Daily Market Highlights

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand to mostly inactive on light demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $172/cwt., $1-$2 higher in Kansas at $172 and mostly $2 higher in the western Corn Belt at $172-$172.50.

Last week, FOB live prices were $171-$172 in Nebraska. Dressed delivered prices were $270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 20¢ lower Thursday afternoon at 291.28/cwt. Select was $1.08 lower at $259.24/cwt.

Cattle futures softened Thursday amid light trade once again and perhaps with some year-end position squaring.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.42 lower (72¢ to $2.27 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 44¢ lower, except for an average of 34¢ higher at either end of the board.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 4¢ to 5¢ higher, helped along by increased tensions in the Black Sea.

Soybean futures closed mostly 4¢ to 8¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 53 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 1 point higher. The NASDAQ was down 4 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.24 to $2.37 lower through the front six contracts.

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Food price increases are expected to moderate further in 2024, according to the recently updated Food Price Outlook from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

“The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, decreased 0.2% from October 2023 to November 2023 and was up 3.1% from November 2022,” according to ERS. “The CPI for all food decreased 0.2% from October 2023 to November 2023, and food prices were 2.9% higher than in November 2022.”

More specifically, the food-at-home CPI decreased 0.5% month to month in November and was up 1.7% year over year. Conversely, the CPI for food purchased away from home increased 0.4% from October through November was 5.3% higher than a year earlier.

Next year, ERS predicts all food prices to increase 1.2%, compared to this year’s projection of a 5.8% increase. Prices for food at home were projected to decrease 0.6% while prices for food away from home were expected to increase 4.9%.

Cattle futures closed mixed Wednesday in light holiday trade.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 57¢ higher (7¢ to 92¢ higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 34¢ lower (12¢ to $1.12 lower), except for 15¢ higher in waning spot Dec.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $171/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle, $170-$171 in Kansas, $171-$172 in Nebraska and $170 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.83 lower Wednesday at 291.48/cwt. Select was 87¢ lower at $260.32/cwt.

Grain futures closed lower Wednesday on likely profit taking.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 11¢ lower

Soybean futures closed unchanged to 3¢ higher through Nov ’24 and then 1¢ to to 2¢ lower.        

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Wednesday with continued optimism tied to the lower inflation and interest rate outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 111 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 6 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 24 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 99¢ to $1.46 lower through the front six contracts.

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Although Creighton University’s Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) edged higher month to month in December to 41.7, it remained below growth neutral for the fourth consecutive month. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral. 

“Higher interest rates and a credit squeeze are having a significant and negative impact on Rural Mainstreet businesses,” according to Ernie Goss, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business. “Approximately 13.3% of bank CEOs indicated that their local economy was already in a recession while another 43.3% expect a recession in early 2024.”

When asked to name the greatest 2024 economic threat for community banks, approximately four of 10 identified a downturn in farm income as the chief hazard.

Even though the RMI confidence index climbed to 43.3 from November’s record low 21.2, higher interest rates, deposit outflows and a slowing farm economy over the past several months continued to constrain business confidence.

The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index covering 10 regional states dependent on agriculture and/or energy. It focuses on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300.

Cattle futures faded early pressure Tuesday to close higher amid light holiday trade. Support included last week’s higher cash fed cattle prices and the weekend’s harsh weather in parts of cattle feeding country. Stronger outside markets helped, as did the fact that traders had apparently already factored in last week’s Cattle on Feed Report, which showed more placements than analyst expectations ahead of the report.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.34 higher (17¢ to $2.20 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.11 higher (52¢ to $1.87 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Texas Panhandle at $171/cwt., steady to $1 higher in Kansas at $171, $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $171-$172 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $170. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $270 and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $270.

Last week’s five-area direct weighted average FOB live steer price was $1.80 higher at $170.51/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $2.85 higher at $270.38.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 38¢ higher Tuesday afternoon at $293.31/cwt. Select was 4¢ higher at $261.19/cwt.

Grain futures closed higher Tuesday, helped along by competitive pricing in the global market, as well as the recently weaker U.S. dollar.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 18¢ to 21¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 7¢ to 13¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday with follow-through support from last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 159 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 20 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 81 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.78 to $2.01 higher through the front six contracts.

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Although Friday’s Cattle on Feed report revealed the Dec. 1 feedlot inventory was 2.7% more than a year earlier, total feedlot placements from June through November were 0.3% less than the same period last year, according to Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“This means that the larger feedlot inventory now is due to a slower feedlot turnover rate and not because of increased total feedlot production,” Peel says in his weekly market comments. “This is reflected in November feedlot marketings that were down 7.4% year over year. A slower feedlot marketing rate raises concerns that feedlots may not be staying current in marketings.”

Peel also points out weekly average steer carcass weights were record large over the past month at 940 pounds. However, he says, “Indications are that the heavier carcass weights reflect deliberate marketing intentions (feeding cattle longer) rather than a systemic lack of currentness in feedlots.”

Cattle futures were mixed on Friday, ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below) and amid light holiday trade.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.39 higher (97¢ to $2.07 higher). Week to week on Friday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.91 higher ($1.85 higher at the front to $5.45 higher at the back). That’s an average of $10.59 higher over the past two weeks.

Live Cattle futures closed narrowly mixed, from an average of 23¢ lower in the front three contracts to an average of 18¢ higher. Week to week on Friday, they closed an average of 56¢ higher (7¢ to $1.83 higher), except for an average of 78¢ lower in near Feb and Apr. 

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was slow on light to moderate demand in all regions through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $1 higher in the Southern Plains at $171/cwt., $3-$4 higher in Nebraska at $171-$172 and $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $170. Dressed delivered prices were $2-$3 higher in Nebraska at $270 and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.80 higher Friday afternoon at $292.93/cwt. Select was 12¢ lower at $261.15/cwt.

Turning to row crops, the U.S. reopened key rail bridges connecting the nation and Mexico, which should support grain futures next week.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally higher to 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally higher, except for 1¢ to 3¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Soybean futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ higher through Sep ’25 and then mostly 7¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed little changed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 18 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 8 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 29 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 33¢ to 46¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Depending on what the markets factored in ahead of time, Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report could be viewed as bearish with more placements than expected once again.

For feedlots with 1,000 head or more capacity, November placements of 1.9 million head were 1.9% less than a year earlier (-37,000 head), but that was 2.2% more than estimates ahead of the report.

In terms of placement weights, 53% went on feed weighing 699 lbs. or less, 35% weighing 700-899 lbs. and 12% weighing 900 lbs. or more.

Marketings in November of 1.8 million head were 7.4% less year over year (140,000 head), compared to pre-report estimates of 6.7% less.

Cattle on feed Dec. 1 of 12.0 million head were 2.7% more than last year (+313,000 head), which was 0.5% more than expectations ahead of the report.

Cattle futures closed mostly lower amid light trade Thursday, perhaps also pressured by positioning ahead of Friday’s Cattle on Feed report that will come out after tomorrow’s close.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.83 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.36 lower (90¢ to $1.65 lower), except for 52¢ higher in spot Dec.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on moderate demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $1-$3 higher in the western Corn Belt at $170/cwt. Dressed, delivered prices of $270 are $2-$3 higher in Nebraska and $3 higher in the western Corn Belt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $170/cwt. in the Southern Plains and $168 in Nebraska.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.00 higher Thursday afternoon at $291.13/cwt. Select was 33¢ lower at $261.27/cwt.

Net 2023 U.S. beef export sales of 9,700 metric tons (mt) for the week ending Dec. 14 were 8% less than the previous week, but 44% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly Export Sales report. Increases primarily were for South Korea, Japan, Mexico, Canada and China.

Net U.S. beef export sales of 6,400 mt for 2024 were primarily for Japan, Mexico, China, Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Turning to row crops, this week’s U.S. closure of key rail bridges connecting the nation and Mexico — hampering transport of goods and commodities — continued to cap and pressure to grain futures.

Corn futures closed 2¢ higher through Jly ’25 and then unchanged to fractionally higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 1¢ to 3¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 8¢ to 14¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices rebounded Thursday with investors apparently retrenching following the previous day’s profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 322 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 48 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 185 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 33¢ to 57¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Annual domestic U.S. commercial beef production through November of 24.8 billion pounds was 1.3 billion pounds less (-5.0%) than the same time a year earlier, according to USDA’s monthly Livestock Slaughter report. Total commercial cattle slaughter through November of 30.2 million head was 1.4 million less (-4.4%).

Total commercial red meat production for the same period of 49.9 billion pounds was 1.1 billion pounds less (-2.2%). Pork production was 1% more year over year. In addition to the 5% decline in beef production, veal production was down 11%, and lamb and mutton production was down 1%.

Cattle futures gained strength late in yesterday’s session, albeit amid light pre-holiday trade. Support included chatter that beef packers appear to be short-bought and may have to advance cash prices this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.40 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 98¢ higher (45¢ to $1.57 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales at $170/cwt. in the western Corn Belt, and a few dressed delivered sales in Nebraska at $270.

Last week, FOB live prices were $170/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $168 in Nebraska and $167-$169 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $267-$268 in Nebraska and $267 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 30¢ higher Wednesday afternoon at $289.13/cwt. Select was $1.56 lower at $261.60/cwt.

Corn futures closed 1¢ to 3¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then mostly fractionally lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 9¢ to 16¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed lower Wednesday on likely profit taking.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 475 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 70 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 225 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed little changed through the front six contracts.

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Although there is no clear bottoming pattern in Cattle futures, from a technical standpoint, Stephen Koontz, agricultural economist at Colorado State University notes the downtrend appears to be weakening.

“Cash prices for fed and feeder cattle did not have the same strength during the up move as futures did and are weakening but also not with the same strength as futures,” Koontz explains in the most recent issue of In the Cattle Markets from the Livestock Marketing Information Center. “Regardless, 2023 is finishing up the year offering a case study of proper risk management practices and perspective. Before mid-September, there was nothing but optimism and higher – record high – prices. And after mid-September, it was the opposite during the sharp decline. Producers that purchased LRP or hedged in the third quarter of this year will realize some of those excellent returns.”

On the other end of the supply chain, Koontz explains consumer beef demand remains relatively strong but moderated in 2023. He adds that further moderation in 2024 will impact beef prices.

“The demand side will likely have important interactions with changes in supplies as cattle producers consider and eventually commit to herd building,” Koontz says.

Cattle futures eased lower Tuesday, awaiting cash direction and with some potential positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly Cattle on Feed report. Depending on whose numbers you follow, estimates are for November placements to be about 4% less year over year with November marketings down about 7% and the Dec. 1 on-feed inventory about 2% higher.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 62¢ lower (20¢ to $1.27 lower), except for 65¢ higher in the back contract.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 33¢ lower (2¢ to 85¢ lower) except for unchanged in away Feb.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live sales were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt., $1-$3 lower in Nebraska at $168 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $167-$169. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $267-$268 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $267.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 82¢ lower Tuesday afternoon at $288.83/cwt. Select was 56¢ lower at $263.16/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 6¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 10¢ to 13¢ higher on short covering and chatter about more exports to China.

Soybean futures closed mostly 12¢ to 17¢ lower, as traders removed some South American weather premium.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Tuesday with the most support from tech stocks, further supported by the Federal Reserve’s dovish interest rate outlook.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 251 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 27 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 98 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 97¢ to $1.12 higher through the front six contracts.

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If cash calf and feeder cattle prices this week can maintain last week’s stronger momentum, then it could set the stage for higher prices next month, according to Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly comments. He believes cash prices will be a more telling indicator over the next two holiday weeks, as the cash market has not consistently followed Feeder Cattle futures this year.

“Given the rapid decline in Feeder Cattle futures since the middle of September, the market is ready for a correction of some sort on the futures market side,” Griffith says. “Prices may not challenge previous contract highs for a while, but the market will offer producers an opportunity to hedge cattle for summer and fall of 2024 moving through the next several months.”

Moreover, Griffith suggests keeping an eye on the market for breeding females.

“The thought here is that bred female prices will escalate in the spring if forage production gets off to a good start and will continue to increase if forage production persists through summer,” Griffith says.

Cattle futures rallied higher Monday with follow-through support, including renewed buying interest, especially in Feeder Cattle, and firming cash fed cattle prices at the end of last week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.40 higher ($1.97 to $2.85 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 68¢ higher (27¢ to 97¢ higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live sales were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt., $1-$3 lower in Nebraska at $168 and $1-$2 lower in the western Corn Belt at $167-$169. Dressed delivered prices were steady to $4 lower in Nebraska at $267-$268 and $1-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $267.

Last week’s weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price was $1.23 lower at $168.71/cwt. The weighted average steer price in the beef was $2.10 lower at $267.53.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.71 lower Monday afternoon at $288.93/cwt. Select was $2.90 higher at $263.72/cwt.

Corn futures closed 3¢ to 6¢ lower through Jly ’25 and then 1¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 13¢ to 15¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed mostly 5¢ to 8¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices edged higher Monday with the most support from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 90 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.02 to $1.05 higher through the front six contracts.

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With the apparent beef cow culling rate this year of 12.1%, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University says the herd likely contracted 2.0-2.5% in 2023. If so, he explains in his weekly market comments that the cow inventory at the beginning of 2024 would be about 28.2 million head, the fewest since 1961.

“The level of heifer slaughter in 2023, down just 2.8% year over year, doesn’t indicate a likelihood of many ‘extra’ heifers bred in 2023,” Peel says. “The pool of bred beef heifers is likely to remain low going into 2024, keeping the prospects of beef cow herd growth minimal in the coming year.”

You can hear more of Peel’s insights here.

Cattle futures continued higher Friday, supported by friendlier outside markets and oversold conditions.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.24 higher ($1.55 to $2.57 higher). They were an average of $6.68 higher week to week ($4.95 to $7.98 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.12 (72¢ to $1.42 higher). They were an average of $3.71 higher week to week on Friday ($2.77 to $4.27 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to slow on moderate demand through Friday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Although too few to trend, there were some FOB live sales in the Southern Plains at $170/cwt. and in the western Corn Belt at $167-$168 where early dressed delivered prices were $267.

The only established trade for last week was in Nebraska with FOB live prices $1-$3 lower at $168/cwt. and dressed delivered prices steady to $4 lower at $267-$268.

The previous week, FOB live prices were $171 in the Southern Plains and $168-$171 in the western Corn Belt where dressed delivered prices were $268-$270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ lower Friday afternoon at $291.64/cwt. Select was $2.56 higher at $260.82/cwt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 649,000 head was 14,000 head more than the previous week and 27,000 head more than the same week last year. Estimated total year-to-date cattle slaughter of 31.1 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-4.5%) than the same period last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 25.6 billion pounds was 1.3 billion pounds less (-5.0%).

Grain futures closed higher on likely short covering.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Friday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 56 points higher. The S&P 500 closed fractionally lower. The NASDAQ was up 52 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 12¢ to 16¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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 “The proportion of heifers reported in weekly federally inspected slaughter data and in weekly sales data for feeder and stocker cattle remain quite strong, particularly given historically high nominal price levels recorded this year,” say analysts with USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS), in the recent monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook. “Possible impediments to cow/calf producers retaining heifers in their herds may be a lack of forage and continued relatively high operating expenses.”

For perspective, when accounting for inflation, ERS analysts note the average price for 750-800 lb. feeder steers at Oklahoma City this year are 16% less than the record levels of 2014-15.

Several factors are likely contributing to lower reported feeder calf prices,” ERS analysts say. “Wholesale beef prices have been trending lower since the shorter-than-expected seasonal uptick in late October. This has encouraged packers to try to minimize the prices paid for fed cattle by managing throughput. This is likely putting a squeeze on feedlot returns for calves purchased at higher levels in the summer, and coupled with declining futures prices for fed cattle, may be affecting feedlots’ willingness to pay higher prices for feeders. Further, less heifer retention is probably helping support supplies available for placement.”

Cattle futures, especially Feeder Cattle bounced back Thursday with positive weekly export sales and supported by a rally in Lean Hog futures.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.09 higher ($1.07 to $2.52 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 65¢ higher.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

The only established trade so far this week is in Nebraska, albeit on a light test. FOB live prices are $1-$3 lower at $168/cwt. and dressed delivered prices are steady to $4 lower at $267-$268.

Last week, FOB live prices were $171 in the Southern Plains and $168-$171 in the western Corn Belt where dressed delivered prices were $268-$270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 68¢ higher at $292.32/cwt. Select was 95¢ lower at $258.26/cwt.

Net U.S. beef export sales for 2023 were 10,600 metric tons (mt) the week ending Dec. 7. Sales were noticeably higher than the previous week and 67% more than the prior four-week average, according to USDA’s weekly Export Sales report.

Increases were primarily for South Korea, Japan, Mexico, China and Canada. Net sales for 2024 were primarily for Japan, South Korea, Canada, Mexico and Chile.

Grain and Soybean futures closed little changed to higher, bolstered by weekly export sales.

Corn futures closed unchanged to fractionally mixed.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 4¢ to 7¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices rose Thursday with follow-through support and lower Treasury yields.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 158 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 12 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 27 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.11 to $2.23 higher through the front six contracts.

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 Compared to the previous month’s projections, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) sliced anticipated feeder steer prices (750-800 lbs., Oklahoma City) in the latest monthly Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook (LDPO).

“Estimated steer and heifer slaughter was slower than expected in November and early December, suggesting a slower pace of marketings for the month and lowering expectations for the quarter,” ERS analysts say. “On the other hand, placements of cattle were above a year ago for the month of October, and November weekly sales data, as well as weekly import data for feeder cattle, suggest November placements could also be relatively strong.” They note less heifer retention is likely supporting heavier placements.

ERS reduced the expected fourth-quarter price for this year by $10 to $230/cwt. and the annual average price by $2.50 to $218.61. For next year, projected prices were forecast $15 lower in the first quarter at $225, $12 lower in the second at $235 and $10 lower in the third at $250. The 2024 annual average price was reduced $10.50 to $241.75.