WLI

Cattle futures closed mainly higher Friday, boosted by higher cash fed cattle prices and despite USDA announcing a National Milk Testing Strategy aimed at surveillance of the nation’s milk supply and dairy herds for highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.04 higher. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ higher, except for an average of 20¢ lower in two contracts.

Week to week on Friday, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.84 lower (60¢ to $2.60 lower). Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.15 lower during the same period.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from light on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light demand in other regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1-$3 higher on a light test in the Texas Panhandle at $191/cwt., $1 higher in Kansas at $191, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $191-$192 and steady in the western Corn belt at $190.

Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $297, which was from $3 higher to $8 lower. Prices in Nebraska the previous week were $295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.20 higher Friday afternoon at $312.04/cwt. Select was 37¢ lower at $276.73.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 614,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 29.4 million head was 1.1 million head fewer (-3.6%). Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.9 billion pounds was 108.3 million pounds less (-0.4%).

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Friday.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher, supported by weekly export sales and perhaps some betting on favorable adjustments in next week’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 1¢ higher through Dec ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower. Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed on Friday with positive news including a positive jobs report.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November, leaving the unemployment rate little changed at 4.2%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 13¢, or 0.4%, to $35.61. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.0%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 123 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 159 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 70¢ to $1.10 lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports were higher year over year in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

October beef exports totaled 105,269 metric tons (mt) in October, up 1% from a year earlier. Value increased 3% to $860.4 million. For January through October, beef export value was 4% above last year at $8.68 billion, despite a 2% decline in volume (1.066 million mt).

“It’s encouraging to see an uptick in demand for U.S. beef in China and Korea, where the economic headwinds have been formidable this year,” says USMEF President and CEO Dan Halstrom. “Our Western Hemisphere markets have been outstanding, and exports have also expanded to the ASEAN region. So, if U.S. beef can regain momentum in these larger Asian destinations, this bodes well for 2025.”

Beef exports to China/Hong Kong totaled 20,493 mt in October, up 16% from a year ago and the largest since June 2023. Export value climbed 17% to $190.6 million, also the highest since June 2023.

October beef exports to Korea — the leading value destination for U.S. beef — were the largest since April at 19,638 mt, up 5% from a year ago, while value climbed 10% to $191.7 million – the highest since March.

Beef export value equated to $380.98 per head of fed slaughter in October, down 2% from a year ago. The January-October average was $411.03, up 4%.

U.S. pork exports in October were 3% more year over year at 252,411 mt.  Value also increased 3% to $710.4 million.

Cattle futures weakened further Thursday sans weekly cash fed cattle direction and sluggish Choice wholesale beef values.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.88 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.66 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North through Thursday afternoon with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 49¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $307.84/cwt. Select was 60¢ lower at $277.10.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Thursday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher, supported by weekly export sales that were 63% more than the previous week and 4% more than the prior-four-week average. Kansas City Wheat futures were 10¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures were 7¢ to 10¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with apparent investor skittishness ahead of Friday’s national jobs report.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 248 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 34 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 8¢ to 12¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Given cow-calf profitability, hay production, hay prices and the current rates of beef cow and heifer slaughter, James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas expects to see a 1% decline in beef cow inventories this year.

In terms of profitability, Mitchell shares estimated cow-calf returns over cash costs provided by the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC).

“According to LMIC estimates, returns are projected at $622 per cow in 2024, making it the most profitable year on a nominal basis … surpassing the $534 per cow recorded in 2014,” Mitchell explains in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “However, comparisons are more meaningful when adjusted for inflation. When 2014 returns are converted to 2024 dollars, they equal $707 per cow, exceeding 2024 returns by $86 per cow.”

As for slaughter rates, beef cow slaughter — a measure of cow culling — is 18% less year over year, while heifer slaughter — a measure of heifer retention is 1.5% less, according to Mitchell.

“An important consideration is the slaughter rate relative to available supplies, rather than absolute cow and heifer slaughter numbers,” Mitchell says. “When viewed in this context, it becomes evident that the current slaughter rate has not yet reached a level signaling an increase in beef cow inventories. For example, in 2023 we slaughtered 12% of the beef cows that were available to slaughter as of January 1 (implied cull rate). In 2024, it looks like we will slaughter 10% of available beef cows. While this is an improvement, it still is not a low enough cull rate to signal an increase in beef cow numbers.”

Cattle futures tracked lower Wednesday as traders await the week’s cash fed cattle direction and Choice wholesale beef values struggle.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.46 lower.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 91¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the North to a standstill in the Southern Plains through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.50 lower Wednesday afternoon at $308.33/cwt. Select was $2.37 higher at $277.70.

Grain and Soybean futures continued mixed again Wednesday with overall pressure including the strength of the U.S. dollar and uncertainty related to the coming shift in presidential administrations.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally higher to 3¢ higher. Soybean futures were 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, fueled by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 308 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 254 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.03 to $1.19 lower through the front six contracts.

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Fewer available cattle and increased wheat pasture prospects are key drivers of recent calf price increases, according to David Anderson, Extension livestock economist with Texas A&M University,

“Lighter-weight, 400-500 pound calf prices have jumped about $30/cwt. in the Southern Plains over the last month,” Anderson explains in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Heavier 500-600 pound steers are up around $20 per cwt and 700-800 pound feeders are up about $80 per cwt over the same period in the Southern Plains. Seasonal lows in the calf market are in the rearview mirror for 2024. Calf prices do tend to increase, seasonally, in the late Fall.”

Anderson says, it’s too soon to say if the restriction on Mexican cattle imports is affecting cash prices on this side of the border.

“Price impacts will depend on how long import delays last,” Anderson says.

Cattle futures found some footing Tuesday, led by Feeder Cattle as the CME Feeder Cattle Index continued to rise — up about $5 in the last two days.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.48 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of 73¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $190/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190-$192 in Nebraska and $185-$190 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $290 in Nebraska and $294-$305 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.68 lower Tuesday afternoon at $309.33/cwt. Select was $1.67 lower at $275.33.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed again Tuesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 1¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 1¢ to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices mainly paddled water at and near record levels Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 76 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 76 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.50 to $1.88 higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment increased month to month in November, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index climbed 30 points to a reading of 145, the highest level since May of 2021. The Future Expectations Index jumped 37 points to 161, while the Current Conditions Index increased 18 points to 113.

Increased barometer readings reflect growing optimism about a more favorable regulatory and tax environment for agriculture following the U.S. election, according to barometer analysts.

The percentage of producers expecting their operation’s financial performance to improve over the next year climbed to 33%, up from 19% in October. Optimism about the U.S. agricultural sector also surged, with 34% of producers anticipating good times financially in the next 12 months, more than double October’s 15%.

To gain insight into how farmers’ sentiment might align with potential policy shifts following a change in presidential administrations, barometer surveys included several policy-related questions before and after the 2020 and 2024 elections.

In the wake of the 2024 election, farmers’ views on environmental regulations experienced a sharp reversal. In October, 41% of respondents anticipated a more restrictive regulatory environment over the next five years, while only 10% expected less restrictive regulations. However, the November survey saw a dramatic shift, with just 9% of surveyed farmers expecting stricter regulations and 55% predicting a more favorable, less restrictive regulatory landscape.

Similarly, 55% of respondents expected income tax rates to remain unchanged, compared to just 25% in 2020. Likewise, 57% of respondents in the November survey anticipated estate tax rates to stay the same over the next five years, a large increase from 28% in November 2020.

“While optimism is up, farmers are also expressing concerns about the potential risks to agricultural trade, with many fearing that a trade war could significantly impact U.S. exports,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Cattle futures softened Monday, led by Feeder Cattle, perhaps pressured by profit taking.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $2.31 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of 40¢ lower, except for an average of 20¢ higher in the back two contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $190/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Kansas at $190, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190-$192 and $2-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $185-$190. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in Nebraska at $290 and $4-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $294-$305.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.49 higher Monday afternoon at $313.01/cwt. Select was $2.70 higher at $277.00.

Grain and Soybean futures closed mixed Monday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were fractionally lower to 2¢ higher. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday with the lion’s share of support centered on tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 128 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 185 points.

Through midafternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 15¢ to 18¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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With live cattle imports from Mexico to the United States expected to be suspended for at least three weeks — due to New World Screwworm — Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says more Mexican imports are unlikely this year.

“The lack of Mexican cattle imports for the remainder of the year will have some immediate impact reducing an already tight feeder supply. However, some of the feedlot impact is not immediate because a portion of the imported Mexican cattle are lightweight and typically go through stocker/backgrounding programs before feedlot placement,” Peel explains in his weekly market comments. “In the January – September period this year about 24% of the imported cattle were less than 200 kilograms (441 pounds). It’s important to remember that most of the cattle not imported for the remainder of the year will enter the U.S. eventually, just with a delay.”

Barring a prolonged border closure or permanent changes to import regulations, Peel says a change in timing with a short-term tightening of supply will be the primary impact on the domestic feeder cattle market.

For perspective, Peel says imports of cattle from Mexico to the U.S. were 21.3% more year over year through the first nine months of 2024, suggesting total imports for the year of about 1.5 million head. He adds that Mexican cattle imports represent 3.3% of the total U.S. calf crop on average.