WLI

Cattle futures closed mostly a touch lower Tuesday but off of session lows as traders await this week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 33¢ lower, except for an average of 56¢ higher in the front two contracts.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 36¢ lower, except for 25¢ higher in spot Mar. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on very light demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $210/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $212-$215 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $8.09 higher Tuesday afternoon at $335.19/cwt. Select was 47¢ higher at $324.05.

Grain and Soybean futures were lower Tuesday. Apparently, pressure included increased trader wariness regarding the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) recent proposal to impose new, steep levies on Chinese-built and operated ocean carries arriving at U.S. ports, which would likely disrupt trade and decrease domestic price competitiveness in the global market.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 3¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower. Soybean futures were fractionally higher to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 4 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 83 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 5¢ to 7¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Challenges linger in the rural economy, based on the latest Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI). It rose 3.1 points month to month in March but remained below growth neutral for 18th time in the past 19 months.

The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. It’s based on a monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

“The economic outlook for 2025 farm income remains weak according to bank CEOs. However, farm commodity prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability among a high share of producers,” says Ernie Goss, the Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.

Approximately 62.9% of bankers expect 2025 farm income to be lower than last year’s weak level. Only 3.7% of bank CEOs predict 2025 farm income to expand from 2024’s level.

“Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence lower,” Goss says.

Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed Monday, following early-session strength supported by last week’s strong cash fed cattle prices and Friday’s friendly Cattle on Feed report.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of 42¢ lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 23¢ lower, except for an average of 16¢ higher in the front two contracts.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $210/cwt. in the Southern Plains $212-$215 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $335.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $7.46 higher at $212.76. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $10.18 higher at $335.15.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.65 higher Monday afternoon at $327.10/cwt. Select was $3.96 higher at $313.58.

Turning to the grain complex, futures continued their mixed choppiness Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally mixed. Kansas City Wheat futures were 11¢ lower. Soybean futures were 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, apparently buoyed by White House rhetoric suggesting a potentially softer tariff stance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 597 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 100 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 404 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to 90¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cattle export volume from Mexico to the U.S. is slowly recovering, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock specialist at Oklahoma State University. Shipments resumed in early-February following closure of the U.S. border since late November, due to New World Screwworm.

Peel provides perspective to trade volume over time and ongoing drought challenges facing Mexican cow-calf producers, in his weekly market comments.

“November and December typically account for over 22% of annual Mexican cattle shipments to the U.S., along with another 7.2% in January, but much of that was preempted by the border closure,” Peel says. “The drought and feed scarcity have made it very difficult and expensive to hold cattle waiting for access to the U.S. market. Some cattle have been rerouted into domestic Mexican markets.”

Peel explains 37.7% Mexican cattle imports into the U.S. last year were spayed heifers, compared to an average of 15.7% over the previous two decades. Since the border reopened, he says spayed heifers represent 42.2% of Mexican imports to the U.S., likely indicating further drought-forced liquidation of herds in northern Mexico.

Further, Peel points the requirement that heifers must be exported within 180 days after spaying.

“Total Mexican cattle exports to the U.S. are expected to be significantly lower year over year in 2025 due to the slow start to exports in the first quarter of the year, fewer heifers in the export mix, and the likelihood that total cattle numbers are down, meaning that there are simply less Mexican cattle available for export,” Peel says.

Listen to more of Peel’s insights here.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on very good demand in all major cattle feeding regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $7-$8 higher in the Southern Plains at $210/cwt. and $6-$9 higher in the North at $212-$215. Dressed delivered prices were $10 higher at $335.

Cattle futures closed lower Friday after early strength on likely week-end profit taking and positioning.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.58 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 lower ($1.87 lower at the front to $5.05 lower at the back).

Cattle futures should find some early-week support tied to the friendly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.15 lower Friday afternoon at $325.91/cwt. Select was 28¢ higher at $309.64.

Week to week on Friday, Choice was $7.64 higher and Select was $3.32 higher. Choice was up $11 over the past two weeks.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 560,000 head was 24,000 head less than the prior week and 33,000 head less than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date total cattle slaughter of 6.7 million head was 452,000 head less (-6.3%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 5.8 billion pounds was 143.3 million pounds less (-2.4%).

Turning to the grain complex, futures were mixed again Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday, amid volatile trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 32 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 92 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 9¢ to 21¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Markets will likely view USDA’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as friendly with fewer placements than expected.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, February placements of 1.6 million head were 336,000 head fewer (-17.7%) than the same month last year, which was 3.3% less than expectations ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 37% went on feed weighing less than 699 lbs., 52% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 11% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

February marketings of 1.6 million head were 160,000 head fewer than the prior year (-8.9%), which was near pre-report estimates, but a touch less.

The March 1 feedlot inventory of 11.6 million head was 261,000 head fewer than a year earlier (-2.2%), which was also a touch softer than pre-report expectations.

Cattle futures extended gains Thursday, supported by recently higher wholesale beef values and the increasing likelihood of higher cash fed cattle prices for the week. Through mid-morning Friday, Cattle futures were lower ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report.

On Thursday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.36 higher. Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 higher.

There was no AMS report for negotiated cash fed cattle prices Thursday afternoon. Through mid-morning Friday, there were reports of significantly higher week-to-week bids.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Grain and Soybean futures were mixed Thursday.

Corn futures closed 2¢ to 7¢ higher through old-crop contracts and then mostly fractionally mixed. Front months were supported by strong weekly export demand.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 5¢ to 8¢ lower through away May and then fractionally lower to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 4¢ higher through near Sep and then fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed but lower Thursday, with continued pressure from tariff wonderment and economic recession fears.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 11 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 59 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 97¢ to $1.16 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were higher Wednesday, supported by surging wholesale beef values, firmer outside markets and possibly an eye toward Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report.

Pre-report estimates are for February feedlot placements to be about 14% less year over year, February marketing to be down about 8% and the March 1 cattle on feed inventory to be down 2%.

Toward the close, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.84 higher.  

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $202-$203/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $206 in the North. Dressed delivered prices were $325.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.29 higher Wednesday afternoon at $329.61/cwt. Select was 55¢ lower at $308.68.

Grain and Soybean futures softened Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts,

Corn futures were mostly 2¢ lower to 3¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures 8¢ to 11¢ lower. Soybean futures 4¢ to 5¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, helped along by the Fed saying a couple more interest rate cuts are still on the table for this year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 383 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 60 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 246 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 21¢ to 31¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Despite the anticipated year-over-year decline in cattle slaughter this year, heavier carcass weights will help push beef production close to last year’s level, according to analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service, in the March Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

“In the first eight weeks of 2025, weekly carcass weights have averaged 40 pounds more than the same period last year,” ERS analysts say. They explain the increase is driven by heavier steer and heifer carcass weights, as well as the proportion fed steer and heifers in the slaughter mix.

Although the number of cattle on feed for more than 150 days Feb. 1 was about 3% less year over year, based on the February Cattle on Feed report, ERS analysts expect market-ready fed cattle supplies will increase amid slower packer production and cattle spending more time on feed.

As for the percentage of steers and heifers in the slaughter mix, ERS analysts note an increase. The percentage has averaged about 79% over the last decade, but they say it rose to 81% through the first 10 weeks of this year; the first time the percentage has eclipsed 80% since 2007.