Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, buoyed by lighter carcass weights due to the weather, higher cash fed cattle prices and strong wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.62 higher. Week to week, they were up an average of $7.64.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 94¢ higher. They were an average of $3.70 higher week to week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1.50 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $175/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $174-$175 (mostly $175), $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at $175-$177 and from $1 lower to $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $174-$177. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$4 higher at $277.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.85 higher Friday afternoon at $300.53/cwt. Select was $1.28 higher at $289.13/cwt. Week to week, Choice was $5.03 higher and Select was $6.08 higher.

Grain and soybean futures continued to chop in search of a low Friday.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ’25.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 60 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 55 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 64¢ to 67¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 618,000 head was 1,000 head more than the previous week but 35,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Year-to-date estimated cattle slaughter of 2.3 million head was 204,000 head fewer (-8.1%) than the same period a year ago. Year-to-date estimated beef production of 1.96 billion pounds was 120.4 million pounds less (-5.8%).

As long as current consumer beef demand holds, beef prices should continue higher, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

“It is not necessary for beef demand to increase to push prices higher. As long as demand stays steady then one would expect beef prices to increase as beef production declines with the number of cattle moving through the system,” Griffith says. “Consumers are currently focused on end meats, but it will not be long before retailers shift their focus toward middle meats.”

Griffith also notes, “It seems there has been a shift in consumer preferences with the wide Choice Select spread, and the spread will widen further.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices bounced higher Thursday.

FOB live prices were $1.50 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $175/cwt., $2 higher in Kansas at $175, $2-$4 higher in Nebraska at $175-$177 and unevenly steady in the western Corn Belt at $174-$176. Dressed delivered prices $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $277. Prices in the western Corn Belt last week were $273-$274.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 82¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $298.68/cwt. Select was 61¢ higher at $287.85/cwt.

Stronger cash fed cattle prices and strong country demand for calves and feeder cattle helped push Cattle futures higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.54 higher ($2.72 higher at the back to $4.40 higher in spot Mar), not counting Jan going off the board 20¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.53 higher (60¢ higher at the back to $2.37 higher in the front contract).

Turning to row crops, traders took some of the South American weather premium back out of Soybean futures, which closed mostly 10¢ to 17¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 1¢ to 11¢ higher through May ’25 and then 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, supported by more bullish domestic GDP than expected. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter of 2023, according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Real GDP increased 4.9% in the third quarter.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 242 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 25 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 28 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.90 to $2.27 higher through the front six contracts.

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Food price growth slowed last year with less economy-wide inflationary pressure, fewer supply chain issues, and lower wholesale food prices, according to USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

Food-at-home prices increased by 5.0% in 2023, much lower than the growth rate of 11.4% in 2022 but still double the historical annual average growth of 2.5% from 2003 to 2022, according to ERS.

Beef and veal prices rose 3.6% last year, more slowly than their historical averages. Pork prices declined 1.2%.

For broader perspective, the steepest price increases last year were 9.0% for fats and oils, 8.7% for sugar and sweets and 8.4% for cereal and bakery products.

ERS researchers project overall food-at-home prices will decrease 0.4% this year.

Cattle futures extended gains Wednesday with help from higher cash fed cattle prices, albeit in limited trade.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 53¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 61¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was moderate on moderate demand in Kansas through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. FOB live prices were $1 higher at $174/cwt.

Elsewhere, trade was mostly inactive on light demand. FOB live prices last week were $173.50/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $173 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $273-$274.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 lower Wednesday afternoon at $299.50/cwt. Select was $1.14 lower at $287.24/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 8¢ to 9¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ higher after Sep ’24.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed again Wednesday after early support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 99 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 55 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 58¢ to 72¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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Beef supplies in cold storage continue to be less year over year, according to the latest reportfrom USDA.

Total pounds of beef in freezers Dec. 31 were 6% more than the previous month but 11% less than the same time last year.

Similarly, frozen pork supplies were up 3% from the previous month but down 6% from the prior year.

Total red meat supplies in freezers were 4% more than the previous month but 9% less than a year earlier.

On the other hand, total frozen poultry supplies were up 4% from the previous month and up slightly from a year earlier.

Cattle futures bounced higher Tuesday with support from stronger wholesale beef values. Feeder Cattle were also buoyed by hefty cash trade.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.87 higher ($1.47 to $2.37 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 63¢ higher.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.99 higher Tuesday afternoon at 301.66/cwt., the highest level since the first part of November. Select was $1.80 higher at $288.38/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $173.50/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $173 in Kansas $173 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $273-$274.

Soybean futures closed mostly 8¢ to 15¢ higher through Sep ’25 and then 6¢ higher with chatter about softer South American production.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday on mixed earnings reports.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 96 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 14 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 65 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 36¢ to 39¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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USDA will release the much-anticipated semiannual Cattle report next Wednesday with estimates of the cattle inventory. In the meantime, other data continues pointing to the lack of her rebuilding so far.

For one, the ratio of beef cows and heifers in last year’s slaughter mix was near record high, according to analysts with USDA Economic Research Service (ERS), in the January Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. Specifically, ERS analysts say beef cows and heifers comprised 42.1% of cattle slaughter last year, only slightly less than the previous year’s record 42.3% (since the data series began in 1986).

“In 2023, all classes of slaughter were down from the prior year. However, the proportion of heifers and cows in the slaughter mix was higher than anticipated a year ago,” say ERS analysts. “The expectation was that as drought from 2020–22 largely receded, pasture conditions improved, and calf prices rose, producers would be more willing to retain heifers and cows to maintain or expand their herds.”

As well, heifers comprised 39.4% of the cattle on feed, Jan.1, according to the most recent Cattle on Feed report. That was about the same as the previous year’s historically high percentage. In raw numbers, however, there were 4.74 million heifers on feed Jan. 1, compared to 4.65 million head the previous year.

Cattle futures faded early pressure to close narrowly mixed Monday. Despite the neutral Cattle on Feed report, reasons for skittishness included anemic cash fed cattle trade at static prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed from an average of 44¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 24¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed from an average of 27¢ lower in the front five contracts to an average of 31¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices last week were $1.50 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $173.50/cwt., $1 higher in Kansas at $173, and steady in the North at $173 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were unevenly steady in the Nebraska at $273-$274 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $273-$274.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 29¢ higher at $173.76/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steers price was 19¢ higher at $273.89.

Choice boxed beef cutout value (p.m.): $3.17 higher at 298.67/cwt. Select was $3.53 higher at $286.58/cwt.

Soybean futures closed mostly 6¢ to 7¢ higher.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday on follow-through support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 138 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 10 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 49 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.56 to $1.78 higher through the front six contracts.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday on follow-through support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 395 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 255 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 67¢ to 71¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Between year-end holidays and widespread severe winter weather in the new year, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says it will likely take another week or two to sort out both beef demand and supply conditions. That assumes no further disruptions.

Peel notes in his weekly market comments boxed beef markets decreased the first week of January as retailers assessed holiday markets and sorted out post-holiday beef pipelines. Suspended packer production, tied to the weather pushed wholesale beef prices higher.

As the new year began, analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC) explain prices for wholesale 50% fresh lean beef trimmings were $144/cwt. less (-72%) than during the summer.

“Wholesale 50% lean beef trimming prices dropped below the five-year average at the end of October after soaring most of the year,” say LMIC analysts, in the latest Livestock Monitor. “For the last nine weeks, these prices have been below the five-year average by 8% to 25%. This level of decline is somewhat concerning given November and December fed cattle slaughter was down 4% from 2022, indicating significantly smaller supplies.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade on Friday ranged from a standstill in the Southern Plains to slow on light demand in the North, but with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. The previous week, FOB live prices were $172/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $173 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $272-$275 in Nebraska and $275 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 79¢ lower Friday afternoon at 295.50/cwt. Select was 71¢ lower at $283.05/cwt. Week to week, Choice was up $6.24 and Select was $11.20 higher.

Cattle futures mainly paddled in place Friday ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below) and awaiting the week’s cash fed cattle direction.

Feeder Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 35¢ lower in the front five contracts to an average of 24¢ higher. They were an average of $4.06 higher week to week.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 24¢ lower to an average of 14¢ higher. Week to week, they were up an average of $2.48.

Corn futures closed narrowly mixed, from 1¢ lower to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower through Mar ’25 and then mostly fractionally higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices surged higher Friday, underpinned by bullish consumer data. Consumer sentiment was 13.1% higher month to month in January and reached the highest level since July 2021, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 395 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 58 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 255 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 67¢ to 71¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Markets should view Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report as neutral, coming in about dead even with pre-report estimates.

Feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity placed 1.7 million head in December, which was 80,000 head fewer (-4.5%) than the prior year.

In terms of placement weights, 50% went on feed weighing 699 pounds or less, 38% weighing 700-899 pounds and 12% weighing 900 pounds or more.

Marketings in December of 1.7 million head were 16,000 head fewer (-0.9%) than a year earlier.

Cattle on feed Jan. 1 of 11.9 million head were 248,000 more (+2.1%) than the same time last year.

Cattle futures stretched higher Thursday, led by Feeder Cattle. Recently higher wholesale beef prices and growing prospects of steady to higher cash fed cattle prices this week added support. There was also likely some positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report scheduled for release Friday. Analyst estimates ahead of the report peg December placements about 4% lower year over year, December marketings about 0.5% less and the Jan. 1 feedlot inventory about 2% higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.21 higher ($1.65 to $2.77 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.41 higher (1.00 to $2.02 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, FOB live prices were $172/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $173 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $272-$275 in Nebraska and $275 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 lower Thursday afternoon at 296.29/cwt. Select was 74¢ higher at $283.76/cwt.

Grain and Soybean futures firmed on apparently oversold conditions and positive outside markets.

Soybean futures closed 1¢ to 7¢ higher through Mar ’25 and then 1¢ to 5¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 9¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led tech stocks. Pressure early in the day came from indicators of a tighter labor market.  

Seasonally adjusted weekly initial unemployment insurance claims were 187,000 for the week ending Jan. 13, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. That was less than the trade expected, pointing to further tightness in the labor market.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 201 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 41 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 200 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.16 to $1.52 higher through the front six contracts.

Cattle futures faded early pressure to close mostly higher Wednesday with help from resurgent wholesale beef values.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 83¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 45¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in spot Feb.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from inactive on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, FOB live prices were $172/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $173 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $272-$275 in Nebraska and $275 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.46 higher through Wednesday afternoon at 298.45/cwt. Select was $3.04 higher at $283.02/cwt.

Soybean futures closed mostly 11¢ to 21¢ lower on weak economic news in China.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices continued lower Wednesday with pressure including the rise in bond yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 94 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 26 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 88 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 4¢ to 24¢ lower through the front six contracts except for 16¢ higher in spot Feb.

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Although current cattle markets and the surrounding economics are obviously different than in 2014-15, when cattle numbers were similarly snug, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee says prices are poised to push higher.

“One clear price expectation from a supply and demand standpoint and a seasonal standpoint is that calf prices will increase from today through April,” Griffith says in his weekly market comments. “Despite the seasonal trend, calf prices are expected to be steady or move even higher following the grass cattle run in March and April. This will be simply due to fewer calves on the market.”

Moreover, Griffith notes higher calf prices tend to lead to higher prices for most classes of cattle.

“For instance, production sales have demonstrated a strong price for herd sires to start the year,” he says. “This will likely mean strong prices for bred females moving throughout the year, which will lead to stronger prices for slaughter cows.”

Cattle futures strengthened Tuesday, helped along by recently higher wholesale beef values and likely lower fed cattle carcass weights in the near term due to the severe winter weather.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.16 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 74¢ higher (22¢ higher at the back to $1.75 higher in spot Feb).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, FOB live prices were $172/cwt. in the Southern, Plains $173 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $272-$275 in Nebraska and $275 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.57 higher Tuesday afternoon at 294.99/cwt. Select was $7.42 higher at $279.98/cwt.

The higher dollar helped pressure Wheat futures, leading Corn futures along.

The higher U.S. dollar helped pressure Wheat futures, pulling Corn along.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 4¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 10¢ to 14¢ lower.

Lower South American production estimates helped support Soybean futures. They closed 1¢ to 3¢ higher through near Aug and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Tuesday as yield for the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbed.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 231 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 17 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 28 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 27¢ to 37¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Perhaps the more domestic retail beef consumers change the more they stay the same. Consider recent research conducted by Kansas State University (K-State) with partial funding from the Kansas Beef Council. More than 3,000 consumers responded to a nationally representative survey aimed at determining the current importance of specific beef attributes to consumers.

Freshness (51% of respondents), price (51%) and food safety (49%) were overwhelmingly ranked as the top three attributes by consumers overall. Flavorful, juicy and tender ranked fourth.

“On the other end of our ranking spectrum were 1) supporting local farmers, 2) nutritious content, and 3) low carbon beef. Less than one‐quarter of respondents indicated any of these three were among the most important,” according to K-State researchers. “A surprising 57% of our respondents placed low carbon beef as least important. Given elevating importance of public concerns about greenhouse gas emissions and contributions of beef cattle production to greenhouse gases, as well as branded products being developed in this space, we expected more consumers to rank this attribute important.”

With that said, researchers note each of the nine attributes consumer could choose were among the most important to some and the least important to others.

“This illustrates heterogeneous preferences of consumers for beef product attributes,” according to the report. “Furthermore, it indicates a variety of beef product claims can potentially be successful in attracting consumers. For example, roughly one‐quarter of consumers indicate animal welfare, no hormone/antibiotic use, supports local farmers, and nutritious content are among their three most important beef purchase decision determinants.”

These are the nine beef attributes consumers were asked to rank: price; freshness; flavorful, juicy, tender; nutritious content; safety of food; supports local farmers; low carbon beef; animal welfare; produced without use of hormones or antibiotics.

Futures and equity markets were closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King, Jr.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Last week, they wobbled on either side of steady. FOB live prices were steady to $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $172/cwt., steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $173. and steady in the western Corn Belt at $175. Dressed delivered prices were 50¢ to $2 lower in Nebraska at $272-$275 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $275 on a light test.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 54¢ lower at $173.47. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $1.08 lower at $273.70.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.16 higher Monday afternoon at 291.42/cwt. Select was 71¢ higher at $272.56/cwt.

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All hay production last year of 118.8 million tons was 7.1 million tons (+6.4%) more than the previous year, according to USDA’s recent annual Crop Production summary.

However, that was 7.8% less than the 10-year average for 2012-21, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Total Dec. 1, 2023 hay stocks were 6.9% higher than one year earlier but were 10.8% below the 10-year average,” Peel says, in his weekly market comments. “Hay stocks in the top 10 beef cow states were up 18.5% year over year but were 7.3% below the 2012-2021 average for these states. Total Dec. 1 hay stocks in these states represented 52.8% of total U.S. hay stocks.” He adds that hay stocks were higher year over year in eight of the 10 top beef cow states. Year-over-year production was less in Kansas and Kentucky.

Although the hay situation is more positive this winter than last, Peel emphasizes hay stocks remain below the 10-year average, and current severe winter weather will significantly increase hay usage.