Weekly Market Highlights

Feeder steers and heifers traded mostly steady to $7/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural marketing Service (AMS). Calves sold from $4 lower to $5 higher.

“Long-time weaned, preconditioned calves with a complete vaccination program saw sharply higher undertones,” AMS analysts said.

Except for 22¢ higher in recently minted away Sep, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.18 higher week to week on Friday ($1.72 to $2.92 higher).

“…the failure of the calf market to follow the strength in the feeder cattle market may be an indication of further seasonal declines in the calf market,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Producers should consider this when considering marketing options.”

Cash fed cattle trade remained at an impasse Friday afternoon. Higher futures prices and stronger auction trade of fed cattle early in the week supported hopes for steady money to a touch higher. Prices the previous week were mostly $108/cwt. on a live basis and $172 in the beef.

“The packer is making more money than the feedlot at this time which means they could pay a little more, but it is doubtful they are going to willingly pass some of their margin to the cattle feeder as a good will offering,” Griffith says. “The market will likely see more weeks of this action.”

Except for 57¢ and 45¢ higher in the back two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.79 higher ($1.37 to $2.15 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 60¢ higher week to week on Friday at $197.22 per cwt. Select was $1.27 lower at $187.23.

AMS analysts point out that winter wheat planting was 36% complete Aug. 1, according to the most recent USDA Crop Progress report. That’s 7% less than the five-year average. Winter wheat planting is 21% complete in Kansas, which is 18% less than average. It’s 30% sown in Oklahoma, which is 13% later than average. In Texas, planting is on par with average at 40%.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Steer and heifer prices started the week as much as $8/cwt. lower and then finished as much as $7-$8 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Overall trade was pegged at $4 lower to $4 higher.

“Demand for feeder cattle and yearlings was moderate to very good,” AMS analysts said. “For un-weaned or short-weaned calves, demand was light to moderate at best.”

The week got off to a rocky start with limit-down moves in Cattle futures, tied to the previous Friday’s Cattle on Feed report indicating more placements than expected. Although stability returned quickly, futures were hampered later in the week with positioning for the end of the month and quarter.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.32 lower week to week on Friday ($1.45 to $3.87 lower), including expiring Sep.

Cash fed cattle trade ended the week primarily steady with the previous week on a live basis at $108/cwt.—$1 lower in Nebraska. Dressed trade was steady to $2 higher at $172.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.82 lower week to week on Friday ($1.30 to $4.47 lower).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.02 higher week to week on Friday afternoon at $196.62 per cwt. Select was 23¢ lower at $188.50.

“September and October are two months when beef prices do more wallowing than moving in a defined direction,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “This is largely due to moving from the grilling holidays of summer to a time period of relatively strong beef supplies and indifference by consumers for beef products prior to the year-end holidays.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Feeder steers and heifers sold mostly steady to $6/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Calves sold unevenly steady. Judging by the auctions monitored by Cattle Current last week, un-weaned types are receiving expected pressure.

“Several auction barns across the Plains and Midwest are reporting higher receipts than a year ago. This is due to many bringing their calves to town after weaning, and earlier than usual,” AMS analysts say. “Load lots were scarce and buyers were willing to piece together loads this week.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.94 higher week to week on Friday ($3.17 to $6.90 higher).

Cash fed cattle trade was another late-week affair. Hope offered by the rally in futures prices and Wednesday’s weekly Fed Cattle Exchange auction finally translated to higher money on the week. Live trade in the Southern Plains was $2 higher at $108/cwt. Dressed trade was $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $170, with light live trade $1-$3 higher at $108. Elsewhere, there were too few transactions to trend.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.96 higher week to week on Friday ($2.05 to $4.60 higher).

Overall, AMS analysts described wholesale values as unsettled: starting the week firm to higher and finishing steady to weak.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 18¢ higher week to week on Friday afternoon at $191.60 per cwt. Select was $2.88 higher at $188.73.

Friday’s Cattle on Feeder report—more August placements than expected—might add some pressure to calf prices this week.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Markets and market players seem to be waiting for a seasonal bottom in wholesale beef values and cash fed cattle prices. By and large, cattle markets this week were a whole lot like the last one: higher calf and feeder cattle prices, scant fed cattle trade and rudderless Cattle futures.

Steers and heifers traded steady to $6/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Feeder Cattle futures gained ground, as well, closing an average of $1.78 higher week to week on Friday.

“Calf prices will likely decline a bit more to a seasonal low in October but are expected to remain higher year over year through the fourth quarter,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, in is weekly market comments. “Strong stocker demand for fall and winter grazing may limit seasonal price pressure this fall…While prices may weaken seasonally, I don’t expect a repeat of last year’s October crash in cattle prices.”

Live Cattle futures closed mostly higher, too—an average of $1.16 higher through the back five contacts, but with little conviction one way or the other.

Through late Friday afternoon, cattle feeders were passing most packer bids. There were a few trades on either side of steady during the week, but too few transactions to trend. Prices the previous week were mainly $105 per cwt on a live basis and $165-$168 in the beef.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 46¢ lower week to week on Friday afternoon at $191.42 per cwt. Select was $4.12 lower at $185.85. The Choice-Select spread was $3.66 higher at $5.57.

Monthly World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates released this week did provide some underlying support to cattle markets.

The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $2.80 to $3.60/bu. That’s based on estimated production of 14.2 billion bu.

The 2017-18 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $8.35 to $10.05/bu. on record-large production. Soybean meal prices are projected at $290 to $330 per short ton. Soybean oil prices are projected at 32.5¢ to 36.5¢/lb.

On the other side of the ledger, although beef production this year will increase, WASDE lowered the projected total by 140 million lbs.

The fourth-quarter fed steer price is projected at $107-$113/cwt., compared to $110-$113 estimated for the third quarter. The annual price is forecast at $118-$120. The projected first-quarter price for next year is $110-$120.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Rallying Cattle futures toward the end of the week helped support cash calf and feeder cattle prices, as did increasing hopes that wholesale beef values may have finally found the bottom.

Feeder steers and heifers sold mostly $5-$7/cwt. higher—instances of $6-$8 higher later in the week—according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Demand was moderate to very good, with moderate to active trade,” AMS analysts say. “Early-week auctions were sparse, as many auction barns were closed in observance of Labor Day.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.59 higher week to week on Friday.

Cash fed cattle trade continued at an impasse through Friday afternoon. Cattle feeders were eying firmer beef values and higher futures prices, while packers kept betting on their inventory and increasing cattle numbers.

There were a few live trades in Nebraska on Friday at $105/cwt., which was steady with the previous week. But, there were too few transactions to trend.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.78 higher week to week on Friday.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 53¢ higher week to week on Friday afternoon at $191.88 per cwt. Select was 68¢ lower at $189.97.

AMS analysts point out that adverse weather is affecting many along the Gulf Coast due to Hurricane Harvey; Hurricane Irma was aiming for Florida heading into the weekend; Hurricane Jose was on her heels. That’s besides nine states in the west battling wildfires.

“Drought has played a major factor in many of the fires, with 25% of Montana experiencing exceptional drought,” AMS analysts explain. “On a positive note, the Midwest and Southern Plains are experiencing cooler weather and/or plenty of moisture for this time of year. This has allowed farmers in the Southern Plains to begin working ground and planting wheat, which is one to two weeks earlier than previous years.”

“For lightweight calves, the price decline (seasonal) will likely be 4-8% from the August-average price to the November-average price,” Griffith says. “This will result in the November monthly average price being $6-$12/cwt. lower than the August average price for 500-600 lb. steers. Similarly, feeder cattle prices will likely decline 3-8% over the next three months.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Cattle feeders continued to be more bullish than underlying futures and cash fed cattle prices as they bid on calves and feeders last week.

Feeder steers and heifers Traded mostly $2-$7/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Calves sold steady to $3 higher; up to $8 higher for heavyweight calves.

After 20¢ lower in new spot Sep and 32¢ lower in May, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 66¢ higher week to week in Friday (25¢ to 92¢ higher).

“One could say the feeder cattle market has held up well through the fed cattle market decline, as well as holding its own against strong feeder cattle supplies,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It would appear cattle feeders have been betting on the come all summer…but if the finished cattle market does not turn soon, then it is likely heavy discounts will be on the way in the feeder cattle market.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at $104-$105/cwt., which was $1-$3 less than the previous week. Dressed trade was $2-$5 less at mainly $165-$166.

Except for $1.77 lower in new spot Oct and 45¢ lower in Dec, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 71¢ higher week to week on Friday, not counting newly minted away Feb.

At least wholesale beef values found some footing. Choice boxed beef cutout value was 3¢ higher week to week on Friday afternoon at $191.35/cwt. Select was $2.35 higher at $190.65.

Griffith explains that likelihood for the aforementioned price discounts for calves and feeder cattle, tied to declining fed cattle value, ignores seasonal pressure on calf prices.

“For lightweight calves, the price decline (seasonal) will likely be 4-8% from the August-average price to the November-average price,” Griffith says. “This will result in the November monthly average price being $6-$12/cwt. lower than the August average price for 500-600 lb. steers. Similarly, feeder cattle prices will likely decline 3-8% over the next three months.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

“Feeder cattle prices continue to follow the Board as the CME Live and Feeder cattle futures were mixed throughout the week, with Feeder Cattle seeing significant gains on Tuesday,” said analysts with the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) on Friday.

With that in mind, cash prices for steers and heifers started last week mostly steady to $5/cwt. higher, according to AMS. Prices were uneven at midweek, from firm to $4 lower and then as much as $7 higher for calves at the end of the week.

After 87¢ higher in spot Aug, Feeder Cattle futures closed and average of $2.80 higher week to week on Friday ($2.42 to $3.35 higher).

“Lightweight calf prices will seasonally be on the decline through November as many of those calves will be headed to grass either locally or in the Southern Plains,” explains Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Weaning the spring calf crop early can allow a producer to capitalize on higher prices, but it will also result in marketing a lighter calf. Thus, producers with spring calving herds should be considering several options.”

Among the options Griffith cites: weaning straight off the cow; early-wean and market calves at lighter weights; early-wean or normal-wean and then precondition and background.

“The correct decision depends on the resources a producer has available,” Griffith says. “Now is the time to put pencil to paper to determine the best route.”

Cash fed cattle trade finished the week $2-$4 lower at mostly $106-$107/cwt. on a live basis. Dressed sales were $5-$7 less at $168-$170.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.97 lower week to week on Friday afternoon at $191.32/cwt. Select was $4.20 lower at $188.30.

“There is a large number of market-ready slaughter cattle available, however, cash prices are now at or below breakeven levels. This may encourage cattle feeders to extend cattle time on feed in hopes that the end of the downward spiral is near,” AMS analysts explained.

After 42¢ lower in spot Aug, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.51 higher week to week on Friday ($1.02 to $2.07 higher).

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Feeder steers and heifers traded mostly $5-$10/cwt. through the early part of last week. As the week trudged along, prices were mixed from $3 lower to $5 higher, according to the Agricultural marketing Service (AMS). Prices in the Southeast were $1-$5 lower.

“Weather played a factor throughout many regions, with the Northern and Southern Plains seeing heavy rainfall and unseasonable, cooler temperatures,” AMS analysts say. This curtailed receipts throughout both regions.”

AMS analysts add that there was a larger volume of un-weaned and short-weaned calves, which were discounted heavily.

Except for 17¢ and 80¢ higher in the back two contracts, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.32 lower week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was $5-$7 less at mostly $108-$110/cwt. Dressed trade was $8-$10 less at mostly$175.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.31 lower week to week on Friday afternoon at $194.29/cwt. Select was $3.62 lower at $192.50. The Choice-Select spread of $1.79 ($1.43 a day earlier) was the narrowest since February.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.11 lower through the front three contracts ($1.47 to $3.50 lower) and then an average of 68¢ lower (40¢ to 82¢ lower) except for 20¢ higher in the back contract.

Regionally, weighted feeder steer prices were $2.36-$6.64 lower week to week (AMS National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary).

“The downward price trajectory has resulted in lightweight calf prices falling below year-ago prices, while heavier calves and feeder cattle prices are close to year ago-prices,” explained Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments on Friday. “The price decline may bring some angst to some producers with fears of cattle prices collapsing similar to the fall of 2016. The fear of such a price decline is understandable, but market conditions in 2017 are not the same as 2016. Calf and feeder cattle prices steadily increased the first six months of 2017 and have held fairly steady throughout the heart of summer. Alternatively, calf and feeder cattle prices reached their apex in early spring of 2016 before steadily eroding the last eight months of the year. Calf prices will continue to soften as producers increase cattle marketings in the next two to three months, but the probability of a price collapse similar to a year ago is smaller rather than larger.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Feeder cattle opened the week steady to $4/cwt. higher in the cash market, before the rout began in Cattle futures. By the end of the week, they were trading $3-$10 lower. That was for the North Central and South Central Plains. Prices were mixed in the Southeast, from $8 lower to $6 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Despite the lower market, low feed costs and the surplus of corn in farmer feeder country continues to spur demand for steers,” said AMS analysts. “Prices in the Northern Plains and upper Midwest continue to be the highest in the nation. Cattle producers in that area are taking advantage of the market before demand decreases as farmers will soon be busy with corn and soybean harvest.”

Open interest in Live Cattle futures lost more than 16,000 contracts during the week—strong, steady, daily decline—as folks exited, apparently growing more concerned about looming increases in fed cattle numbers.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.94 lower week to week on Friday ($3.32 to $6.70 lower).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $7.37 lower week to week on Friday ($6.40 to $8.62 lower).

Outside markets added pressure as major U.S. financial indices sagged beneath the weight of increasing tension between the U.S. and North Korea.

Rather than find and firm a seasonal bottom, wholesale beef values continued to lose ground.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.01 lower week to week on Friday at $199.60/cwt., the lowest level since February. Select was $1.19 lower at $196.12. At $3.48 on Friday afternoon, the Choice-Select spread was the narrowest since February.

Despite continued currentness in feedlot marketing, increasing numbers meant packers could keep adding inventory at lower prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was $1-$4 lower on a live basis at $114 (Iowa-Minnesota) to $116 (Nebraska). Dressed trade was $2-$5 lower at $183-$185.

Week to week, regional cash feeder cattle prices (AMS National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary) traded lower year over year for the first time since the end of April.

Memories of the last fall’s price collapse have plenty of folks spooked, of course. Calf and feeder prices broke hard to the downside after the first week of September and lost ground through October before finding some stability at lower levels than many anticipated.

AMS analysts note, “The last time cash fed prices and spot live cattle futures were this low was in December 2016.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Consumer demand, apparently positive packers margins and continued trade incentive for cattle feeders was enough to pull cattle futures and cash prices higher.

Feeder steers and heifers sold mostly steady to $5/cwt. higher last week, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Steer and heifer calves traded steady to $3 higher on light offerings.

“Receipts gained ground mid-week as CME cattle futures closed in positive territory on Tuesday and Wednesday,” AMS analysts say. “This, along with some cooler temperatures and moisture in much needed areas, acquired the confidence of producers. Farmer feeders continue to push prices to higher levels as they are banking on a good corn crop.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.33 higher week to week on Friday ($2.40 to $4.62 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade for the week was mostly $1 more than the previous week at mostly $118/cwt. Dressed trade was steady to unevenly steady at $187-$188.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.72 higher week to week on Friday ($1.42 to $2.55 higher).

“Finished cattle prices in the cash market appear to have support at the $117 price level, given the last three weeks of live cattle trade,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It is still difficult to say for certain that the summer low is in for finished cattle, but the last three weeks provide some credence towards the thought. The price level continues to be profitable for cattle feeders given that mortality and morbidity rates are still in check and feed efficiency is on par with previous years. If the summer lows are in, cattle feeders will look to slowly ratchet up prices in the coming weeks. However, if the market falters, cattle feeders will be scrambling for a method to slow the decline and reverse the trend. The expectation at this time is for little downside risk in the cash live cattle market.”

Wholesale beef values continued trying to establish a seasonal bottom. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.61 lower week to week at $203.61/cwt. Friday afternoon. Select was 49¢ higher at $197.31. The Choice-Select spread was the narrowest since March at $6.30.

“Since the middle of June the Choice cutout price has declined nearly 19% while the Select cutout price has declined about 7%,” Griffith says. “The rib and loin cuts have been the biggest disappointment for Choice beef as ribeye prices have declined more than 30% while many of the loin primal cut prices have declined 27-30% the past six weeks…Choice and Select beef cutout prices are 2.7% and 3.7% higher than year-ago prices, respectively.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities