Daily Market Highlights

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 49¢ higher Friday, helped by falling Corn futures, which were pressured by the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below). Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle closed an average of $3.25 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 26¢ lower, except for unchanged and 22¢ higher in the back two contracts. Week to week on Friday, they were an average of 61¢ higher (2¢ to $1.07 higher), except for unchanged and 37¢ lower in two away contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to slow on light demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were a few FOB live trades in the Southern Plains at $172/cwt. Established prices the previous week were $172-$173.

Established FOB live prices last week were steady to $2 lower in Nebraska at $173 and steady in the western Corn Belt at $174. Dressed delivered prices were 50¢ to $2 lower in Nebraska at $272-$275 and steady to $1 higher in the western Corn Belt at $275 on a light test.

Through Thursday, the weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was 33¢ lower at $174.32. The weighted average dressed delivered fed steer price was $1.11 lower at $273.63.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.37 higher Friday afternoon at 289.26/cwt. Select was $1.91 higher at $271.85/cwt. Week to week, Choice was $12.10 higher and Select was $12.32 higher.

Corn and Soybean futures fell Friday in response to higher than expected yield and production estimates in the monthly WASDE. Kansas City Wheat futures followed along, despite a reduction in expected planted area.

Corn futures closed mostly 7¢ to 10¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower. Week to week on Friday, Corn futures an average of 13’3¢ lower through the front six contracts.

Soybean futures closed 11¢ to 25¢ lower through Aug ’24 and then mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower through May ’25 and then unchanged.

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Major U.S. financial indices were mixed Friday. Support included a more favorable inflation reading than expected in the monthly Producer Price Index for final demand, which declined 0.1% in December (seasonally adjusted), according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Final demand prices were 0.1% lower in November and 0.4% lower in October.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 118 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 3 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 2 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 66¢ to 73¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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The projected five-area direct weighted average fed steer price was unchanged, compared to the previous month, in the latest monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) projects an average price of $175/cwt. in the first quarter, $177 in the second quarter, $178 in the third quarter and $183 in the fourth quarter for an annual average price of $178.

That’s with beef production this year estimated 120 million pounds more than the previous forecast at 26.1 billion pounds, based on higher expected cattle slaughter in the first half of the year, as well as higher dressed weights. The total would be 857 million pounds less (-3.2%) than the estimated 2023 total of 27 billion pounds.

Among other WASDE highlights…

USDA surprised some with higher projected corn and soybean production.

U.S. 2023-24 corn production was estimated at a record 15.3 billion bushels — 108 million bushels more than the previous estimate — based on an increase in yield to a record 177.3 bushels per acre. With supply rising more than use, 2023-24 corn stocks were projected 31 million bushels higher. The season-average corn price received by producers was lowered 5¢ to $4.80 per bushel.

USDA also projected the U.S. 2023-24 soybean production 35 million bushels more than the previous month at 4.2 billion bushels. Yield was estimated at 50.6 bushels per acre, up 0.7 bushels. With increased supplies and slightly lower residual, ending stocks were projected 35 million bushels higher at 280 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023-24 was projected 15¢ lower at $12.75 per bushel. The soybean meal price was projected $10 less at $380 per short ton. The soybean oil price was forecast 3¢ lower at 54¢ per pound.

Finally, projected 2023-24 U.S. wheat ending stocks were lowered 11 million bushels on decreased supplies more than offsetting less use.

The 2023-24 season-average farm price was forecast 10¢ lower per bushel at $7.20, based on prices received to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2023-24.

Cattle futures faded early pressure Thursday to close higher with support including the bounce higher in Choice wholesale beef prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.24 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ higher (32¢ to $1.05 higher).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.82 higher Thursday afternoon at 285.89/cwt. Select was $3.00 higher at $269.94/cwt.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from a standstill to slow on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt are steady at $175/cwt. and dressed delivered sales are steady to $1 higher at $274-$275.

Action in grain futures Thursday appeared to be tied mainly to positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate and quarterly Grain Stocks report.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 7¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices faltered Thursday with slightly higher inflation than expected.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.1% in November, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last 12 months, the-all items index increased 3.4% before seasonal adjustment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 15 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 3 points lower. The NASDAQ was fractionally higher.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 63¢ to 67¢ higher through the front six contracts.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to mostly a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were a few early FOB live trades in the western Corn Belt at $175/cwt. and a few dressed delivered sales at $274-$275.

Last week, FOB live prices were $172-$173/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $173-$175 in Nebraska and $175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were generally $274-$275.50.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.91 higher Wednesday afternoon at 283.07/cwt. Select was $4.11 higher at $266.94/cwt.

Cattle futures consolidated to the upside Wednesday.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 24¢ higher, except for 2¢ lower in spot Feb.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.01 higher.

Soybean were down on South American production forecasts Wednesday. They closed 8¢ to 12¢ lower through Aug ’24 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

Grain futures mainly held ground ahead of Friday’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower. KC HRW Wheat futures closed 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday ahead of key inflation data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 170 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 111 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 62¢ to 87¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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U.S. beef exports slowed in November, recording the third lowest value of 2023, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 99,029 metric tons (mt) in November, down 14% from a year ago and the second lowest of the year, while value fell 7% to $786.2 million. For the first 11 months of the year, beef exports were 13% below the record pace of 2022 at 1.18 million mt, while value declined 17% to $9.11 billion.

November beef export value equated to $380.54 per head of fed slaughter, down slightly year-over-year. The January-November average fell 13% to $394.07 per head but was still the third highest on record, trailing only 2021 and 2022.

“There are certainly bright spots for U.S. beef, with exports rebounding in Mexico and demand in several Western Hemisphere markets the strongest we’ve seen in years,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF president and CEO. “But economic conditions in our largest Asian markets and the sharp rebound in Australian production and exports have been persistent obstacles over the past year, making it a sharp contrast with the tremendous 2022 performance for U.S. beef exports. Despite these challenges, we still see sustained demand for chilled U.S. beef, and the U.S. remains the dominant supplier of chilled beef entering Korea, Japan and Taiwan.”

Cattle futures moved higher early in the day, supported by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices, looming performance-depressing weather and some thoughts that the bottom is in or near for Choice wholesale beef values. By the end, Feeder Cattle closed mostly higher with help from lower Corn futures, while Live Cattle finished lower, perhaps with technical pressure tied to the broader commodity sell-off.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 48¢ higher, except for an average of 21¢ lower in two contracts.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 51¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were steady to $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $172-$173/cwt., $3 higher in Nebraska at $173-$175/cwt. and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $175. Dressed delivered prices were generally $1-$2 higher at $274-$275.50.

The weighted average five-area direct fed steer price last week was $1.77 higher at $174.01/cwt. The weighted average dressed steer price was $1.91 higher at $274.78.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.67 higher Monday afternoon at 278.83/cwt. Select was 17¢ lower at $259.36/cwt.

Turning to row crops, rains in South America continued to pressure Soybean futures Monday, helping lead grain futures lower.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 10¢ lower through Jly ’24 and then mostly 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices bounced higher Monday, led by tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 216 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 66 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 319 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.54 to $3.04 lower through the front six contracts, with chatter about Saudi Arabia selling at lower prices outside of OPEC.

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The semiannual USDA Cattle report, scheduled for release Jan. 31, will provide quantification of how much the beef cow herd contracted last year but will be unable to say anything about rebuilding plans this year.

“Beef cow herd liquidation will likely slow, perhaps stop in 2024; though there is little chance of any significant rebuild for a year or more. It will, of course, depend on weather and forage conditions in the coming year,” says Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, in his weekly market comments. “The heifer retention needed to rebuild the herd will squeeze feeder supplies, feedlot production, cattle slaughter and beef production going forward. However, it is unclear how aggressive that process will be.”

Although production costs are easing, and drought conditions have improved in many regions, Peel points out producers in these regions need time for forage recovery, and in some cases, water recovery. At the same time, drought continues for some.

“With considerable uncertainty remaining about moisture and forage conditions for the coming growing season, many producers are logically taking a very cautious approach to animal stocking,” Peel says.

Cattle futures softened Friday with continued pressure by the week’s decline in Choice wholesale beef prices. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.26 higher Friday afternoon at 277.16/cwt. and Select was 71¢ higher at $259.53/cwt. Week to week, however, Choice was down $12.55, while Select was 80¢ lower.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.26 lower. Week to week, they were an average of 88¢ higher (22¢ to $1.40 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 73¢ lower (47¢ to $1.30 lower). They were an average of 77¢ higher week to week (2¢ to $2.07 higher).

Pressure may also have stemmed from disappointment that stronger cash fed cattle prices faded at the end of the week.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were steady to $3 higher in Nebraska at $173-$175/cwt. and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $175. Dressed delivered prices were $1-$2 higher at $274-$275. The previous week, FOB live prices were $172-$173 in Kansas and $172 in the Texas Panhandle.

Weekly U.S. beef export sales were positive. Net U.S. beef export sales for 2023 the week ending Dec. 28 (9,500 metric tons) were up noticeably from the previous week and up 69% from the prior four-week average. Increases primarily were for China, Japan, Mexico, and South Korea.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 7,100 metric tons for 2024 were primarily for Taiwan, Mexico, South Korea and Hong Kong.

Total cattle slaughter last week of 556,000 head was 48,000 more than the previous week but 9,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Beef production for the first week of 2024 of 470.3 million pounds was 40.9 million pounds more than the previous week and 3.6 million pounds more than the same week last year.

Turning to row crops, rains in South America continued to pressure Soybean futures Friday. Export sales also applied pressure to grains. Sales were a marketing year low for corn and soybeans, while wheat export sales were 52% less than the previous week and 79% less than the prior four-week average.

Soybean futures closed mostly 11¢ to 14¢ lower.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 7¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Friday with support including the positive employment outlook. Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday.

In December, average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls rose by 15¢ (0.4%) to $34.27. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 4.1%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 25 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 13 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.16 to $1.62 higher through the front six contracts.

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Although the number of cattle on feed remains elevated, Andrew P. Griffith points out those cattle will wend their way through the market during the first half of this year, leaving snugger numbers in their wake.

“Calf and feeder cattle numbers will tighten in the first half of 2024 and will tighten even more the second half of the year if climatic conditions allow cattle producers to retain heifers and rebuild the cattle herd,” Griffith explains in his weekly market comments. “With that being said, the current market is set up for strong prices on all classes of cattle. The determinant of how high prices will go will eventually come down to consumer demand for beef, but there is no doubt every margin operator up and down the supply chain will be competing for a smaller quantity of cattle this year than last year.”

Griffith notes snugger numbers will include slaughter cows.

“ … there are fewer cows in general and many cow-calf producers will be trying to get one more calf to capitalize on strong calf prices in 2024 and 2025,” he explains.

Cattle futures softened Thursday with pressure including the recent free-fall in Choice wholesale beef values and relatively light volume.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.08 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ lower.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $175/cwt. and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $175. Dressed delivered prices in Nebraska are $2 higher at $275.

Last week, FOB live prices were $172 in the Southern Plains. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $273.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.13 lower Thursday afternoon at 275.90/cwt. Select was 3¢ lower at $258.82/cwt.

Wheat futures closed higher on thoughts the bottom might be in, helping Corn futures edge higher.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 9¢ lower through Jan ’26.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed and narrowly mixed Thursday, following strong early support.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 10 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 16 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 81 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 51¢ to 69¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Lower expected fed cattle prices than earlier expectations have helped pushed projected cattle feeding returns firmly into the red for the next five months, according to Kansas State University’s Historical and Projected Kansas Feedlot Net Returns. Keep in mind the following projections do not include price risk management.

Projected net returns for steers range from -$154.46 per head in May to -$273.56 in current January. Estimated feedlot cost of gain ranges from $110.83/cwt. in May to $122.96 in January.

The story is similar for heifers with projected net returns ranging from -$44.29 per head in May to -$240.28 in February. Estimated feedlot cost of gain ranges from $116.57/cwt. in May to $131.28 in January.

Cattle futures struggled to a narrowly mixed close Wednesday, pressured by lower outside markets and falling wholesale beef values through much of the session. Stronger cash fed cattle prices added support later.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 19¢ lower to an average of 43¢ higher.

Live Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 12¢ lower in three contracts to an average of 25¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in the North through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $175/cwt., where dressed delivered prices were $2 higher at $275.

FOB live prices in the western Corn Belt were $3 higher at $175. Dressed delivered prices there last week were $273.

Trade was at a standstill in the Southern Plains where FOB live prices last week were $172.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.31 lower Wednesday afternoon at 278.03/cwt. Select was 1¢ lower at $258.85/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally mixed to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower through May ’25 and then 1¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 1¢ to 4¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday. Part of the pressure appeared to be investor disappointment in the latest Fed minutes offering no clarity about the timing of interest rate cuts.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 284 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 38 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 173 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.00 to $2.32 higher through the front six contracts.

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Overall drought conditions continue to improve, according to the last U.S. Drought Monitor of 2023 (Dec. 26). At the time, 45.7% of the continental United States was free of abnormal dryness or drought conditions. That was true of 26% of the nation a year earlier. Spun differently 34% of cattle were in areas affected by drought at the end of 2023. A year earlier, 61% of cattle were in drought areas.

At the end of December, there was a 54% chance of a historically strong El Niño during the current November-January season, according to the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center. As well, current conditions suggest it could be among the five strongest El Niños recorded since 1950, according to the most recent El Niño advisory. There is a 60% chance the current El Niño will transition to neutral conditions in the April-June timeframe.

Cattle futures rallied on Tuesday, supported by last week’s stronger cash fed cattle prices and more trade volume.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.10 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.79 higher, ($1.15 to $3.42 higher), except for 82¢ lower in newly minted away Jun.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. Although too few to trend, there were some early FOB live sales in the western Corn Belt at $175/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $172 in the Southern Plains, $172-$173 in Nebraska and $172-$172.50 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $273.

The five-area weighted average FOB live fed steer price last week was $1.73 higher at $172.24/cwt. The average dressed delivered price was $2.49 higher at $272.87.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $5.37 lower Tuesday afternoon at 284.34/cwt. Select was $1.47 lower at $258.86/cwt.

The positive outlook for South America and likely technical selling helped shove Soybean futures lower, dragging Grain futures along.

Corn futures closed mostly 5¢ to 10¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 9¢ to 13¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 19¢ to 26¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mixed Tuesday with pressure on tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 25 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 245 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.03 to $1.27 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although U.S. agricultural producer expectations for inflation subsided, producer sentiment declined slightly in December, according to the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer.

The overall reading was 1 point lower month to month in December at 114.

Both subindices of the barometer, the Index of Current Conditions and the Index of Future Expectations, mirrored the slight decline, settling one point below their respective November figures at 112 and 115.

The Farm Financial Performance Index increased 2 points. Since late summer, the index has climbed 11 points. At year-end, it was 21 points above the low point for 2023, which occurred in May.

“The shift in farmers’ perception of financial performance during the fall quarter corresponds with USDA’s more optimistic 2023 farm income outlook released in late November, which was $10 billion higher than their previous forecast,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Producers’ inflation expectations moderated, with 70% expecting inflation in 2024 to be less than 4%. By comparison, 50% of the producers anticipated an inflation rate of 6% or higher a year ago. When asked about interest rates, 34% of respondents said they anticipate rates declining in 2024 while 22% expect no change in interest rates in the upcoming year.

Farmers concerned about the risk of lower prices for crops and livestock decreased from 26% of respondents in December to 16% in January.

This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from Dec. 4-8.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $172/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $172, $1 higher in Nebraska at $172-$173 and mostly $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $172-$172.50. Dressed delivered prices were $3 higher at $273.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.57 lower Friday afternoon at 289.71/cwt. Select was $1.09 higher at $260.33/cwt. Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.22 lower and Select was 82¢ lower .

Year-to-date estimated total cattle slaughter of 32.2 million head was 1.4 million head fewer (-4.2%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 26.6 billion lbs. was 1.3 billion pounds less (-4.6%).

Cattle and grain futures closed mainly narrowly mixed as traders closed the books on 2023.

Feeder Cattle futures closed mixed, from an average of 7¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 78¢ higher (12¢ to $1.82 higher). Week to week, they closed mixed, from an average of 80¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of $2.15 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 15¢ lower to an average of 37¢ higher, except for expiring Dec closing $2.47 higher. Week to week on Friday, after $3.62 higher in expiring Dec, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ higher (2¢ to $1.50 higher), except for an average of 5¢ lower in two contracts. 

On Friday, Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then unchanged to fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed fractionally lower to 1¢ lower through Dec ’24 and then fractionally higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 11¢ to 14¢ lower.

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I had just one weekly Friday auction to report…for Dunlap Livestock Auction in Iowa, where Compared to two weeks earlier, steers weighing 550-650 lbs. sold mostly steady and Steers weighing 700-800 lbs. sold $5-$8 higher. Heifers weighing 500-600 lbs. traded mostly steady to $3 higher and then mostly $4-$7 higher at 700 lbs. There were 1,443 head on offer.

Remember, you can get a weekly market summary and highlights in the CalfNews Price Point podcast that comes out each Tuesday. You’ll find it at CalfNews.net

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Major U.S. financial indices edged lower Friday on likely year-end position squaring.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 20 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 13 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 83 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 12¢ to 18¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Steer by product value in 2023 was the highest last January at $14.28/cwt. It never reached that level again, dropping below $12 in December.

“In July, the steer, hide and offal value began to trend higher, reaching about $13.70/cwt. by late September, but the value has moderated lower over the last two months,” explain analysts with the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), in the most recent Livestock Monitor. LMIC analysts say recently lower values are due to declines for livers, tripe, tongues and tallow.

The third week of September, when steer by product value was near $13.70, Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee reminded in his weekly market comments that the price was significantly higher than the $8-$9 range from 2018-2020.

“Thus, prices today contribute an additional $50 of value per head compared to 2018 through 2020, which directly translates to higher prices for finished cattle,” Griffith explained. “The driver of the byproduct value tends to be the export market as many of these products have a higher value in the international market than the domestic market. As interest rates and inflation continue to negatively influence consumers across the world, there could be some softening in byproduct values.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $172/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $172 and mostly $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $172-$172.50.

Last week, FOB live prices were $171-$172 in Nebraska. Dressed delivered prices were $270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ lower Thursday afternoon at 291.28/cwt. Select was $1.08 lower at $259.24/cwt.

Cattle futures softened Thursday amid light trade once again and perhaps with some year-end position squaring.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.42 lower (72¢ to $2.27 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ lower, except for an average of 34¢ higher at either end of the board.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher, helped along by increased tensions in the Black Sea.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 53 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 4 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.24 to $2.37 lower through the front six contracts.

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Food price increases are expected to moderate further in 2024, according to the recently updated Food Price Outlook from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, decreased 0.2% from October 2023 to November 2023 and was up 3.1% from November 2022,” according to ERS. “The CPI for all food decreased 0.2% from October 2023 to November 2023, and food prices were 2.9% higher than in November 2022.”

More specifically, the food-at-home CPI decreased 0.5% month to month in November and was up 1.7% year over year. Conversely, the CPI for food purchased away from home increased 0.4% from October through November was 5.3% higher than a year earlier.

Next year, ERS predicts all food prices to increase 1.2%, compared to this year’s projection of a 5.8% increase. Prices for food at home were projected to decrease 0.6% while prices for food away from home were expected to increase 4.9%.