WLI

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Tuesday with pressure from outside markets and wonderment about this week’s cash fed cattle prices.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from unchanged to 12¢ lower in five contracts to an average of 13¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 20¢ higher, except for 15¢ lower in the back contract.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 higher Tuesday afternoon at $323.32/cwt. Select was $1.33 higher at $309.23.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally mixed. Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures  were 2¢ to 3¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 260 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 60 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 304 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 57¢ to 80¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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La Niña is ending and drought is expanding, according to the latest data.

For the week ending March 11, 43.6% of the nation was experiencing some degree of drought, compared to 22.3% a year earlier, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Painting with a finer brush, 7.5% of the nation was enduring extreme or exceptional drought, compared to 1.5% a year earlier.  38% of the nation’s cattle were in areas impacted by drought versus 18% a year earlier.

The U.S. Drought Monitor’s Seasonal Outlook through May indicated persistent drought and emerging drought across a wide swath of the country from the entire state of Texas and up through the Northern Plains, extending west to Nevada and down to Southern California.

In the meantime, odds favor La Niña ending and ENSO-neutral conditions emerging in the next month, according to the latest La Niña Advisory from NOAA’s National Weather Center.

Cattle futures closed higher Monday, supported by last week’s bounce in cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.77 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.74 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $5-$6 higher in the Southern Plains at $202-$203/cwt. and $4-$6 higher in the North at $206/cwt. Dressed delivered prices were $8-$10 higher in Nebraska at $325 and $5-$10 higher in the western Corn Belt at $325.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $5.02 higher at $205.30. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $8.54 higher at $324.97.

Choice boxed beef cutout value $2.89 higher Monday afternoon at $321.16/cwt. Select was $1.58 higher at $307.90.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Kansas City Wheat futures 18¢ to 19¢ higher with traders apparently adding premium. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued to advance Monday in the wake of the recent selloff.  

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 353 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 54 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 35¢ to 52¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased projected feeder steer prices for this year for all quarters, compared to the previous month, in the March Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices were forecast at $273 in the first and second quarters, $274 in the third quarter and $279 in the fourth quarter for an annual average of $274.75. Prices are basis Med. and Lg. #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs., selling at Oklahoma City.

“The combination of tight supplies of feeder cattle, the recently constrained pace of cattle imports from Mexico due to protocols to mitigate the spread of New World Screwworm, and uncertainty surrounding the terms of trade for cattle imported from Canada and Mexico are creating some volatility, pushing prices higher for U.S. feeders and stocker operations to secure their cattle needs,” say ERS analysts.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, USDA’s Economic Research Service lowered expectations for the five-area direct weighted average fed steer price in the first half of this year, compared to the previous month’s forecast, but left them unchanged for the second half, in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Specifically, prices were projected $3 lower in the first quarter at $202/cwt. and $2 lower in the second quarter at $198, based on recent prices. Prices were forecast at $198 in the third quarter and at $200 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $200, which was $1 lower than the previous month’s outlook.

Forecast beef production increased by 120 million pounds (0.5%) to 26.7 billion pounds with heavier dressed weights more than offsetting lower slaughter. This year’s projected beef production would be 303 million pounds less (-1.1%) than last year.

Cash fed cattle prices helped lead Cattle futures higher Friday and for the week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light to moderate on good demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $3-$5 higher at $205/cwt. in a light test. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $8-$10 higher at $325. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt the previous week were $315-$320.

Trade in the Southern Plains was light to moderate on good demand. Although too few transactions for a trend, there were some FOB live trades at mostly $202. The previous week, prices in the region were $197.

Wholesale beef values softened on the day with Choice boxed beef cutout value $1.42 lower Friday afternoon at $318.27/cwt. Select was $1.15 lower at $306.32. Week to week, however, Choice was $3.37 higher and Select was 52¢ higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 587,000 head was 9,000 head more than the previous week. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 6.1 million head was 417,000 head fewer (-6.4%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 5.3 billion pounds was 123.1 million pounds less (-2.3%).

As alluded to, Cattle futures closed higher Friday, fueled by stronger cash fed cattle prices and continued feeder cattle bullishness in the country.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 72¢ higher (30¢ higher at the back to $1.12 higher at the front). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ higher (27¢ higher at the back to $1.75 at the front).

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.32 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.76 higher.

Turning to the grain complex Friday, futures were mixed with likely profit taking and position squaring.

Corn futures were 1¢ to 8¢ lower through Dec ‘25 and then unchanged to fractionally lower. Kansas City Wheat futures 1¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were mostly 5¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Friday helped by chatter about a budget agreement in place to avoid a government shutdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 674 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 117 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 551 points.

Indices were lower week to week, though, beneath the weights of tariff confusion, worries about domestic economic growth and sagging consumer confidence.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 54¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Domestic consumer beef demand continues at a strong pace, based on a recent reading of consumers’ willingness to pay for their protein of choice.

The Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) provides an overview in the latest Livestock Monitor, based on February retail meat prices reported by USDA.

“The price of all fresh retail beef rose by 6.2% to $8.32 per pound, retail pork prices increased by 1.6% to $4.84 per pound and retail broiler prices climbed 5.1% to $2.05 per pound,” according to LMIC analysts.

More specifically, those analysts explain prices for all uncooked ground beef reached $5.96 per lb., reflecting an 8.8% increase year over year. Beef roast prices also rose 8.8% nearly $8.00 per pound.

“Choice steak prices recorded a 7.6% increase from the previous year, reaching $8.49 per pound,” LMIC analysts say. “Choice sirloin steaks were priced at $11.90 per pound., marking an increase of 1.6%.”

Cattle futures were mixed Thursday with support from growing optimism about cash fed cattle prices this week but pressure from bearish outside markets.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were mixed, from unchanged to an average of 22¢ lower in four contracts to an average of 48¢ higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 60¢ lower, except for unchanged to an average of 20¢ higher in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200-$202 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $315-$317 in Nebraska and $315-$320 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.41 lower Thursday afternoon at $319.69/cwt. Select was 6¢ lower at $307.47

Grain and Soybean futures were higher Thursday, helped along by stronger weekly exports.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures 13¢ to 15¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 11¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed sharply lower Thursday amid more tariff threats from the White House.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 537 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 77 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 345 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 98¢ to $1.12 lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures gained traction Wednesday with recently stronger wholesale beef values and prospects of higher cash fed cattle prices this week.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.51 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.92 higher

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was limited on light demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades at $200/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $197/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $200-$202 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $315-$317 in Nebraska and $315-$320 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 10¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $321.10/cwt. Select was 67¢ higher at $307.53

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 7¢ to 8¢ lower, pressured by concerns about Canada imposing tariffs on U.S. ethanol imports if the trade war escalates.

Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday with support including a more friendly inflation reading than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, after rising 0.5% in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.8% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 82 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 212 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.34 to $1.45 higher through the front six contracts.