WLI

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday, with likely profit taking, technical resistance and perhaps reaction to chatter about when cattle imports from Mexico might resume.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was active on good demand in Nebraska through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service, with FOB live prices unevenly steady at $202-$205/cwt. and dressed delivered prices $2 higher at $322.

Trade was light to moderate on moderate to good demand in the western Corn Belt with FOB live prices steady to $3 higher at $203-$205. Dressed delivered prices last week were $320.

In the Southern Plains, trade was light on light demand with too few transactions to trend. For the week, dressed delivered prices are $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $201 and steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 73¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $333.41/cwt. Select was $1.34 higher at $319.38.

Cattle futures lost ground Thursday, with likely profit taking, technical resistance and perhaps reaction to chatter about when cattle imports from Mexico might resume.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.95 lower. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.36 lower.

Corn and Soybean futures were lower Thursday with likely producer selling and profit taking.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were 9¢ lower. Soybean futures were 19¢ to 22¢ lower.   

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Thursday with pressure from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 68 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 12 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 172 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 79¢ to $1.36 lower.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased forecast feeder steer prices for most of this year, in the January Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.

Compared to the previous month, ERS projected the average feeder steer price $3 higher in the first quarter at $268/cwt. and $2 in the second quarter at $272. The third-quarter projection was unchanged at $275. The forecast annual average price increased $1.25 to $273.25. Prices are basis Medium and Large #1 steers weighing 750-800 lbs. and selling at Oklahoma City.

As in the previous report, price projections assume the ongoing suspension of cattle imports from Mexico, since no date has been established for resumed trade.

ERS analysts explain, cattle have not been imported from Mexico since Nov. 22, which has limited feeder cattle typically available to feedlots in the Southern Plains. They say These feedlots are likely drawing down on supplies from other U.S. areas, boosting feeder calf prices.

As mentioned in Cattle Current last week, the ERS increased expected five-area direct average fed steer prices in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased $6 in the first quarter to $194/cwt., $5 in the second quarter to $194, $4 in the third quarter to $196, and by $5 for an annual average price of $196. Increase optimism stemmed from recent prices and continued strong beef demand.

“Wholesale beef prices finished 2024 on a strong note, carrying record beef prices into 2025,” ERS analysts say, explaining, “The strength of this wholesale beef price trend likely helped support record slaughter cattle prices through the holiday season.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on light demand in the Texas Panhandle through Wednesday afternoon with FOB live prices $1 higher at $201/cwt. in a light test, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $201 on moderate trade and demand.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on very light demand.

Last week, FOB live prices were $203 in Nebraska and $200-$205 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $320.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.16 higher Wednesday afternoon at $334.14/cwt. Select was 67¢ lower at $318.04.

Cattle futures gained Wednesday with help from more optimistic outside markets and the prospects of at least steady cash fed cattle trade.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.13 higher. Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.24 higher.

Corn and Soybean futures were mixed Wednesday.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were 2¢ to 3¢ lower. Soybean futures were 4¢ to 8¢ lower.  

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday with another inflation reading that came in slightly less than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis in December, after rising 0.3% in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The all items index increased 2.9% over the last 12 months before seasonal adjustment.

However, the index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2% in December, after increasing 0.3% in each of the previous four months.

A day earlier, the Producer Price Index for final demand — a measure of wholesale price inflation — was also lower than expected.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 703 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 107 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 466 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were $1.57 to $3.01 higher through the front six contracts, supported by declining week-to-week domestic supplies and increased perceived supply risk.

Cattle futures consolidated Tuesday awaiting this week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures were an average of 52¢ higher across a broad range. Live Cattle futures were an average of 49¢ lower across a broad range.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade mostly inactive on very light demand in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were 200/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $200-$201 in Kansas, $203 in Nebraska and $200-$203 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $320.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 37¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $332.98/cwt. Select was $1.14 higher at $318.71.

Corn and Soybean futures softened Tuesday with likely profit taking in the wake of the recent surge higher.

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures were mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower, except for 3¢ higher in expiring Jan.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday. Positive economic news included a tamer inflation reading than expected for wholesale prices. The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.2% in December, seasonally adjusted, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 221 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 43 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 10¢ higher to 82¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures were lower Monday on likely profit taking and positioning following last week’s charge higher.

Toward the close, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.42 lower. Live Cattle futures closed an average of 96¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade mostly inactive on very light demand in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 higher in the Texas Panhandle at 200/cwt., $4 higher in Kansas at $200-$201, $3 higher in Nebraska at $203 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200-$203. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $320.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $3.65 higher at $202.58/cwt. The weighted five-area average dressed delivered steer price was $5.29 higher at $320.25.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 51¢ higher Monday afternoon at $333.35/cwt. Select was $3.43 higher at $317.57.

Corn and Soybean futures continued higher Monday with follow-through support from Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, dragging Wheat along.  

Toward the close and through Sep ’25 contracts, Corn futures closed 5¢ to 7¢ higher. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 9¢ to 11¢ higher. Soybean futures closed 20¢ to 30¢ higher

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday, as investors awaited inflation reading this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 358 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 9 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 75 points.

Through mid-afternoon, West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 30¢ lower to $2.21 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA provides some annual perspective with year-over-year five-area direct weighted average negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Compared to 2023, the five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed steer price was $11.11 higher at $187.25/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $17.91 more at $295.86.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live fed heifer price was $11.31 higher at $186.38/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered fed heifer price was $18.24 more at $295.69.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was light on moderate demand in the Southern Plains and Nebraska through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Trade in the western Corn Belt was limited on light demand.

For the week, FOB live prices were $4 higher in the Southern Plains at 200-201/cwt., $3 higher in Nebraska at $203 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $200-$203. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher at $320.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.06 higher Friday afternoon at $332.84/cwt. Select was $5.79 higher at $314.14.

Week to week on Friday, Choice was $7.60 higher and Select was $17.42 higher.

Estimated beef production so far this year illustrates the slower year-over-year production pace, down 161.7 million pounds (-17.6%) compared to the same time last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 870,000 head was 217,000 head fewer (-20%).

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, buoyed by higher cash fed cattle prices and stronger wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 higher (75¢ higher at the back to $3.12 higher at the front). Week to week, they were an average of $6.07 higher ($5.22 to $7.52 higher). 

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 86¢ higher Friday (27¢ to $1.37 higher). Week to week, they were an average of $3.39 higher ($2.37 higher at the back to $4.27 higher in spot Feb).

Turning to the grain complex, Corn and Soybean futures bounced higher with help from cuts to yield and. Ending stocks in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed 14¢ to 15¢ higher in old-crop contracts and then mostly 1¢ to 3¢ higher. Week to week, they were an average of 20’6¢ higher through old-crop contracts.

Soybean futures closed 16¢ to 26¢ higher through Jan ’26 and then 8¢ to 13¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Friday, pressured by bullish employment numbers, which cast a pall over potential interest rate cuts.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 256,000 in December, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than expected. The unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1%.

Average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls rose by 10¢ (0.3%) in December. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.9%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 696 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 91 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 317 points.

Crude oil futures surged on chatter about potential U.S. sanctions aimed at Russian oil carriers.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME closed $1.66 to $2.65 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased expected five-area direct average fed steer prices in the January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates. Compared to the previous month, forecast prices increased $6 in the first quarter to $194/cwt., $5 in the second quarter to $194, $4 in the third quarter to $196, and by $5 for an annual average price of $196. Increased optimism stemmed from recent prices and continued strong beef demand.

Projected beef production this year of 25.8 billion pounds would be 1.2 billion pounds less (-4.4%) than last year’s estimated production.