WLI

Cattle futures closed higher Friday, helped along by rebounding outside markets and steady to higher cash fed cattle prices.  .

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.26 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.14 higher (62¢ higher at the back to $1.85 higher toward the front).   

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.00 lower ($1.00 to $3.62 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.63 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on very light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light to moderate demand elsewhere, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in Kansas at $191/cwt., unevenly steady in Nebraska at $195-$195.50 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $195-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $305, which was steady to $5 higher in Nebraska and steady to $3 higher in the western Corn Belt. FOB live prices in the Texas Panhandle the previous week were $191-$192 in a light test.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.84 lower Friday afternoon at $315.85/cwt. Select was $1.80 higher at $285.91.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 617,000 head was 8,000 head more than the previous week but 4,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 30.6 million head was 1.1 million head less (-3.6%) year over year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 26 billion pounds was 121.3 million pounds less (-0.5%).

Soybean futures were 10¢ to 13¢ higher through Aug ’26 and then mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher, supported by short covering. Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, boosted by a tamer inflation reading.

The personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE) was 2.4% higher year over year in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. That was less than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 498 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 196 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view the latest monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral to slightly bearish.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.8 million head in November, which was 69,000 head fewer (-3.7%) year over year. That was 0.4% more than expectations ahead of the report.

Marketings in November of 1.7 million head were 26,000 head fewer (1.5%) than the same timer a year earlier. That was just fractionally more than pre-report estimates.

Cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 12 million head were 34,000 head fewer year over year, which was slightly lower than the previous year and in line with projections ahead of the report.

Cattle futures moved lower Thursday with the lack of weekly cash fed cattle trade direction and perhaps wariness over Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.97 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.81 lower.       

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to light on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.85 higher Thursday afternoon at $320.69/cwt. Select was $1.44 lower at $284.11.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Thursday, with a bounce in Soybeans after recent aggressive selling.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Soybean futures were 11¢ to 13¢ higher. Corn futures were 2¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices firmed Thursday but appeared to remain in correction mode.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 5 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 19 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 73¢ to 89¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures softened Wednesday as wholesale beef values weakened, outside markets turned negative, and perhaps with some early positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 72¢ lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 79¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand in Nebraska to inactive on very light demand elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ lower Wednesday afternoon at $314.84/cwt. Select was $2.95 lower at $285.55.

Grain and Soybean closed lower again on Wednesday, once again led by Soybeans.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 5¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower. Soybean futures were 24¢ to 26¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices sank sharply lower Thursday pressured by a more hawkish outlook for interest rates.

The Fed cut interest rates by another 0.25% on Wednesday, as was widely expected. However, the latest FOMC outlook suggests the potential for more restrictive cuts in 2025 than originally expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 1,123 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 178 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 716 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 8¢ to 37¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures firmed but closed mixed on Tuesday.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.80 higher. Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed from an average of 21¢ lower, to an average of 19¢ higher.

Given the temporary suspension of Mexican cattle imports, and the timing late last month, it will be interesting to see how traders position ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report. Depending on the source, analyst estimates ahead of the report see November placements about 4% less year over year and marketings down about 2%, leaving cattle on feed Dec. 1 about even.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $191-$192/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $191 in Kansas, $195 in Nebraska and $193-$196 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $300-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.74 lower Tuesday afternoon at $315.63/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $288.50.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday with apparent profit taking and repositioning ahead of the Fed’s next decision about interest rates on Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 267 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 23 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 64 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 41¢ to 47¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Calf prices are ending the year on an extraordinarily strong note.

“Calf prices for 5- and 6-weight animals in the Southern Plains have advanced better than $50/cwt. in the last four weeks, and prices for 4- and 5-weight animals have moved further,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center.

Koontz points out calf price strength belies firming grain prices and the looming seasonal decline in wholesale beef values.

Likewise, while strong, Koontz views cash fed cattle prices as rangebound while steer carcass weights are averaging about 40 pounds more year over year with fed heifers following a similar trend. He says both the heavier weights and front-loaded fed cattle inventory will likely hang over the market.

“The calculated cattle on feed over 150 days has been larger than any of the proceeding years – other than 2020 – but this inventory has been moving lower through the summer and fall with exception of November,” Koontz explains. “The pipeline is full for the near term and less so into next year. But then there are first-quarter packer margins to navigate.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $191-$192/cwt, steady in Kansas at $191, $4-$6 higher in Nebraska at $196 and $3-$4 higher in the western Corn Belt at $193-$196. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$8 higher in Nebraska at $300-$305 and $5-$8 higher in the western Corn Belt at $302-$305.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live fed steer price last week was $3.41 higher at $194.31/cwt. The weighted averaged dressed delivered fed steer price was $6.23 higher at $297.21.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 98¢ higher Monday afternoon at $317.37/cwt. Select was $5.71 higher at $289.57.

Cattle futures closed lower Monday with likely profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.37 lower. Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 75¢ lower across a broad range with most of the pressure in the front three contracts.    

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ higher. Soybean futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with the most support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 110 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 22 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 247 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 60¢ to 71¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Currently-suspended cattle imports to the U.S. from Mexico — due to New World Screwworm — helped fuel feeder steer price expectations in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook, compared to the previous month.

USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased the forecast feeder steer price by $5/cwt. in the fourth quarter of this year to $259. The annual average 2024 price increased $1.25 to $252.09. Those prices are basis 750-800 lb. Medium and Large No. 1 steers selling at Oklahoma City.

ERS increased next year’s projected feeder steer price by $13-$17 in the first three quarters to $265 in the first quarter, $270 in the second and $275 in the third. The projected annual average price for 2025 increased $14.50 to $272.50.

ERS analysts emphasize the projections are based on the border closure remaining in place, as there is no current date established for trade resumption.

As reported in Cattle Current last week, ERS elevated the month-to-month forecast fed steer price for 2025 in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

ERS left the first-quarter price unchanged at $188 but increased price projections by $2 in the second quarter to $189 and by $6 in the third quarter to $192 with an annual average price $3 higher at $191.