Daily Market Highlights

Cattle futures softened Wednesday, amid likely positioning and pressured by the commodity-wide weakness tied to Argentina’s currency devaluation.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.46 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 89¢ lower (47¢ to $1.45 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Wednesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live were $171/cwt. in the Southern Plains, $169-$171 in Nebraska and $168-$171 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $267-$272 in Nebraska and $268-$270 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.14 lower Wednesday afternoon at $291.64/cwt. Select was 55¢ higher at $259.21/cwt.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 16¢ to 24¢ lower through Jly ’25.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 5¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ lower through Sep ’24, and then 4¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices charged ahead Wednesday, fueled by comments from the Federal Reserve that it may begin cutting interest rates next year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 512 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 63 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 200 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 86¢ to 99¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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All else being equal, cattle prices should remain strong through 2026, says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. That’s based on supply fundamentals.

“Cow slaughter and heifer slaughter have continued at a rapid pace, which means the beef cow herd and heifers held for beef cow replacement are going to be extremely low to begin 2024 compared to 2023,” Griffith says.

USDA will issue Jan. 1 cattle numbers January 31.

Cattle futures closed higher for the third consecutive trading session, helped along by a couple of days of higher Choice boxed beef cutout value and chatter about steady cash fed cattle trade this week.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.40 higher.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.18 higher (70¢ to $1.50 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from mostly inactive on light demand to a standstill through Tuesday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live were $171/cwt. in the Southern Plains at $171/cwt., $169-$171 in Nebraska and $168-$171 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices were $267-$272 in Nebraska and $268-$270 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.35 higher Tuesday afternoon at $292.78/cwt. Select was 88¢ lower at $258.66/cwt.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 20¢ to 24¢ higher on likely short covering.

Corn futures closed fractionally higher to 3¢ higher through Jly ’25.

Soybean futures closed 6¢ to 12¢ lower, likely pressured by profit taking.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Tuesday, with further evidence of cooling inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 173 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 21 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 100 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $2.43 to $2.71 lower through the front six contracts.

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 Approximately 84% of all U.S. farm and ranch households earn the majority of

their total household income from off-farm sources, often using off-farm income to cover a portion of the operation’s expenses, according to the recently published 2023 edition of America’s Farms and Ranches at a Glance from USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS).

Among highlights, based on 2022…

• 97% of U.S. farms were family farms, accounting for 90% of farm production.
• Small family farms (gross cash farm income — GCFI — less than $350,000) made up 88% percent of the farm count, operated 46% of the farmland and generated 19% of the total value of production.
• Large-scale family farms (GCFI of $1 million or more) accounted for 7.1% of operations, 25% of the farmland and 52% of the total value of production.
• 26% of the value of beef production occurred on small family farms; 50% on large-scale operations.
• Small family farms produced 53% of hay.

Cattle futures closed higher for the second consecutive trading session with apparently more confidence the bottom might be established.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.74 higher ($1.30 to $2.20 higher).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.40 higher ($1.20 to $2.80 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 lower in the Southern Plains at $171/cwt., $4-$5 lower in Nebraska at $169 to $171 and $4-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $168-$171. Dressed delivered prices were $3-$8 lower in Nebraska at $267-$272 and $5-$6 lower in the western Corn Belt at $268 to $270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.42 higher Monday afternoon at $290.43/cwt. Select was $1.64 higher at $259.54/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 5¢ lower through Sep ’24 and then mostly 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 26¢ to 29¢ lower on likely profit taking.

Soybean futures closed 23¢ to 32¢ higher through Aug ’24 and then mostly 14¢ to 15¢ higher, supported by a drier forecast in South America.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Monday, with follow-through support from recent indicators of cooling inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 157 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 28 points.

CME WTI Crude Oil futures closed 9¢ to 34¢ higher through the front six contracts.

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 National beef cow slaughter so far this year is 11% less year over year but remains above the five-year average (2017-21), according to Josh Maples, Extension livestock economist at Mississippi State University. He notes wide variation among regions, in the latest Cattle Market Notes Weekly.

For instance, year-to-date beef cow slaughter in Region 4 — representing most Southeastern states — is 3% less that the same period last year but is 2% higher since Sept. 1, according to Maples. In Region 6 (AR, LA, NM, OK and TX) he says year-to-date beef cow slaughter is 17% less year over year but 11% less since Sept. 1.

“The data suggests that cow culling in the South has not decreased by as much as it has in other parts of the country,” Maples says. “Drought is likely the key culprit for this difference, especially for the higher culling totals the past few months. Cull cow prices have been above 2022 levels for most of the year – driven in part by tighter supplies of cull cows. Cull prices have increased in recent weeks despite this being a time of year when prices would seasonally decrease. Dry conditions, high input costs, and strong cull cow prices are a few factors contributing to relatively high culling levels in the Southern U.S. in 2023.”

Cattle futures rallied Friday with the oversold conditions, apparently expected data in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (see below) and chatter that the bottom might finally be etched.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.65 higher ($4.15 to $5.07 higher).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.56 higher ($1.97 to $3.35 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from limited on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $3-$4 lower in the Southern Plains at $171/cwt., mostly $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at mainly $171 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $169-$171. Dressed delivered prices were $4-$8 lower in Nebraska at $267-$271 and $4-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.83 lower Friday afternoon at $288.01/cwt. Select was 93¢ lower at $257.90/cwt. Week to week, Choice was down $9.45 and Select was down $7.59.

Grain and soybean futures closed lower on likely profit taking.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 2¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower, except for 3¢ to 6¢ lower in the front three contracts.

Soybean futures closed 3¢ to 7¢ lower through Sep ’25 and then mostly 1¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday, supported by consumer expectations for easing inflation, as well as a national employment report that underscored the economy’s resilience.

Total non-farm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November, more than the trade expected, and the nation’s unemployment rate edged lower to 3.7%, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 130 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 18 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 63 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.55 to $1.89 higher through the front six contracts.

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 USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) reduced the expected five-area direct fed steer price for the remainder of this year and next, in the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Based on increased expected feedlot placements in late 2023 that will be marketed next year and current prices, compared to the previous month, ERS reduced the expected fourth quarter price this year by $7 to $178/cwt. The projected annual price was $1.75 lower at $175.55. For next year, prices were sliced by $10 in the first quarter to $175, $9 in the second quarter to $184 and $5 in the third quarter to $177. The forecast annual average price for 2024 was reduced $7 to $178.

Cattle futures found support early in Thursday’s session but ended lower with pressure from cash fed cattle prices and wholesale beef values. Export news was also negative with net 2023 sales of 200 metric tons for the week ending Nov. 30. That was a marketing year low, down 98% from the previous week and down 98% from the prior four-week average.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.75 lower (57¢ to $2.50 lower), except for 12¢ higher in spot Jan.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of 93¢ lower (62¢ to $1.35 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Thursday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3-$4 lower in the Southern Plains at $171/cwt., mostly $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at mainly $171 and $4 lower in the western Corn Belt at $169-$171. Dressed delivered prices are $4-$8 lower in Nebraska at $267-$271 and $4-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at mostly $270.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was 72¢ lower Thursday afternoon at $289.84/cwt. Select was $1.07 lower at $258.83/cwt.

Grain and soybean futures closed higher with a mix of export news and likely some positioning ahead of Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed mostly 3¢ to 11¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 16¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Thursday, led by tech stocks.

Dow 62 points higher. S&P 500 36 points higher and NASDAQ up 193 points.

WTI Crude oil futures on the CME closed 4¢ to 14¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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 Although stronger than the previous month, U.S. beef exports continued lower year over year in October, according to data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF).

Beef exports totaled 104,446 metric tons (mt) in October, down 17% from a year ago but 6% more the low volume posted in September. Export value was $836 million, down 11% year-over-year but 5% higher than September. Beef export value equated to $389.90 per head of fed slaughter in October, down 9% from a year ago.

“Economic headwinds in our largest Asian markets continue to weigh on demand, as consumers trade down to lower-priced proteins,” says Dan Halstrom, USMEF President and CEO. “The recovery in Asia’s foodservice sector has been limited, but we remain hopeful that it will accelerate in 2024. Recent efforts to jump-start economic activity in these countries and address weakened currencies could also improve the business climate.”

However, October exports posted significant year-over-year increases in Mexico, Central America, Taiwan, Europe and Africa, but continued to trend lower to Japan, South Korea and China.

January-October exports of U.S. beef reached 1.08 million mt, down 13% from the record pace of 2022, while value fell 17% to $8.32 billion. During the same period, beef export value equated to $395.40 per head of fed slaughter down 14%.

On the pork side of the fence, for the first 10 months of 2023, U.S. exports increased 9% year over year to 2.38 million mt, value was up 6% to $6.66 billion.

The previous session’s soft rally proved to be another false start as Cattle futures unraveled Wednesday with pressure from eroding Choice wholesale beef values and declining negotiated cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.36 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.79 lower ($3.07 to $5.42 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from moderate on moderate demand in Kansas to slow on light demand in all other regions, through Wednesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

So far this week, FOB live prices are $3-$4 lower in the Southern Plains at $171/cwt. Dressed delivered prices are $4 lower in Nebraska at $271.

Last week, dressed delivered prices were $174-$175 in Nebraska and $173-$175 in the western Corn Belt. Dressed delivered prices in the western Corn Belt were $274-$275.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $3.19 lower Wednesday afternoon at $290.56/cwt. Select was 77¢ higher at $259.90/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly 3¢ to 6¢ lower.

Kansas City Wheat futures closed 6¢ to 9¢ lower.

Soybean futures closed 10¢ to 14¢ lower through Aug ’25 and then 6¢ to 7¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices declined Wednesday, fading early support forged by another indication of cooling inflation.

Private sector employment increased by 103,000 jobs in November and annual pay was up 5.6% year-over-year, according to the November ADP^® National Employment Report^™. Job-stayers saw a 5.6% pay increase in November, the slowest pace of gains since September 2021. Job-changers, too, saw slowing pay growth, posting pay gains of 8.3%, the smallest year-over-year increase since June 2021. The premium for switching jobs is at its smallest in three years of data.

“Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery,” says Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist. “But that boost is behind us, and   return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.”

Dow 70 points lower. S&P 500 17 points lower and NASDAQ down 83 points.

WTI Crude oil futures on the CME closed $2.50 to $2.94 lower through the front six contracts.

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 Global economic growth is set to remain modest, with the impact of the necessary monetary policy tightening, weak trade and lower business and consumer confidence being increasingly felt, according to the latest Economic Outlook from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD).

The Outlook projects global GDP growth at 2.9% this year, 2.7% next year and 3.0% in 2025. Asia is expected to continue to account for the bulk of global growth in 2024-25, as it has in 2023.

“The global economy continues to confront the challenges of both low growth and elevated inflation, with a mild slowdown next year, mainly as a result of the necessary monetary policy tightening over the past two years. Inflation has declined from last year’s peaks. We expect that inflation will be back at central bank targets by 2025 in most economies,” explains OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann. “Over the longer term, our projections show a significant rise in government debt, in part as a result of a further slowdown in growth…”

The OECD projects GDP growth in the United States at 2.4% this year, 1.5% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025 as monetary policy is expected to ease.

In the euro area, which had been relatively hard hit by Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the energy price shock, GDP growth is projected at 0.6% in 2023, before rising to 0.9% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, according to the OECD Outlook. China is expected to grow at a 5.2% rate this year, before growth drops to 4.7% in 2024 and 4.2% in 2025 on the back of ongoing stresses in the real estate sector and continued high household saving rates.

Cattle future closed higher Tuesday with renewed buying interest on oversold conditions and the hopes of some that a bottom was carved with the recent aggressive selling.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.59 higher ($2.77 at the back to $4.17 higher in spot Jan).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.34 higher (90¢ to $1.90 higher).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was mostly inactive on light demand in all regions through Tuesday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

A day earlier, FOB live prices in Kansas were $3-$4 lower at mostly $171/cwt.

Last week, FOB live prices were $175 in the Texas Panhandle, $174-$175 in Nebraska and $173-$175 in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices last week were mostly $275 in Nebraska and $274-$275 in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.24 lower Tuesday afternoon at $293.75/cwt. Select was $3.70 lower at $259.13/cwt.

Corn futures closed 4¢ to 8¢ higher through Jly ’24 and then mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed 1¢ to 5¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly fractionally higher through Aug ’25 and then mostly 2¢ to 3¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed narrowly mixed Tuesday with the most support coming from tech stocks.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 79 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 2 points lower. The NASDAQ was up 44 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 72¢ to 92¢ lower through the front six contracts.

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Agricultural producer sentiment increased for the second consecutive month in November, according to the latest Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer. The overall index rose 5 points to a reading of 115, up 12% from a year earlier. Increased optimism was mostly attributed to farmers’ improved perceptions of their farms’ financial conditions and prospects.

“Farmers’ expectations regarding financial performance have improved, with fewer producers’ expecting worse performance than a year ago,” says James Mintert, the barometer’s principal investigator and director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

The Index of Current Conditions rose 12 points to 113 while the Index of Future Expectations improved by 2 points to 116.

Top concerns for the upcoming year include higher input costs (32%), rising interest rates (26%) and lower crop and/or livestock prices (20%). Notably, there has been a shift in concern throughout the year, with fewer producers expressing worry over higher input costs compared to the beginning of the year. Instead, more producers are now concerned about rising interest rates and lower crop and livestock prices.

This month’s Ag Economy Barometer survey was conducted from November 13-17, 2023.

Cattle futures continued lower Monday with follow-through pressure from lower cash fed cattle prices and eroding boxed beef cutout values.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.78 lower.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.65 lower ($1.27 to $2.05 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was at a standstill in all regions through Monday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

Last week, FOB live prices were $2-$3 lower in the Southern Plains at $174-$175/cwt., $1-$2 lower in Nebraska at $174-$175 and $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $173-$175.

Dressed delivered prices were mostly $5 lower in Nebraska at $275 and $4-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt at $274-$275.

The weighted average five-area direct FOB live steer price last week was $2.32 lower at $174.45/cwt. The weighted average dressed delivered steer price was $4.14 lower at $274.59.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.47 lower Monday afternoon at $294.99/cwt. Select was $2.66 lower at $262.83/cwt.

Corn futures closed mostly fractionally lower to 1¢ lower.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 7¢ to 11¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 11¢ to 19¢ lower through Sep ’24 and then 6¢ to 9¢ lower.

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Major U.S. financial indices softened Monday with investors apparently waiting for firmer direction.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 41 points lower. The S&P 500 closed 24 points lower. The NASDAQ was down 119 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed 28¢ to $1.03 lower through the front six contracts.

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Calf and feeder cattle prices were a mixed bag last week. Steers and heifers sold steady to $10/cwt. higher in the North Central and Southeast, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service. The exception was $6 lower in the Southeast for steers weighing 600 lbs. In the South Central Region, steers sold $6-$17 lower and heifers traded $17-$19 lower.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $7.11 lower week to week on Friday at $223.27.

“A volatile futures market has caused some confusion between buyers and sellers in the auction barns,” says AMS analysts. They note the spot contract for Live Cattle declined $6.50 in the past two weeks while spot Feeder Cattle plunged $15.

“Calf and feeder cattle prices are reeling in the current environment,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The futures market has been in an utter freefall for two and a half months, and market participants do not know what to do, given the expectations for cattle in the future based on the futures market. Thus, feedlots are bidding less for cattle ready to be placed on feed, which means everyone down the line has to bid lower for lighter-weight cattle.”

Griffith adds that prices declining faster than they rose is reminiscent of the dramatic upsurge and plunge witnessed in 2014-16, when cattle numbers were similarly sparse.

“The primary difference is that cattle producers have not started retaining heifers and growing the beef cattle herd,” Griffith explains. “This means there has been no work on the pipeline to supply feeder cattle in the coming years. Thus, the market has likely overreacted to pushing prices too low just as the market pushed prices too high earlier this year.”

Lower cash fed cattle prices helped pressure Cattle futures on Friday.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $5.21 lower ($4.75 to $5.60 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.10 lower ($1.55 to $2.80 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to a standstill through Friday afternoon, with too few transactions to trend, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service.

For the week, FOB live prices were $174-$175/cwt. in all regions which was $2-$3 lower in the Southern Plains, $1-$2 lower in Nebraska and steady to $4 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices were $275, which was $5 lower in Nebraska and $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Estimated total cattle slaughter last week of 635,000 head was 97,000 head more than the previous holiday-shortened week but 25,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Estimated year-to-date cattle slaughter of 29.8 million head was 1.5 million head fewer (-4.7%) than the same time last year. Estimated year-to-date beef production of 24.5 billion pounds was 1.4 billion pounds less (-5.3%).

Grain futures edged higher Friday with likely short covering.

Corn futures closed mostly 1¢ to 2¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 2¢ to 4¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed mostly 10¢ to 17¢ lower through Aug ’24 , as traders took back some of the weather premium, given the wetter outlook in Brazil.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed higher Friday on declining Treasury yields and continued investor optimism that the Fed is done raising interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 294 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 26 points higher. The NASDAQ was up 78 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.43 to $1.89 lower through the front six contracts.

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Livestock, poultry, and dairy exports for Fiscal Year (FY) 2024 were forecast $1.3 billion lower to $36.3 billion, compared to the previous quarterly report, according to USDA’s latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade.

Beef exports were projected $300 million lower to $8.2 billion based on reduced supplies as herd contraction lowers domestic production.

Total U.S. agricultural exports in FY 2024 were projected at $169.5 billion, down $2.5 billion from the August forecast. The revision was primarily driven by reductions in grain and feed, as well as livestock, poultry, and dairy exports.

On the other side of the balance sheet, FY 2024 livestock, poultry, and dairy imports were forecast $500 million higher than the August Outlook to $27.0 billion as increased beef, pork, and dairy imports far exceed lower poultry imports. Beef imports were forecast $400 million higher to $8.9 billion as tight domestic supplies are expected to encourage increased imports.

For context, global real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was forecast to slow from 3.5% in calendar year (CY) 2022 to 3.0% percent in CY 2023 and 2.9% in CY 2024.

“The global and domestic economies continue to grow and recover from escalations in the cost of living. However, economic growth is hindered by wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, slower economic growth projections for China, and tight monetary policies,” according to analysts with USDA’s Economic research Service and Foreign Agricultural Service. “Despite these challenges, economic growth continues for many countries, though gains have been uneven.”

Domestically, analysts note the U.S. economy continues to outperform forecasts, lowering concerns about recession.

“Forecast growth for the United States’ real GDP in CY 2023 is 2.1%. CY 2024 growth is forecast at 1.5%, up from the previous 1.0% forecast,” analysts say. “This adjustment is supported by resilient consumer spending and a strong labor market. Inflation continues above targets set by the U.S. Federal Reserve.”

Cattle futures closed lower Thursday, retracing some of the gains from the previous two sessions amid light trade, declining open interest, likely month-end position squaring, lower cash fed cattle prices.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.74 lower ($1.20 to $2.25 lower).

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.27 lower (95¢ to $1.65 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade ranged from slow on light demand to moderate on moderate demand through Thursday afternoon, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service

So far this week, FOB live prices are $174-$175/cwt. in all regions which is $2-$3 lower in the Southern Plains, $1-$2 lower in Nebraska and steady to $4 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Dressed delivered prices are $275, which is $5 lower in Nebraska and $3-$5 lower in the western Corn Belt.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.99 higher Thursday afternoon at $299.02/cwt. Select was 66¢ higher at $264.75/cwt.

Grain futures closed higher Thursday, supported by positive export sales. Net weekly U.S. 2023-24 Corn export sales were a marketing year high, 35% more than the previous week and up 54% from the prior four-week average.

Corn futures closed mostly 2¢ to 6¢ higher.

KC HRW Wheat futures closed mostly 6¢ to 8¢ higher.

Soybean futures closed 2¢ to 4¢ lower through Aug ’24 and then 1¢ higher.

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Major U.S. financial indices closed mainly higher Thursday as investor confidence seemed to grow concerning inflation.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 520 points higher. The S&P 500 closed 17 points higher. The NASDAQ was down 32 points.

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil futures (CME) closed $1.90 to $2.01 lower through the front six contracts.

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Higher animal protein production costs and tighter supplies will push animal protein prices higher and constrain global consumption in 2024, according to Rabobank’s annual Global Animal Protein Outlook report.

Input costs and inflation are likely to decline, but will remain higher than pre-pandemic levels, according to the report. As well, structural changes will challenge supply chains. For instance, Rabobank analysts say demographic shifts will tighten the labor market, increasing production costs, while less population growth will slow consumption.

“Not all structural changes in the market are detrimental – many present new opportunities for businesses to improve their processes and products,” explains Justin Sherrard, Rabobank global strategist for animal protein. “Those companies that can demonstrate agility in adapting to the new environment and navigate consumer willingness to pay for certain preferences will be able to take advantage of the tighter market and come out on top.”

Closer to home, Rabobank expects U.S. beef production to be 4.5% less in 2024, compared to this year, as beef cow liquidation continues, and herd rebuilding remains on hold. This will challenge the margins of existing and developing beef packing capacity.