WLI

Cattle futures stormed higher Monday, fueled by news that New World screwworm was confirmed just about 70 miles south of the U.S. border (see below) and traders thinking it will prevent Mexican cattle imports for even longer. Last week’s Cattle on Feed report may have provided some added lift.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $3.75 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $8.01 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on light to moderate demand in all regions, through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Southern Plains at $240/cwt., $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $236-$238 and $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$237. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $370 and $2 to $7 lower in the western Corn Belt at $368-$376.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $1.82 lower at $237.51. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $5.27 lower at $370.88.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 66¢ lower Monday afternoon at $381.39/cwt. Select was $2.17 higher at $362.09.

Soybean futures led the grain complex lower again Monday, pressured by Argentina lowering its export tax for a time.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ lower. Soybean futures were 13¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Monday with follow-through support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 166 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 29 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 157 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 4¢ lower to 6¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Late Sunday, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) confirmed a new case of New World screwworm (NWS) in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the state of Nuevo León, less than 70 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border.

This is now the northernmost detection of NWS during this outbreak, and the one most threatening to the American cattle and livestock industry, according to USDA. Sabinas Hidalgo is located near the major highway from Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, to Laredo, Texas, which is one of the most heavily trafficked commercial thoroughfares in the world.

“Protecting the United States from NWS is non-negotiable and a top priority of the Trump Administration,” says U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke L. Rollins. “This is a national security priority. We have given Mexico every opportunity and every resource necessary to counter NWS since announcing the NWS Bold Plan in June 2025. Nevertheless, American ranchers and families should know that we will not rely on Mexico to defend our industry, our food supply, or our way of life. We are firmly executing our five-pronged plan and will take decisive action to protect our borders, even in the absence of cooperation. Furthermore, we will pursue aggressive measures against anyone who harms American livestock.”

The previous northernmost detection was reported on July 9, 2025, in Veracruz, approximately 370 miles farther south. Preliminary reports from SENASICA indicate that the affected animal—an 8-month-old heifer—had recently been moved to a certified feedlot in Nuevo León from a region in southern Mexico with known active NWS cases. The potential link to animal movement underscores the non-negotiable need for Mexico to fully implement and comply with the U.S.–Mexico Joint Action Plan for NWS in Mexico, according to USDA.

Currently, U.S. ports remain closed to imports of cattle, bison, and horses from Mexico.

Cattle futures closed higher for a consecutive second session, and for the week, helped along by stronger outside markets and ongoing bullish fundamentals.

Live cattle futures were an average of $1.18 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.44 higher. Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.92 higher and Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $6.64 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light to moderate demand in the Southern Plains to limited on moderate demand in the North, through Fridy afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were a few live FOB trades in Nebraska at $237/cwt. and a few in the western Corn Belt at $236.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $240, mostly $2-$4 lower in Nebraska at $236-$238 and mostly $3-$4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $236-$237. Dressed delivered prices were $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $370.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $240 in the Texas Panhandle and dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $375-$378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.76 lower Friday afternoon at $382.05/cwt. Select was $1.39 lower at $359.92.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 552,000 head was 13,000 head fewer than the previous week and 62,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 21.1 million head was 1.6 million head fewer (-7.1%) than the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated total beef production of 18.3 billion pounds was 824.9 million pounds less (-4.3%).

Soybean futures led the grain complex lower Friday, with none of the hoped for mention in trade talks with China.

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Soybean futures were mostly 9¢ to 12¢ lower. Corn futures were mostly fractionally lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher again Friday, buoyed by the Fed interest rate cut and led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 172 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 32 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 160 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 87¢ to 91¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest Cattle on Feed report as neutral to favorable, with August placements on the lower side of expectations.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.78 million head in August, which was 196,000 head fewer (-9.9%) than the same time a year earlier.

In terms of placement weights, 35% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 46% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 19% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in August of 1.57 million head were 248,000 head fewer (-13.6%) year over year and the least for the month since the data series began in 1996.

\Cattle on feed Sept. 1 of 11.08 million head were 118,000 head fewer (-1.1%).

Cattle futures regained some footing Thursday with some likely positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on who you follow, August placements are estimated to be nearly 9% less year over year with August marketing down about 13% and the Sept. 1 cattle on feed inventory down nearly 1%.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $1.53 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.10 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to light on moderate demand in the North, through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Dressed delivered prices were $5-$8 lower in Nebraska at $370/cwt. FOB live prices there last week were mostly $240.

In the western Corn Belt, FOB live prices were steady to $3 lower at $237. Dressed delivered prices in the region last week were $375-$378.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live trades at $240 in Kansas. Prices in the Southern Plains last week were $240.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.37 lower Thursday afternoon at $385.81/cwt. Select was $5.06 lower at $361.31.

Grain and Soybean futures continued lower Thursday with harvest pressure, farmer selling and profit taking. 

Toward the close and through Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices road the coattails of the Fed interest rate cut higher on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 124 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 31 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 209 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 39¢ to 41¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projected feeder steer prices significantly higher than the previous month in the September Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Based on recent price strength, projections increased $10 in the third quarter to $353/cwt. and $18 in the fourth quarter to $363 for an annual average of $323.79, which was $7 higher. ERS estimated prices $12 higher in the first and second quarters of next year at $360 and $362, respectively, for an annual average price of $362.25, which was also $12 higher. Prices are basis a Medium and Large #1 steer weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS analysts noted the August weighted-average price at Oklahoma City was record-high at $355.55, which $20.46 more than the previous month and more than $121 higher year over year.

As noted in Cattle Current, the ERS raised expected average five-area direct fed steer prices, compared to last month, in the September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE), based on recent price strength.

Prices increased $2 in the third quarter to $240/cwt. and $4 in the fourth quarter to $244, for an annual average price of $228.56, which was $1.50 more. That was with beef production for this year estimated 100 million pounds less than the previous month at 25.8 billion pounds. The total would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.3%) than last year.

Prices for 2026 increased $5 in the first and second quarters to $247 and $248, respectively. The 2026 annual average price was also $5 higher at $249. Beef production for the year was estimated at 25.5 billion pounds, which would be 336 million pounds less (-1.3%) than this year’s projected total.

Cattle futures continued lower Wednesday, hampered by wariness ahead of the Fed’s interest rate announcement and swift declines in wholesale beef prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on moderate demand in the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $238-$239/cwt. Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light to moderate demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.44 lower Wednesday afternoon at $388.18/cwt. Select was $6.80 lower at $366.37.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of $2.04 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.51 lower.

Grain and Soybean futures closed lower with likely increased farmer selling. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with key news being the widely anticipated Fed interest rate cut of a quarter-point.

“Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year,” according to the FOMC statement. “Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has edged up but remains low. Inflation has moved up and remains somewhat elevated.”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 72 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 52¢ to 67¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gave back some of the previous session’s gains with declining wholesale beef prices and the outlook for perhaps lower cash fed cattle trade again this week. Pressure may have also included USDA confirmation the previous day of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 in a Nebraska dairy cattle herd.

Toward the close, Live cattle futures were an average of 58¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.16 lower, except for 17¢ higher in near Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle was inactive on light to moderate demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were mainly $240/cwt. in all regions. Dressed delivered prices were $375-$378.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.91 lower Tuesday afternoon at $392.62/cwt. Select was $5.63 lower at $373.17.

Grain and Soybean futures bounced higher Tuesday, helped by reports of lower corn and soybean yields and the lower U.S. Dollar. 

Toward the close and through away Jly contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 8¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices eased lower Tuesday, with profit taking ahead of this week’s Fed decision about interest rates.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 125 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 14 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) were 91¢ to $1.26 higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. Beef imports continue to rise with shipments from January through July totaling more than 3.4 billion pounds, up +30% (790 million pounds) from the same period last year, according to Livestock Marketeing Informatiom Center, in the latest Livestock Monitor.

“Available domestic supplies are expected to remain tight, which will likely continue the trend of higher beef imports,” AMS analysts say. “If so, this could contribute to lower available exportable beef supplies in the near term.”

Through the first seven months of this year, exports were 8% below last year in volume at 691,800 metric tons and down 7.5% in value at$5.67 billion, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation.