Weekly Market Highlights

Markets continued sideways to stronger amid strong packer demand for fed cattle and heavy auction receipts for calves and feeders.

Nationwide, steers and heifers traded from $2/cwt. lower to $2 higher according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). It was the first week in about a year that regional calf and feeder prices were mostly lower year over year, based on data from the National Weekly Feeder and Stocker Cattle Summary.

“Feeder cattle buyers have purchased replacement feedlot cattle on either side of steady this week as the market is looking for direction from any type of news that could hit the airwaves,” AMS analysts say. They add that the week’s auction volume at just over 250,000 head was the second most since early February.

Other than 7¢ to 50¢ higher in Jan-Mar, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.52 lower week to week on Friday.

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was $2 higher in the Southern Plains at $126/cwt. on Thursday. Elsewhere, prices trended generally steady to either side of even.

AMS analysts note that weekly negotiated cash trading volume in Kansas topped 30,000 head for the second week in a row, the first time since January 2016. They add that the rolling three-week average of negotiated trading volume in TX/OK/NM surpassed 10,000 head for only the second time in a year.

Other than 35¢ and 72¢ higher in away Jun and Aug, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 75¢ lower week to week on Friday (2¢ lower to $1.15 lower).

“The negative $20 basis on June Live Cattle continued this week. Futures traders continue to be very bearish on the market with expectations of live cattle collapsing in the next few weeks. This expectation is led by an increase in cattle coming off feed in the next couple of months,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist with the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “As a cattle feeder, this could be cause for concern as a $20/cwt. price decline could be devastating. However, it may offer the opportunity to price as many cattle out in the future today for a small discount and then take advantage of a possible arbitrage situation in the futures market. It is not likely June futures will be below its current price at expiration, as convergence will come from a declining cash price and an increasing futures price.”

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.56 higher week to week on Friday at $228.30/cwt. Select was $5.17 higher at $209.49.

“Choice boxes are trading at their highest price level in over 10 months but are still about $6 lower than the same week one year ago,” Griffith says. “The price surge the past few weeks for Choice beef is being led by the loin and rib primal as retailers and food service participants are seeking middle meats to meet consumer demand. The rib primal price has increased a little over $30/cwt. in the past two weeks while the loin primal price has increased about $40. This is a very seasonal price movement as retailers are making purchases to fulfill the summer holiday demand which kicks off with Memorial Day weekend.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Markets firmed, helped along by significantly higher wholesale beef values and the gap in harvest-ready supplies in the short term.

Calves and yearlings sold fully steady to $5/cwt. higher, with instances of $7-$10 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“The previous week’s higher fed cattle market and a neutral to slightly bullish Cattle on Feed Report caused feeder prices to come out of the gate with active bidding and good demand,” AMS analysts say. “Demand remains very good for

steer calves weighing 400-650 lbs. Most top quality 600-750 lb. steers that are long-timed weaned, with good weighing conditions and suitable for grass are in very good demand.”

Not counting newly-minted away Apr, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.30 higher week to week on Friday.

“The futures market has already priced in a seasonal price increase for feeder cattle, which may or may not come to fruition,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The basic thought is that the seasonal tendency will remain and feeder cattle prices will move higher from May through August. At this point there is very little reason to be bearish on this expectation. In actuality, one might have a tendency to be a little bullish towards this market since prices have held serve with strong cattle on feed numbers and several international trade issues.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices moved higher on Friday, after a softer feel the day before. Live sales in the Southern Plains were $2-$3 higher than the previous week at $124/cwt., on active trade and good demand. There were too few transactions to trend elsewhere, but demand was strong, suggesting higher prices in the Northern Plains and western Corn Belt, too.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.86 higher week to week on Friday (62¢ higher to $5.10 higher in spot Apr).

“The talk around cattle pens is not about how impressive live cattle prices are but how steep a discount June Live Cattle futures are relative to current cash prices,” Griffith says. “The live cattle market is experiencing a record-strong basis for the June contract. Currently, cash live cattle trade is $17/cwt. higher than where the June contract is trading.”

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $9.76 higher week to week on Friday at $221.74/cwt. Select was $4.19 higher at $204.32.

“Boxed beef cut-out values appear to have bottomed and are on the rise with

excellent movement,” AMS analysts say. “Retailers have shifted their focus to beef as cutout values rallied this week and are expected to move higher. Spring has been delayed, but we are entering a period of warmer weather. Increase in foodservice and retail demand comes with warm weather and incites consumers to venture out and dust off the grills with Mother’s Day, graduations, Father’s Day and Memorial weekend around the corner.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Stronger negotiated cash fed cattle prices and improving Cattle futures for much of the week provided support for calf and feeder cattle prices.

In the Northern Plains and Southern Plains, feeder steers and heifers sold steady to $4/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). They sold $3-$6 higher in the Southeast.

Other than $2.07 lower in spot Apr and 2¢ lower in the back contract, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of 67¢ lower week to week on Friday.

Cattle futures swooned on Thursday with apparent continued long liquidation by funds and positioning ahead of the monthly Cattle on Feed report (see below).

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices in the Southern Plains were $2-$4 on Thursday at mostly $121/cwt. in the Texas Panhandle and at $122 in Kansas.

After $2.80 higher in spot Apr and 7¢ higher in near Jun, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 47¢ lower week to week on Friday, except for narrowly mixed in the back three contracts.

One wildcard going forward is the number of calves remaining in the country to be placed, given the apparently large placements early, due to drought in the southern Plains.

Another wonderment is how much tonnage extreme winter weather conditions sucked out of the Northern Plains.

Wholesale beef values continued to linger, in wait of warmer weather and the seasonal uptick in demand. Choice boxed beef cutout value was 63¢ lower week to week on Friday at $211.98 per cwt. Select was 22¢ higher at $200.13.

Feedlot Placement Decline

Logic suggests Friday’s Cattle on Feed report should be viewed as neutral.

Placements in March of 1.92 million head were 9.26% less (196,000 head fewer) than last year. That’s for feedlots with a one-time capacity of 10,000 head or more. Estimates ahead of the report expected a decline in placements of 9-12% less. In terms of weight composition, 31.24% were placed on feeds at weights less than 699 lbs.; 55.2% weighed 700-899 lbs.; 13.53% weighed more than 900 lbs.

Marketings in March of 1.84 million head were 3.87% less (74,000 head fewer) than last year. Ahead of the report, analysts expected a decline of 4-5%.

Total cattle on feed of 11.73 million head, were 7.42% more (810,000 head more) than last year. The average expectation of analysts ahead of the report was for an increase of 7.1-7.6%. It’s the second-highest total for Apr. 1 since the series began in 1996.

The on-feed mix Apr. 1 was 64.24% steers and 35.76% heifers, with heifers representing 2.07% more of the total than last year.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Cattle markets stabilized last week, with Cattle futures finally finding some traction and fed cattle trading about steady, supporting calf and feeder cattle prices. Feeder steers and heifers sold mostly steady to $5/cwt. higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.91 higher week to week on Friday.

Except for $4.32 higher in spot Apr and 97¢ higher at the back of the board, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.74 higher week to week on Friday.

“The question will be if there is any follow through next week to keep prices pushing higher,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “If one was strictly using the futures market, it could be said that feeder cattle prices have already out-priced live cattle. However, if one considers the strong basis live cattle have been experiencing for several months, then feeder cattle prices are much more in line with expectations. The feeder cattle market will follow the live cattle market closely the next few weeks, but the summer months could bring some strength to feeder cattle.”

Increased fed cattle supplies are still looming, of course. But, there appears to be a gap in harvest-ready supplies, especially up North, due to tough and extended winter conditions. At the very least, some of the expected supply increase likely will be spaced out over a longer period of time than originally expected.

Limited fed cattle sales reported through mid Friday afternoon were generally steady with the previous week to $1 on either side of steady at mostly $117-$120/cwt.

“Analysts have been watching very closely the amount of cattle being purchased by packers the past few weeks,” AMS analysts explain. “Many producers are very diligent and staying current with their marketings as cattle in the Southern Plains have been gaining very well this winter. However, in the Northern Plains, wet pens increase the cost of gains and decrease the yield on cattle that have had to slog through mud to get to the feed bunk. Excessive winter moisture brings about the question of how long will it take all the calf-feds to get through the pipeline this year.”

Griffith points out June Live Cattle futures are trading at a $13 discount to April, with the August contract showing a similar discount.

“As has been said previously, it is hard to imagine a $13 decline on finished cattle in the next two months,” Griffith says. “Finished cattle prices are certain to come under pressure this summer, but $13 seems to be an excessive discount between April and June, given that April finished-cattle prices are generally strong.”

The long winter is also delaying the seasonal uptick in wholesale beef values.

Week to week on Friday, Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.70 lower at $212.61 per cwt. Select was $5.69 lower at $199.91.

“Grills need to be fired up in the Midwest and the Northeast to get the cutout to move up,” AMS analysts say. “With Mother’s Day, Memorial Day, Father’s Day and Independence Day on the horizon, retailers are getting ready to start their spring and early summer procurement.” 

“Despite wholesale beef prices falling, the retail price of beef remains strong,” Griffith says. “The all-fresh beef retail price for March was 559.8¢/lb., which is 6.8¢/lb. higher than February and 5.0¢/lb. higher than March 2017. It would appear the retail sector is looking to recapture some lost margins from previous months.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Stronger mid-week Cattle futures provided a boost to calf and feeder cattle prices at some auctions, but prices overall trended unevenly steady to $5/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Volume was hampered by market bearishness, as well as winter weather in the Northern and Southern Plains.

Thanks to strong gains Wednesday and Thursday, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.48 higher week to week on Friday (from the previous Thursday).

“Though calf and feeder cattle prices are not immune to broader market signals, the cash market for calves and feeder cattle has held up nicely compared to the futures market,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

With that said, increasing cattle numbers, the atypical percentage of calves placed on feed early due to drought and the recent tariff tiff between China and the U.S. add to market uncertainty.

“Feeder cattle are caught in a bottleneck of lower fed cattle prices, increasing supplies of fed cattle, sharply lower cattle futures and record supplies of competing meats,” AMS analysts say. “Until the fed cattle market finds a bottom and Live Cattle futures find support…and fund selling stops, feeder cattle prices will continue to be volatile until, in most cases, they align with profitable returns on fed cattle.” 

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices sagged $2-$3 lower on a live basis last week in the Southern Plains at $117-$118/cwt. Early in the week, prices were as much as $6 lower in Nebraska at $114; there were a few trades there on Friday at $118, but too few to trend. Dressed sales were $2-$7 lower at $184-$188.

Except for $1.52 and 25¢ lower in the front two contracts, Live Cattle futures closed an average of 80¢ higher week to week on Friday.

“June and August Live Cattle contracts spent some time under $100 this week before barreling back. At this juncture, it would seem that it would be difficult to push finished cattle prices below the $100/cwt. this summer,” Griffith says. “The summer months will drag cash prices for finished cattle lower as is normally expected, but below $100 seems like a stretch.”

In the meantime, grilling season can’t arrive soon enough for wholesale beef values, which continued to erode last week.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $6.73 lower week to week on Friday at $214.31 per cwt. Select was $3.09 lower at $205.60. These values remain higher year over year.

Heading into the new week, the brewing trade war between the U.S. and China will continue to maintain center stage in both commodity and equity markets.

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Feeder steers and heifers sold $1-$5/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS); as much as $8 lower on lighter calves in the Southeast. AMS analysts described demand as moderate to good.

“The calf and feeder cattle market are really beginning to be muddled, between a softening finished cattle market and grass fever purchases. This has resulted in a very unsettled market with uncertainty among many in the industry,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments.

Except for $1.92 lower in expiring March, Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $4.40 lower week to week on Thursday; about $11 lower over the last three weeks.

Although futures found some mid-week traction, surging grain prices on Thursday—in response to fewer estimated acres of corn and soybeans—pressured Cattle futures sharply lower. Sharply lower cash fed cattle prices added bearishness.

Live prices were $5 lower in the Southern Plains at $121/cwt.; $3-$4 lower in Nebraska at $120-$122. Dressed trade ended in Nebraska at $190, which was $10-$13 less than the previous week.

“Fed cattle supplies increasing in the weeks ahead and anticipation of lower prices has been the focus of this cattle market. Packers bought the second largest weekly total of cattle purchased for 15 to 30-day delivery since the data series started in March of 2010,” AMS analysts say. “Significant equity vanished from the Cattle complex in recent weeks as feedlot managers trade a substantial amount of cattle out front for future delivery in order to lock in a price ahead of the normal calf-feds hitting the supply chain from late April to early May.”

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $4.62 lower through the front five contracts week to week on Thursday and then an average of $2.42 lower.

“Volatility throughout the futures markets this week held the bulls in check as the bears solidly took over,” AMS analysts say. “The June Live Cattle contract closed on Thursday at the lowest value since late April 2017.”

Increasing beef production also pressured wholesale beef values.

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.05 lower week to week on Friday at $221.04 per cwt. Select was $7.71 lower at $208.69.

Through February, AMS analysts say cattle slaughter is 4.7% more than the same period last year at nearly 5.1 million head; 9.7% more than the three-year average and the most since 2013.

“Federally inspected beef production is up 2.6% year to date, which is an increase of 147 million pounds of beef,” says Griffith. “Similarly, federally inspected pork production has seen an increase of 197 million pounds, or an increase of 3.3% year to date. The negative price pressure is expected to continue as cattle dressed weights continue to exceed year-ago levels and more animals are expected to be harvested.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Markets started the week with a negative tone and ended on an even darker note, with pressure from the percolating trade war with China.

Although there were instances of higher prices for thin-fleshed calves and feeder cattle suited to grazing, the overall trend was solidly lower. Steers and heifers sold $3-$10/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), except for generally $2-$5 lower in the Southeast.

“Feedlots are in no hurry to buy cattle as pen space is limited,” said AMS analysts. “There are concerns of a large number of market-ready cattle in the next quarter, which has the industry looking bearish. Demand for calves has dwindled at the moment as cattle grazers have filled their orders.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.57 lower, week to week on Friday; an average of $6.59 lower over the last two weeks.

“Though a cash price decline should be expected given losses in the futures market, lightweight calf prices are beginning to move lower, when the seasonal tendency would be for a few more weeks of stronger prices,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “This could mean the spring price peak for lightweight calves has already been witnessed and softness can be expected through the remainder of the spring months, as well as the summer and fall months. If the apex on calf prices has been reached, there will likely be a long arduous path to the fall lows.”

Despite continued snug front-end supplies of fed cattle, deteriorating futures prices and the strong basis encouraged cattle feeders to pull the trigger at lower prices.

Negotiated cash fed cattle prices were $1 lower in the Southern Plains at $126 per cwt. Live prices in the Northern Plains were $2-$3 lower at mostly $126. Prices were also $2-$3 lower in the western Corn Belt at $126-$128. Dressed trade was $2-$5 lower at $200-$203.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $3.00 lower week to week on Friday, with most pressure in the nearby contracts.

“One hint of negative sentiment was in the finished cattle market one week ago as cash prices fell below year-ago prices for the first time since September,” Griffith says. “A little more negative sentiment was in the market this week as finished cattle prices softened and cattle feeding margins tightened. Though finished cattle prices are softer, the bigger story is the strong basis at which live cattle are trading. Based on this week’s market, live cattle traded $6 to $7 higher than the April futures contract. The expectation is for the cash price and futures price to converge as the market moves toward the expiration of the April contract. With that being said, serious price movement will have to occur from futures, cash, or both to see convergence.”

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $2.50 lower week to week on Friday at $223.09 per cwt. Select was 46¢ lower at $216.40.

“One aspect of the beef market that has added value is the percentage of cattle grading Choice and Prime,” Griffith says. “For the week ending Mar. 10, 8.4% of cattle graded Prime, resulting in the fifth consecutive week of 8% or better grading Prime. Similarly, the percent of cattle grading Choice has stayed in the range of 72-73% during those five weeks. Higher-grading cattle allow more beef to be moved into higher-valued food service outlets and thus return more value to the industry.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Except for parts of the country where grazing cattle continued to garner steady to higher prices, calves and feeder cattle sold steady to $4/cwt. lower, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

“Auction receipts nationwide typically drop around the first of April, and this year is shaping up to follow that trend,” AMS analysts say. “Year-to-date auction receipts are around 125,000 head behind a year ago, however those totals are 205,000 ahead of the five year average. As the Southern Plains goes through another difficult time with drought conditions, calves being grazed this winter are not as abundant as they typically are in that area.”

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $3.02 lower, week to week on Friday ($2.47 to $3.70 lower).

“The front four months on Live Cattle closed 1.87 to 2.55 lower on the week, while the front five Feeder Cattle contracts were 2.95 to 3.70 lower on the week as bears took over after an early week fed cattle trade that was at higher levels and took some market watchers by surprise,” AMS analysts say.

Live Cattle futures closed an average of $2.14 lower week to week on Friday ($1.02 to $2.55 lower).

Negotiated cash fed cattle sold steady to higher, beginning in the Southern Plains on Tuesday. Prices there were $1 higher than the previous week at $127/cwt. Live trade in the Northern Plains was mainly $1-$2 higher at $128-$129. In the western Corn Belt, prices were $1-$3 higher at $128-$131. Dressed prices there and in Nebraska were $1 higher at $205.

“As fed cattle stay in this trading range, packers continue to move boxed beef at higher levels,” AMS analysts say. Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.45 higher week to week on Friday at $225.59 per cwt. Select was 40¢ lower at $216.86.

Wholesale beef prices have continued to push higher, though the push is a little earlier than normal,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “Choice and Select cutouts have gained $15 and $12 respectively in the past four weeks following flat trade the first month and a half of 2018. Higher cutout prices are being driven by the rib and loin primal, which is to be expected as the market moves closer to grilling season. Rib primal values last week were nearly $44/cwt. higher than the same week one year ago.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Steers and heifers sold steady to $5/cwt. lower last week, although there were instances of steady to $4 higher for cattle suited to summer grazing, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS).

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $1.54 lower across the front half of the board, week to week on Friday and then an average of 29¢ lower.

“Feeder cattle futures have been on a steady decline the past three weeks with losses on most contracts ranging from $6 to $9 during that time period,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “It appears the market is in a bit of a correction mode as Feeder cattle futures contracts have been tracing their steps back to early January lows. The next big question is if the market will continue tracing its steps to the December low. There is no way to tell at this time how low prices will go, but there is strong support at the December lows.”

Griffith points out the market between calves and feeder cattle is beginning to diverge.

“Though yearling cattle prices are higher than the start of the year, the market has started to slow with increased cattle on feed numbers and increased beef production. It may be the third quarter of the year before significant price support is witnessed in the feeder cattle market,” Griffith says.

Cash fed cattle trade for the week was mainly steady at mostly $126-$127/cwt. on a live basis and at mostly $204 in the beef.

After 95¢ higher in spot Apr, Live Cattle futures closed mixed week to week on Friday, from an average of 24¢ lower to an average of 71¢ higher.

“Packer margins are very good and the incentive should be there to pick up the slaughter pace and procure fed cattle,” AMS analysts explain. “Beef demand has been excellent but remains a critical factor going forward as more market-ready cattle become available for the April to June time period.”

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $1.62 higher week to week on Friday at $224.14/cwt. Select was $2.62 higher at $217.26.

“Spot market beef prices have been the highlight of the cattle industry the past few weeks,” Griffith says. “The market has certainly started showing some of the signs of grilling demand, but better yet, the market has been showing signs of strong beef demand. The strong beef demand is not only coming from the domestic market but also from the international market as exports continue to be strong. Not only did beef export volume increase (January), beef export value increased 21% compared to the same month last year and totaled $624.4 million.”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities

Steer and heifer calves sold steady to $5 higher, according to the Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS). Feeder steers and heifers sold steady to $5 lower.

“Buyers were more reserved on feeders headed straight to the feedyard as the CME futures markets were volatile all week long, however, demand was good to very good on calves suitable for grazing,” AMS analysts said.

Feeder Cattle futures closed an average of $2.51 lower across the front half of the board, week to week on Friday and then an average of 93¢ lower.

“It would appear another challenging time is quickly approaching as it relates to markets and cattle prices,” says Andrew P. Griffith, agricultural economist at the University of Tennessee, in his weekly market comments. “The 2018 feeder cattle market started off on a strong note as feeder cattle futures made $10-$12 gains on most contracts, local cash prices increased $10 on feeder cattle and as much as $15/cwt. on calves. The calf and feeder cattle market price swing to the upside was largely due to strong finished cattle prices, which meant cattle feeders had more dollars to spend on cattle to refill the pen. However, many of those pens may be occupied by cattle that came off wheat pasture early and those that would have normally gone to wheat pasture but never had the opportunity. Thus, the weakness that was present in the market this week could be a factor of both reduced finished cattle prices and reduced pen space at some feedlots.”

Negotiated cash fed cattle trade was generally $1-$2 lower than the previous week at $126-$127 in the Southern Plains and Nebraska. Dressed trade was $1-$2 lower at $203-$204.

Except for 37¢ higher in away Jun, Live Cattle futures closed an average of $1.28 lower week to week on Friday (from 22¢ lower at the back to $2.67 lower in spot Apr).

Choice boxed beef cutout value was $4.15 higher week to week on Friday at $222.52/cwt. Select was $1.82 higher at $214.64.

“Most of the support in the week’s price increase came from the rib primal, which gains interest during grilling season,” Griffith explained. “The spring market could very well be in play as retailers make purchases gearing up for the grilling season. If some of these purchases are in fact grilling-season purchases, then retailers and restaurants must think wholesale beef prices could continue moving higher in the next couple of months, which would be the seasonal tendency for rib and loin cuts.”

On the other hand, AMS analysts noted, “With boxed beef values higher, and with Easter fast approaching, beef could find some stiff competition from the retail section with cheaper pork and poultry prices. “Feedyards will need to continue to stay current to keep a significant price drop at bay…”

Friday to Friday Change*

Weekly Auction Receipts

CME Feeder Index

*Thursday-to Thursday for CME Feeder Index

Cash Stocker and Feeder

North Central

South Central

Southeast

(AMS National Weekly Feeder & Stocker Cattle Summary)

Wholesale Beef Value

Futures

Equities