer than steers while stocker producers may see this as an opportunity to put together a group of heifers to background.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.06 lower week to week on Friday ($2.40 to $4.35 lower).

“The slightly softer prices in Feeder Cattle futures should not be of much concern to sellers as the market for cattle ready to enter the feedlot remains solid at this time,” says Griffith.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was generally steady to $2 lower in the beef at $190-$192/cwt. Live sales were was $1 lower in the Southern Plains and Colorado at $124/cwt. Elsewhere, live sales were steady to $3 lower at $120-$122.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.93 lower through the front four contracts week to week on Friday ($6.72 in spot Dec to $1.30 lower). After that, contracts were an average of 36¢ lower, except for 5¢ higher at the back.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.11 higher week to week on Friday at $213.85 per cwt. Select was $1.43 higher at $194.51.

Griffith notes packers may have some leverage to bump wholesale prices higher with holiday buying at hand.

“It cannot be reiterated enough, the market continues to provide producers value when adding weight in the short term,” Griffith emphasizes. “It is not certain how long this particular scenario will last, but producers should take advantage of this situation since it rarely occurs during the fall marketing time period. Attempting to look further into the future is difficult and less accurate, but producers could hedge nice profits on feeder cattle looking into the first two quarters of 2018.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Cattle markets continued to surprise plenty of folks with strength in both cash and futures.

Steers and heifers sold $2-$6/cwt. higher with instances of $9 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Cattle feeders are anxious to refill pens after selling cattle at $125/cwt., $14 higher than just two short weeks ago,” said AMS analysts. “Old timers will recall fed cattle moving by leaps and bounds back in the fall of 2003 and they all remember that what goes up usually comes down.”

Of course, the fall of 2003 was a completely different situation, when Canada was locked out of the international beef marketplace due to BSE and before the U.S. followed suit in December. This time around, it appears that pure demand economics are behind the surge in prices and volume of trade.

“For the past three weeks, auction receipts averaged 316,000 head compared to 289,000 for the previous three-year average,” AMS analysts say.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.05 higher week to week on Friday ($3.62 to $5.57 higher).

Cash fed cattle sales for the week were a staggering $4-$9 higher on a live basis at mostly $125/cwt. ($120-$122 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed trade was $7-$12 higher at mostly $192.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.29 higher week to week on Friday ($2.77 to $6.47 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher week to week on Friday at $208.74/cwt. Select was 60¢ higher at $193.08.

“Boxed beef prices continue to rise going into fall and analysts are suggesting that out-front meat sales are at higher prices,” AMS analysts say.

Domestic and international beef demand continues to underpin markets.

“The supply of red meat will continue to grow, so in order to benefit our industry we are going to need to export more product, and we fully expect to be able to do that,” said Pat Binger, head of international sales for Cargill Protein Group. He is the new secretary-treasurer for the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) and made the remarks at the organization’s strategic planning conference last week.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Calves and feeder cattle sold uneven last week—$3/cwt. lower to $3 higher—according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Analysts there pointed out that prices gained steam as the week progressed with the surge in cattle futures.

“Demand was moderate at best for spring calves and moderate to good

for yearling cattle,” AMS analysts said. “The long-weaned calves are in much more demand than the un-weaned, fleshy bawlers that will become more prevalent as the calendar moves towards Thanksgiving.”

Not counting newly minted away Oct, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.00 higher week to week on Friday ($1.49 to $4.85 higher).

Through late Friday afternoon, cash fed cattle trade was yet to be established for the week, although all signs pointed toward higher prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.92 higher week to week on Friday ($1.62 to $4.75 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.44 higher week to week on Friday at $203.30 per cwt. Select was $1.34 higher at $191.14.

“Demand for beef continues to be strong, though it has demonstrated signs of softening. Beef supply has increased and retail beef prices have decreased compared to the previous couple of years,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Consumers are buying more beef at lower prices than a couple of years ago but the magnitude of how they change together is needed to determine change in demand.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Steer and heifer price trends were wider and more varied last week as more cattle made their way to town, and with some futures price queasiness that may have been tied to speculation about the late-week Cattle on Feed report (see below).

“Steers and heifers sold very uneven from $4 lower to $4/cwt. higher with sales all over the board,” said analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.31 lower week to week on Friday (42¢ to $1.92 lower).

Many expected the aforementioned Cattle on Feed report to pressure prices this week. While September marketings and the on-feed number Oct. 1 were in line with pre-report estimates, September placements were at least 6% more.

Even so, calf and feeder prices remain higher than most expected just a few months ago.

“Cow and calf prices remain unseasonably strong as the market moves through the second half of October. The strength in the market has largely been due to strong demand through the entire cattle complex,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Moving forward, producers should expect slightly softer calf prices moving through November, but the risk of a major price collapse is small.”

Cash fed cattle trade ended up mostly another last-minute affair with mainly steady prices of $111/cwt. on a live basis and $175 in the beef.

Except for $1.15 lower in nearly-spent spot October and 20¢ higher in Feb, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ lower week to week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.64 higher week to week on Friday at $199.86 per cwt. Select was $1.09 higher at $191.14.

“The chuck primal is showing glimmers of hope, and it is providing support to beef cutout prices,” Griffith says. “It is still a little early for retailers and the food service industry to begin making major purchases for the holidays, but it will not be too much longer. The one flaw in assuming the holidays will help support beef prices is the expected flood of hams that will be competing for the holiday centerpiece.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Feeder cattle and weaned calves sold steady to $5/cwt. higher—as much as $8-$10 higher—according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Though the calf market has remained fairly strong through mid-October, purchasers of these animals face several risks that are accounted for in the market price,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “There will likely be continued pressure on freshly weaned calves moving through the next month and a half as morbidity and mortality rates become more of a concern.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.17 lower week to week on Friday (65¢ to $1.50 lower), except for marginal gains on both ends of the board.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were $1-$3 higher at mostly $111-$111.50/cwt. on a live basis and $175 in the beef.

Except for $1.80 higher in spot October, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 24¢ higher week to week on Friday; 12¢ lower in away October.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1 higher week to week on Friday at $198.22 per cwt. Select was $2.82 higher at $190.05.

“The beef market has been fairly steady for several weeks, but middle meats will begin to garner some attention as the market moves closer to the holiday season,” Griffith says. “The increased interest in middle meats should help spur beef prices to slightly higher levels in November and December before the winter market of end meats becomes the support system for wholesale beef.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities