Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures closed higher Tuesday, supported by steady to stronger wholesale beef values.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.01 higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.62 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $192/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $186/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $190 in Nebraska and $190 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $298 in Nebraska and mostly $300 in the western Corn Belt with a few up to $306.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 32¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $313.02/cwt. Select was $1.52 higher at $300.87/cwt.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ’25 on planting pressure. Soybean futures were 10¢ to 12¢ lower through Jly ’25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Tuesday but to the upside.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 66 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 13 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.08 lower through the front six contracts.

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Heading into the monthly Cattle on Feed report, analysts expect, on average, April feedlot placements to be about 5% less year over year, April marketings to be about 10% more and the May 1 on-feed number to be approximately 1% less.

“There is a clear understanding of the coming long-term reductions in numbers and beef supplies. This week’s Cattle on Feed report will be interesting in how placements confirm this perspective,” says Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University, in the latest issue of In the Cattle Markets. “Has the persistent dry weather and poor pasture led to more placements and less heifer holding, thereby delaying the shortfalls but exacerbating their future magnitude?”

While many cast their gaze on placements, marketings may be more telling this time. Even though there were a couple of extra days of production in April compared to last year, packers have been dialing back production to boost wholesale beef values.

Based on federally inspected (FI) fed cattle slaughter data, Koontz does not expect to see a strong April marketing number in this week’s Cattle on Feed report.

“Last month’s Cattle on Feed revealed a large number of cattle on-feed over 150 days, and there will be some reduction but not strong,” Koontz believes. “And FI steer and heifer carcass weights continue to impress. Weights have essentially held steady the last eight to nine weeks. Steers hover above 920 pounds and heifer weights are about 850 pounds. This is another 40 pounds of beef per animal given the normal seasonal decline in weights that should be observed. This is a substantial increase in beef tonnage.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday, as traders appeared to take stock after last week’s strong gains.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 17¢ higher, from 30¢ lower in near Aug.

Feeder Cattle were an average of 57¢ lower, except for 10¢ higher in the back contract. Pressure included stronger Corn futures prices.

Negotiated cash fed trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in the Southern Plains at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300 and mostly $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $300 with some up to $306.

The weighted weekly average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $2.60 higher at $188.54. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.11 higher at $299.39.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 75¢ lower Monday afternoon at $312.70/cwt. Select was $1.95 higher at $299.35/cwt.

Kansas City Wheat futures rallied Monday, up 24¢ to 34¢ through Dec ’25 heading into the close on concerns about crop damage in the Ukraine and Russia, and leading Corn. Corn futures were 6¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ‘25. Soybean futures were 9¢ to 18¢ higher through Aug ’25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed Mixed Monday with tech stocks leading the positive side.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 196 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 4 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 108 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 18¢ to 42¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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“Conditions at the beginning of the 2024 forage growing season suggest that producers may be able to plan grazing and hay production with less restriction compared to recent years,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “However, in many cases, pastures and ranges still need time to recover from extended drought conditions.” He points out there is currently less drought in the U.S. than at any time in the past four years.

Nationally, 49% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Good (40%) or Excellent (9%) the week ending May 19, according to the latest weekly Crop Progress report. That was 12% more than a year earlier. On the other end of the scale, 20% of the nation’s pasture and range was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (7%), which was 9% less than a year earlier. The only key cattle states with 35% or more rated as Poor or Very Poor were New Mexico (59%) and Texas (38%).

“There is reason to be cautiously optimistic for better cattle production conditions in 2024,” Peel says. “However, the forecasted redevelopment of La Niña conditions this summer is worrisome. The seasonal forecast from the Climate Prediction Center is for above average temperatures and below average precipitation for the next three months in much of major beef cattle country. Proceed with caution.” 

As for row crops, corn planting made up some ground last week but continued to lag with 70% in the ground which was 6% less than the same time last year and 1% less than the five-year average. 40% was emerged versus 46% a year earlier and 39% for average.

Similarly, soybean planting was 9% less than a year earlier at 52% but was 3% ahead of the average. 26% of soybeans were emerged, compared to 31% a year earlier and 21% for average.

As for winter wheat, 69% was headed, compared to 58% a year earlier and 57% for average. 49% was rated as Good (42%) or Excellent (7%), compared to 31% a year earlier. 18% was rated as Poor (13%) or Very Poor (5%) compared to 40% a year earlier.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to active on good demand elsewhere, through Friday afternoon according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Kansas at $186/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $190 and $3-$5 higher in the western Corn Belt $190 with a few up to $191. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $298-$300. Last week, dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were mostly $295.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales in the Texas Panhandle at $186, where prices the previous week were $184.

Fed cattle prices were supported by slower packer production helping to boost wholesale beef prices. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.30 higher Friday afternoon at $313.45/cwt., the highest level since March. Select was 89¢ higher at $297.40/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was $18.88 higher and Select was $13.23 higher.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 598,000 head was 24,000 head fewer than the previous week and 42,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 11.9 million head was 570,000 head fewer than the (-4.5%) than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 10.1 billion pounds was 220.6 million pounds less (-2.1%).

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, amid stronger boxed beef values and higher cash fed cattle prices.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.21 higher, from 67¢ higher at the back to $2.02 higher at the front. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of $3.92 higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.03 higher. They were an average of $7.87 higher week to week on Friday.

Turning to row crops, Corn futures closed 3¢ to 5¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures closed an average of 14’9¢ lower through the front six contracts.

On Friday, KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower through May ’25 and then 4¢ to 6¢ lower. Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mostly higher Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 12 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 82¢ to 85¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Increased U.S. beef imports — mostly lean trim for grinding — continue enabling added value to decreasing domestic production.

Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee provides illustration in his weekly market comments.

“The retail price of a chuck roast in April was $7.52 per pound, compared to $5.28 per pound for ground chuck. The $2.24 per pound difference in chuck roast and ground chuck demonstrates the importance of lean beef imports to support ground beef demand domestically, because a whole muscle cut clearly has a higher value as is compared to placing it in the grind mix. The same can be said for a round roast which had an average retail value of $6.86 per pound,” Griffith explains. “It is extremely important to note these price differences, because folks in the cattle industry are attempting to market cattle and beef products to their highest value and the ability to import lean grinding beef allows packers to market items such as the chuck and round as roasts instead of placing them in the grind mix.”

First-quarter U.S. beef imports of 1.2 billion pounds were 25% more year over year and 44% more than the five-year average, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. U.S. beef imports this year are forecast at 4.2 billion pounds. That would be a 12% increase year over year and the first time beef imports exceed 4 billion pounds, according to ERS.

“The U.S. beef trade balance is expected to show a widening deficit (imports higher than exports) in 2024 and 2025,” say ERS analysts. “With domestic beef production expected to fall about 6% in 2025, annual exports are forecast at 2.5 billion pounds, representing an 11% decrease year over year … The combination of fewer supplies available to export, higher beef prices in the United States, and increased competition from Oceania will continue to create challenges for the expansion of U.S. beef exports.”

Cattle futures extended further Thursday, buoyed by another day of higher wholesale beef prices, bullish outside markets and a positive reading of export demand.

Net U.S. beef export sales for 2024 the week ending May 9 of 15,100 metric tons were 23% more than the previous week, but 11% less than the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, China, Taiwan, Mexico and South Korea.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.38 higher Thursday afternoon at $310.15/cwt. Select was $2.20 higher at $296.51/cwt.

Heading into the close and before settlement…

Live Cattle futures were an average of 64¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of $1.40 higher, receiving added support from softer Corn futures.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $186-$190/cwt. and a few dressed delivered sales at $298-$300.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Grain futures softened again Thursday.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 1¢ lower through Sep ’25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ‘25.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 38 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 11 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 44 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 72¢ to 76¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) increased this year’s expected annual average feeder steer price (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) by $1, compared to the previous month’s forecast, to $255.46/cwt., in the May Livestock Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Prices increased in the second quarter by $5 to $255 and by $2 in the third quarter to $263. The average fourth-quarter price was reduced $3 to $264. Price increases in the second and third quarters assume adequate forage supplies and declines in forecast corn season average prices. The 2025 feeder average steer price forecast is $259.00.

On the other side of the fence, as reported in Cattle Current Monday, ERS reduced the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.

Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.

Cattle futures extended gains, supported by recently resurgent wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of 26¢ higher. Feeder Cattle were an average of 47¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.38 higher Wednesday afternoon at $306.77/cwt. Select was 49¢ higher at $294.31/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Turning to row crops, Grain futures were lower again on likely profit taking and producer selling.

Corn futures were 3¢ to 4¢ lower through Sep ’25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 7¢ lower through May ‘25. Soybean were mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower through May ‘25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices jumped higher Wednesday on encouraging inflation news.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers increased 0.3% in April on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4% in March, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 349 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 61 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 231 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 48¢ to 84¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Domestic U.S. beef demand continued to be extraordinarily resilient in the face of continued high retail prices.

“The USDA all-fresh beef retail price was at $7.89 per pound in March. A new all-time high for that month,” according to Rabobank analysts, in their April North American agribusiness review.  “The stronger price trend pushed first-quarter 2024 consumer beef demand to its second-highest level in the last 30 years.”

The Choice beef retail price in March was $8.12 per pound, which was 48 cents higher (+6.3%) year over year. During the same period, the composite broiler retail price was about 2 cents higher at $2.43 (+0.1%) and retail pork value was up about 4 cents (+0.1%) at $4.79.

More specifically, ground beef prices were 6.1% higher year over year at $5.13 per pound. Choice, boneless chuck roast was 9.4% higher at $6.73 and the Choice sirloin steak price was up 12.2% at $11.54.

Conversely, boneless chicken breast was 5.1% less at about $4.11 per pound. Boneless ham (not canned) was 1.8% less at $5.57 and bacon was fractionally lower at $6.61. Pork chop prices (all) were 2.2% higher at about $4.26.

Cattle futures rallied Tuesday, supported by slower packer production which is helping lift wholesale beef prices.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $2.29 higher and Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $4.20 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $183-$185 in Kansas, $186-$187 in Nebraska and mostly $187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $295-$296 in Nebraska and mostly $295 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.44 higher Tuesday afternoon at $304.39/cwt. Select was $6.64 higher at $293.82/cwt.

Turning to row crops, heading into the close, front-month Grain futures were softer on likely profit taking and producer selling.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday as investors awaited key inflation reports this week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 126 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 25 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 122 points.

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The percentage of heifers in the fed cattle mix must drop below the long-run average of just over 37% — likely 35-36% — in order for the next herd expansion to begin, says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“There is no indication that is happening yet,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. He explains heifer slaughter, as a percentage of fed cattle slaughter was 40% last year, as high as it has ever been. Although fractionally lower year over year, it was 40.5% in the first quarter this year.

“In most cases, the total increase in the cow herd from trough to peak is 2.2 to 2.9 million head, an increase of 5.8% to 9.4%,” Peel explains, reflecting on cattle cycles since 1975. “The corresponding increase in replacement heifers ranged from 1.1 to just over 1.2 million head in three of the four cycles. The most recent cycle, from 2014-2019, was different in that the increase in beef replacement heifers started prior to herd expansion and ended prior to the peak in herd inventory. This is likely an indication that there was pent up desire to expand that was delayed due to drought in 2011-2013.”

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Monday as traders appeared to wait for further cash direction.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were narrowly mixed, from an average of 46¢ lower to an average of 22¢ higher.

Feeder Cattle closed were an average of 37¢ higher, except for 67¢ lower in the back contract.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., unevenly steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183-$185, steady in Nebraska at $186-187 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at mostly $187. Dressed delivered prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $295-$296 and mainly steady in the western Corn Belt at mostly $295.

The five-area weighted average direct FOB live steer price last week was 20¢ higher at$185.94. The weighted average dressed delivered steer prices was 63¢ higher at $295.28.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.38 higher Monday afternoon at $298.95/cwt. Select was $3.01 higher at $287.18/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Monday, with follow-through support from Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and planting delays.

Corn futures were mostly fractionally higher to 5¢ higher through Jly ’25.

Kansas City Wheat futures 16¢ to 25¢ higher through Jly ‘25.

Soybean were mostly 4¢ to 8¢ higher through 2025. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 81 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 1 point lower. The NASDAQ was up 47 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.01 lower through the front six contracts.

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Hay stocks on farms May 1 of 21 million tons were 6.7 million tons more than the previous year (+47%), according to the latest USDA Crop Production report.

“To be fair, hay stocks on May 1, 2023, were as low as they had been since 2013. But a year-over-year increase of this magnitude is noteworthy and confirms that hay supply has continued to increase after a very challenging year in 2022,” says Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

Burdine explains the widespread drought in 2022 tightened hay supplies across most of the nation.

“Producers responded by harvesting more hay acres in 2023, resulting in a 6.3% increase in all hay production,” Burdine says. He adds hay production increased as beef cow numbers decreased, which impacted total hay needs.

Regionally, Burdine notes hay stocks were significantly higher year-over-year in the Southern Plains, fairly static in the Southeast and significantly lower in the upper Midwest.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on very light demand in the Texas Panhandle to moderate on moderate demand elsewhere through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady in the Texas Panhandle at $184/cwt., unevenly steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $183-$185, steady in Nebraska at $186-187 and steady to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $187. Dressed delivered prices were $1 higher in Nebraska at $295-$296 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $295.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 622,000 head was the same as a week earlier but 22,000 head less than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 11.4 million head was 527,000 head less (-4.4%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 9.6 billion pounds was 208.8 million pounds less (-2.1%) less than a year earlier.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 82¢ lower Friday afternoon at $294.57/cwt. Select was $1.59 lower at $284.17/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 37¢ higher but Select was $3.48 lower.

Cattle futures were mixed Friday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 83¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 11¢ lower to an average of 21¢ higher with the front months pressured by Corn futures. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $3.19 lower week to week on Friday.Grain and Soybean futures closed higher Friday, supported by the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below), which were less bearish than expected.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 12¢ to 21¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 9¢ to 13¢ higher through May ’25, and then mostly 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 10¢ higher through Sep ’24, and then mostly 3¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 125 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 5 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 78¢ to $1.01 lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) lowered the forecast average five-area direct fed steer price for this year, in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates(WASDE). Based on recent data and an anticipated faster pace of marketing in the second half of the year, prices were reduced $1 in the second quarter to $184/cwt., $2 in the third quarter to $182 and $3 in the fourth quarter to $187 for annual average price of $183.51, which was $1.49 less than the previous month’s estimate. Next year’s average price was forecast at $188 on expected tighter cattle and beef supplies.

Estimated beef production for this year of 26.6 billion pounds was 140 million pounds more than the previous month’s forecast. Forecast beef production next year of 25.1 billion pounds would be 1.5 billion pounds less (-5.5%) than this year.

Other WASDE highlights…

Corn

The 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook is for larger supplies, greater domestic use and exports, and higher ending stocks. The corn crop is projected at 14.9 billion bushels, down 3% from last year’s record as a decline in area is partially offset by an increase in yield. The yield projection of 181.0 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather, estimated using the 1988-2023 time period. Total corn supplies are forecast at 16.9 billion bushels, the highest since 2017/18.

The season-average farm price is projected at $4.40 per bushel, down 25¢ from 2023/24.

SoybeansThe 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans is for higher supplies, crush, exports, and ending stocks compared with 2023/24. The soybean crop is projected at 4.45 billion bushels, up 285 million on higher area and trend yield. With higher beginning stocks and production, soybean supplies are forecast at 4.8 billion bushels, up 8% from 2023/24.

The 2024/25 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $11.20 per bushel compared with $12.55 per bushel in 2023/24. The soybean meal price is forecast at $330 per short ton, down $50. The soybean oil price is forecast at 42¢ per pound, down 6¢ from 2023/24.

Wheat

The outlook for 2024/25 U.S. wheat is for larger supplies, modestly higher domestic use, increased exports, and higher stocks. Supplies are projected up 6% from 2023/24 on larger carry-in stocks and production. Projected 2024/25 ending stocks are 11% above last year at 766 million bushels, the highest level in four years.

The projected 2024/25 season-average farm price (SAFP) is $6.00 per bushel, down $1.10 from last year’s SAFP on higher stocks and lower projected U.S. corn prices.

Cattle futures were lower again Thursday, on weaker boxed beef cutout values and the lack of cash direction.

Live Cattle futures were an average of 63¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.19 lower.

Front month Cattle futures were trending mixed early in today’s session.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from at a standstill in the Texas Panhandle to mostly inactive on light demand elsewhere through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.28 lower Thursday afternoon at $295.39/cwt. Select was $2.49 lower at $285.76/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales the week ending May 2 of 12,300 metric tons for 2024 were down 45% from the previous week and 29% from the prior four-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan, South Korea, Mexico, Taiwan, and Canada.

Grain futures were lower Wednesday with likely producer selling and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower through Jly ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures mostly 3¢ higher. Soybean were 9¢ to 20¢ lower through Aug ‘25.  

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Major U.S. financial indices crawled higher Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 331 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 43 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 23¢ to 37¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Cull cow prices continue higher year over year — helped along by the ground beef market — will increase with herd expansion, says James Mitchell, Extension livestock economist at the University of Arkansas, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

“After several years of liquidation, the available supply of beef cows becomes tight, and cull cow prices increase,” Mitchell explains. “The next few years should support cull cow prices when the expansion phase of the next cattle cycle begins and fewer cull cows find their way to sale barns.”

So far this year, Mitchell says cull cow prices are averaging $1.03 per pound more (+53%) year over year. He adds that, based on research, cull cows represent 15-30% of gross revenue for producers.

“We can use several marketing and management strategies to improve the value of cull cows further,” Mitchell says. “Improving body condition score and cow health can mean more total pounds and better cull cow quality, which both impact the total value of cull cows. Price seasonality is another important consideration, with the lowest prices occurring in the fall when most producers sell cull cows.”

Cattle futures were lower Wednesday on wobbly boxed beef values and the lack of weekly cash fed cattle direction.

Heading into the close and before settlement, Live Cattle futures were an average of $1.18 lower. Feeder Cattle futures were an average of $1.60 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $184/cwt. in the Southern Plains $186-$187 in Nebraska and $185-$187 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $294-$295.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.82 lower Wednesday afternoon at $296.67/cwt. Select was $4.09 lower at $288.25/cwt.

Grain futures were lower Wednesday with likely producer selling and perhaps positioning ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Heading into the close, Corn futures were 5¢ to 8¢ lower through May ‘25. Kansas City Wheat futures were mostly 10¢ to 15¢ lower through Jly ’25. Soybean were mostly 12¢ to 21¢ lower through Mar ‘25. 

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Wednesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 172 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was down 29 points.

Heading into the close West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures on the CME were 31¢ to 89¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment declined sharply in April, based on the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. If fell 15 points from March to 99, the lowest since June 2022.

Worries about current financial situation on farms and ranches, and anticipated financial challenges in the coming year, drove the decline. The Current Condition Index dropped by 18 points to 83, while the Future Expectations Index fell by 14 points to 106.

“Farmers’ sentiment took a significant hit in April, reflecting broader concerns about financial performance and farmland values,” explains James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Farm Financial Performance Index declined to 76 in April, which was 7 points less than the previous month and 21 points less than last fall’s peak of 97. The decline reflects producers’ increasing concerns about the upcoming year’s financial outlook, according to Ag Barometer analysts, with fewer respondents expecting better or equal performance than last year.

The April Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from April 8-12, 2024.