Daily Market Highlights

Feeder Cattle futures continued higher Monday up an average of 87¢ with strong cash demand — 2¢ higher at the back to $1.67 higher at the front.

Live Cattle closed mixed on some likely profit taking. They were an average of 48¢ lower through the front four contracts to an average of 20¢ higher, except for unchanged in Oct.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3 to $4 higher in the Southern Plains at $182/cwt., $3.75 to $4 higher in Nebraska at $180 to $182.50 and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $180-$182. Dressed delivered prices were $5 to $9 higher in Nebraska at $285-$289 and $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $285.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $3.36 higher at $181.15. The weighted average dressed delivered price was $7.84 higher at $287.37.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 4¢ higher Monday afternoon at $294.08/cwt. Select was $1.94 higher at $287.02/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 7¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower through May ’25 and then unchanged.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Monday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 125 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 4 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 48 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 3¢ to 8¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Although inflation is moderating, Kevin Good, CattleFax vice president of market analysis says domestic consumer demand this year could be pressured by consumer debt and interest rates, cheaper alternative proteins, and economic uncertainty.

Speaking at the recent annual CattleFax Outlook Seminar, Good explained 2024 USDA All-Fresh Retail Beef prices are expected to average $7.90/pound. While higher beef prices may soften consumer purchasing habits, Good predicted the consumer preference for the quality, consistency and safety of U.S. beef will continue to support relatively strong demand. “Premiums for higher quality beef should remain as consumers have shown a willingness to pay for Choice grade or better beef,” he said.

From an international perspective, Good explained global protein demand has continued to increase and tighter global protein supplies should broadly support prices in 2024.

As reported in the last edition of Cattle Current, U.S. beef exports continue lower year over year, as domestic supplies decline and prices increase. CattleFax expects U.S. beef exports to decline 5% this year.

Cattle futures eased Friday as traders appeared to take a break from the week’s strong gains and awaiting cash fed cattle direction which ultimately proved positive.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.23 lower (15¢ to $2.45 lower) except for 30¢ higher in spot Mar.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 25¢ higher (5¢ to 85¢ higher) except for an average of 12¢ lower in three contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the Texas Panhandle to slow on light to moderate demand in the North through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $1.25 to $4.00 higher in Nebraska at $180/cwt. in a light test. Dressed delivered prices were $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $285, where there were a few live trades at $180, but too few to trend.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $178 in the Texas Panhandle, $178-$179 in Kansas and $177-$179 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska were $280.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 97¢ lower Friday afternoon at $294.04/cwt. Select was 96¢ higher at $285.08/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice was 96¢ higher and Select was $1.61 higher.

Total estimated cattle slaughter last week of 622,000 head was 15,000 head fewer than the previous week and 6,000 head fewer than the same week a year earlier. Beef packers continue to slow production in efforts to boost wholesale beef values. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 3.6 million head was 225,000 head fewer (-5.9%) than the same period last year. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 3 billion pounds was 133.8 million pounds less (-4.3%) than a year earlier.

Grain and soybean futures continued to be pressured by the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 9¢ to 11¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Friday, with the most support from tech stocks and further confirmation of easing inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 54 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 28 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 196 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 56¢ to 62¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports finished last year down 12% from the previous year’s record level at 1.29 million metric tons (mt), according to year-end data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef export value was 15% less year over year at just under $10 billion but was still the third highest annual value for beef exports.

“There is no question that 2023 was a challenging year for U.S. beef exports, especially in our largest Asian markets where economic conditions have weighed on foodservice demand,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “Of course, we were also challenged on the supply side, with less product available for export. Nevertheless, U.S. beef achieved excellent growth in Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, and we are encouraged by the December uptick in demand in South Korea and China. It was also great to see such strong per-head export value in December, topping $430.”

December exports of U.S. beef totaled 108,497 mt, down 4% year-over-year but the largest since August. Export value was also the highest since August and climbed 10% year-over-year to $860.8 million.

December beef export value equated to $431.50 per head of fed slaughter, up 11% from a year ago and the highest since April. The 2023 average was $397.04 per head, down 11% from the record level ($448.57) posted in 2022.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 84¢ higher Thursday (5¢ higher at the back to $1.77 higher toward the front), supported by friendly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below) and prospects of higher cash prices this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 53¢ higher through the front five contracts (2¢ to $1.30 higher) to an average of 27¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the western Corn Belt through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were a few early FOB live trades at $179/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was at a standstill.

Last week, FOB live prices were $178 in the Texas Panhandle, $178-$179 in Kansas,  $176-$178.75 in Nebraska and $177-$179 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $280.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 3¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $295.01/cwt. Select was $1.30 lower at $284.13/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 13¢ to 17¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Thursday, buoyed by more strong quarterly earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 49 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 2 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 37 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.82 to $2.36 higher through the front six contracts.

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USDA increased the forecast annual five-area direct average fed steer price for this year by $2 to $180/cwt., in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Prices were projected at $176 in the first quarter, $180 in the second and third quarters and $184 in the fourth quarter.

USDA analysts say prices were raised on expected strength in first-half demand for fed cattle in the face of tightening feedlot numbers.

At the same time, estimated beef production for this year was estimated slightly higher, up 75 million pounds from the previous report to 26.2. billion pounds. The total would be 778 million pounds less than last year (-2.9%).

“Slaughter is lowered for the first half, reflecting a slower pace of cattle slaughter,” say USDA analysts. “For the second half, steer and heifer slaughter is raised as USDA’s January Cattle report implied a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots than previously expected and to the extent these cattle are placed on feed in the first half, they will likely be marketed and slaughtered in the second half.”

Among other WASDE highlights…

Corn

U.S. corn ending stocks were projected 10 million bushels more than last month. The season-average corn price received by producers was unchanged at $4.80 per bushel.

Wheat

Projected ending stocks were raised 10 million bushels to 658 million. The 2023/24 season-average farm price forecast was unchanged at $7.20 per bushel.

Soybeans

Ending stocks were forecast at 315 million bushels, up 35 million from the prior month.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 was forecast at 10¢ less at $12.65 per bushel. The soybean meal price forecast was unchanged at $380 per short ton. The soybean oil price was forecast 3¢ less at 51¢ per pound.

Cattle futures took a breather Wednesday with traders apparently waiting for the week’s cash direction.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ lower (17¢ lower toward the back to $1.12 lower in the spot month).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 76¢ lower (27¢ lower at the back to $1.27 lower toward the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand in the western Corn Belt to a standstill elsewhere through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $178/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $178-$179 in Kansas, $176-$178.75 in Nebraska and $177-$179 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices $280.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 91¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $294.98/cwt. Select was 82¢ higher at $285.42/cwt.

Apparent fund selling helped pressure Corn and Soybean futures. Positioning ahead of Thursday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates could have played a role, too.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 5¢ to 10¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday, buoyed by strong quarterly earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 156 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 40 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 147 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 52¢ to 55¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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After several months watching El Niño’s influence on the global weather pattern, Meteorologist Matt Makens said the El Niño event that placed moisture on the South and Southeast is fading away and La Niña is showing signs of making a rapid return.

“During the next several weeks, we will continue to see strong and wet storm systems move across the central and southern states. Increased odds for snow and cold as far south as Texas will mean possible impacts on calving and wheat,” Makens explained during the annual CattleFax Outlook Seminar at the recent Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show. “Take this moisture now and make the most of it; look for a good start to this grazing season overall but be mindful that drought conditions will increase for the Southern Plains during summer and fall as we see our pattern change quickly.”

As La Niña’s influence grows, increased heat and drought-related issues are expected for the Central and Southern Plains. The moisture pattern will favor the northern tier of states and the Ohio to Tennessee Valleys.

Cattle futures roared back Tuesday with apparent fund buying.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.78 higher (from $1.95 higher at the back to $3.92 higher at the front).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.04 higher (from $1.05 higher near the back to $3.72 higher toward the front).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $178/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $178-$179 in Kansas, $176-$178.75 in Nebraska and $177-$179 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices $280.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 59¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $294.07/cwt. Select was 83¢ higher at $284.60/cwt.

Soybean futures closed fractionally higher to 3¢ higher through Sep ’25 and then mostly 1¢ lower.

Corn futures closed fractionally mixed after the first three contracts.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower after the first few contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 141 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 11 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 11 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 38¢ to 53¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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U.S. agriculture producers were less optimistic than the previous month in January, according to the latest Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

Month to month, the overall Ag Economy barometer declined 8 points to 106. The Current Conditions Index fell 9 points, and the Future Expectations Index dropped by 7.

“The number of producers pointing to lower commodity prices and lower farm income in 2024 significantly influenced the decline across all indices,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

In January, 31% of respondents anticipated a decline in their operation’s performance this year, compared to 20% in December.

“For the first time, the percentage of producers choosing lower commodity prices as a top concern matched the percentage of producers who chose higher input costs,” Mintert says. “This alignment indicates that U.S. producers are worried about a possible cost/price squeeze leading to lower incomes.”

The latest Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from Jan. 15-19.

Cattle futures closed lower Monday on oversold conditions and likely profit taking as traders await this week’s cash direction.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.89 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.19 lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $178/cwt., $4 higher in Kansas at $178-$179, $1 to $1.75 higher in Nebraska at $176-$178.75 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $177-$179. Dressed delivered prices were $3 higher at $280.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 40¢ higher Monday afternoon at $293.48/cwt. Select was 30¢ higher at $283.77/cwt.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher through Nov ’25.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 11¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower as Treasury yields climbed in response to expectations the Fed will be slower to cut interest rates amid the strong employment outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 274 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 15 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 31 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 50¢ to 64¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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All cattle and calves in the U.S. inventory at the beginning of this year of 87.15 million head was the least since 1951, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University. He lends historical perspective of last week’s USDA Cattle report, in his weekly market comments.

The Jan. 1 beef cow inventory of 28.2 million head was 3.47 million head less (-10.9%) than the cyclical peak in 2019. Peel says, It’s the smallest beef cow herd since 1961.

As well, he explains, The top 10 beef cow states, represent 57.3% of total beef cows and accounted for 79.4% of the year over year decrease in total beef cow numbers. They accounted for 67.7% of the decrease from 2019 to 2024.

Beef replacement heifers on Jan.1 of 4.86 million head were 1.4% less year over year. However, Peel notes, “The 2023 beef replacement heifer inventory was revised down by 4.5% from the initial value reported one year ago.”

Estimated supply of feeder cattle outside feedlots of 24.2 million head was 4.2% less, representing the fewest in the 53 years, according to Peel, who explains

“The smaller cattle inventory is projected to result in a decrease of about 5% in total beef production to roughly 25.5 billion pounds in 2024.

Although That’s three times as much beef as was produced in 1951, the last time the total cattle inventory was this small; Peel says, the current ability to produce beef is smaller than market potential today and the industry will look to rebuild numbers and increase beef production when conditions allow.”  

Cattle futures were narrowly mixed Friday as traders paused at the end of a significantly positive week, fueled by gains in cash fed cattle prices and supported by the friendly Cattle report.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $178/cwt., $4 higher in Kansas at $178-$179, steady to $1 higher in Nebraska at $176-$177 and steady to $5 higher in the western Corn Belt at $177-$179. Dressed delivered prices were $3 higher at $280.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ lower. Week to week, there were an average of $3.99 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 39¢ higher, except for unchanged in away Feb. Week to week, they were an average of $2.36 higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.86 lower Friday afternoon at $293.08/cwt. Select was 22¢ higher at $283.47/cwt. Week to week, Choice was $7.45 lower and Select was down $5.66.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 637,000 head was 19,000 more than the previous week and the same as a year earlier. Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 2.9 million head was 215,000 head fewer (-6.8%) than the same period a year ago. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 2.5 billion pounds was 125.7 million pounds less (-4.8%).

Soybean futures closed 14¢ to 15¢ lower through Sep ’25.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher.   

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Friday, buoyed by tech stocks. That was despite significantly more employment in January than expected.

Total non-farm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The unemployment rate remained at 3.7%. In January, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 19¢ to $34.55. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 134 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 52 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 267 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.25 to $1.54 lower through the front six contracts.

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Higher cattle prices and reduced feeding costs will continue to improve margins for cow-calf producers for the next several years, as reduced cattle numbers and beef production return more leverage to the sector, according to CattleFax.

“Though drought conditions did improve in many regions, over a third of the cow herd was affected by drought in 2023, causing limited heifer retention and more liquidation in some regions. This will limit growth to the cow herd near-term,” Kevin Good, CattleFax vice president of market analysis, explained during the annual CattleFax Outlook Seminar at last week’s Cattle Industry Convention and NCBA Trade Show.

Despite record prices, CattleFax analysts say beef cow herd expansion will likely be delayed again this year with lingering drought, high input costs, limited labor availability, high interest rates, and market uncertainty as headwinds. Overall, they expect cyclical herd expansion to slower and more prolonged this time around with expected lows in fed slaughter by 2026.

Cow and bull slaughter is forecast to be 6.5 million head in 2024, down around 800,000 head, from 2023. CattleFax predicts feeder cattle and calf supplies outside of feedlots will be 1 million head fewer than 2023 at 24.1 million head.

Commercial fed slaughter in 2024 is forecast to decline by 750,000 to 24.8 million head. “Though inventories may remain somewhat elevated for a few months, they are expected to decline significantly through the second half of the year,” according to Good.

CattleFax projects beef production to be 1 billion pounds less than last year. It was about 1.3 billion pounds less year over year in 2023.

Prices for all classes of cattle are forecast to be higher this year, according to Mike Murphy, CattleFax chief operating officer.

CattleFax pegs this year’s annual average price for fed steers $9 higher than last year at $184/cwt. As for other classes:

• Feeder steers (800 lbs.) — $240/cwt.
• Steer calves (550 lbs.) — $290/cwt.
• Utility cows — $115/cwt.
• Bred cows — $2,600/head

Peak cattle prices are likely to come in 2025-26, according to Randy Blach, CattleFax chief executive officer.

Cattle futures charged ahead Thursday, fueled by strong gains in cash fed cattle prices and the bullish Cattle inventory report (see below) released after trading the previous day.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.90 higher ($3.21 higher at the back to $4.72 higher at the front).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.08 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in the Southern Plains through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were mostly $3 higher at mostly $178/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand to moderate on light demand.

So far this week, dressed delivered prices are $3 higher at $280.

Last week, FOB live prices were $175-$177 in Nebraska and $174-$177 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value were 40¢ higher Thursday afternoon at $294.94/cwt. Select was 92¢ lower at $287.05/cwt.

Corn futures closed unchanged to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 12¢ to 19¢ lower.

Cattle futures bounced back Tuesday, perhaps with positioning ahead of Wednesday’s Cattle inventory report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.98 higher, except for 27¢ higher in the back contract.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ higher, 52¢ to $1.27 higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $175/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $174-$175 in Kansas (mostly $175), $175-$177 in Nebraska and $174-$177 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were at $277

Choice boxed beef cutout value (p.m.): $3.35 lower at $296.07/cwt. Select was $1.77 lower at $287.05/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures rallied Tuesday with apparent short covering.

Corn futures closed 6¢ to 8¢ higher through May ’25.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 8¢ to 12¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 12¢ to 24¢ higher.

Cattle futures started Monday’s session with follow-through support that faded as the day wore on amid likely profit taking and positioning ahead of Wednesday’s USDA Cattle inventory report. Although another year of beef cow contraction is widely anticipated, the degree will also depend on whether USDA makes any adjustments to prior-year figures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 94¢ lower (55¢ to $1.32 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 56¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all major cattle feeding regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $175/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $174-$175 in Kansas (mostly $175), $175-$177 in Nebraska and $174-$177 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were at $277.

The five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price last week was $1.68 higher at $175.44/cwt. The five-area direct dressed delivered price was $2.98 higher at $276.87.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.11 lower Monday afternoon at $299.42/cwt. Select was 31¢ lower at $288.82/cwt.

Turning to row crops, grain and soybean futures closed lower Monday with apparent concerns about China’s economy.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 15¢ lower through May ’25 and then mainly fractionally higher.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, led by bullish tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 224 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 36 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 172 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 96¢ to $1.23 lower through the front six contracts.

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Besides offering a glimpse of the beef cow inventory, Wednesday’s USDA Cattle report offer opportunity to corroborate notions about how the monthly feedlot inventory has exceeded year-ago levels in the face of estimated reductions in the number of cattle available for placement.

Kenny Burdine, Extension livestock economist at the University of Kentucky notes earlier marketing due to dry conditions was partly the reason, along with increased imports of heavier feeder cattle from Mexico. He also points to the counter-cyclical increase in slaughter weights during the last couple of months last year.

“Cheaper feed in the fourth quarter was likely the driving factor, but this ultimately means that cattle were on feed for a longer period of time,” Burdine explains, in the latest issue of Cattle Market Notes Weekly. “This seems to be supported by increased estimates of cattle on feed over 90 and 120 days and also partially explains the higher feedlot inventories.”

Moreover, Burdine notes the high percentage of heifers on feed, explaining

“The number of heifers on feed (Jan. 1) was higher than the last quarter and higher than January of 2023. While heifers as a percent of on-feed inventory declined slightly in January, it remained just under 40%, and Burdine says that During expansionary times, the percentage of heifers on feed tends to be in the lower to middle of the 30% range. In sum, he says A number near 40% does not suggest that heifer retention is ongoing and continues to suggest that expansion is not immediately visible on the nearby horizon.”